Publications

Article

Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts

By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli

We examine how cultural differences among agents influence the aggregate outcome of a common forecasting task. Using both exogenous shocks to sell-side analyst diversity and panel regression methods, we find that increases in analyst cultural diversity positively... View Details

Keywords: Culture; Forecasting; Sell-side Analysts; Information Aggregation; Diversity; Forecasting and Prediction; Information; Performance Improvement

2024
Working Paper

Valuing Stocks With Earnings

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

We show that commonly used aggregate earnings are several times as volatile as stock prices over the last three decades. Movements in the price-earnings ratio are thus entirely explained by earnings growth and unrelated to future returns. As an alternative to the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Investment Portfolio; Stocks; Behavioral Finance; Accounting

29 Jul 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Can Paying Firms Quicker Affect Aggregate Employment?

Keywords: by Jean-Noel Barrot and Ramana Nanda

06 Feb 2006
What Do You Think?

Should CEOs of Public Companies Offer Earnings Guidance?

Summing Up Based on some of the most thoughtful comments to any of these columns, one might conclude that acceptable earnings guidance by CEOs should take on new forms. Let's first consider the pros and cons, then some research, then some... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett; Financial Services

May 2022
Article

Investment as the Opportunity Cost of Dividend Signaling

By: Zach Kaplan and Gerardo Pérez Cavazos

We provide evidence that firms with weak investment opportunities (those whose current earnings justify a greater valuation than firms with strong investment opportunities) signal their permanent earnings level through their dividends. In the cross-section, we show... View Details

Keywords: Dividends; Earnings; Investment Opportunities; Payout Policy; Signaling; Capital Structure; Business Earnings; Investment; Opportunities

2017
Working Paper

The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer

By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani

We assess the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) serves as an automatic stabilizer to mitigate the economy's sensitivity to shocks. Using a local labor market design based on heterogeneity in local benefit generosity (defined as the percentage of household... View Details

Keywords: Unemployment Insurance; Automatic Stabilizers; Bartik Shocks; Aggregate Demand; System Shocks; Employment; Balance and Stability; Insurance; Volatility; Insurance Industry

2021
Working Paper

Investment as the Opportunity Cost of Dividend Signaling

By: Zach Kaplan and Gerardo Pérez Cavazos

We provide evidence that firms with weak investment opportunities (those whose current earnings justify a greater valuation than firms with strong investment opportunities) signal their permanent earnings level through their dividends. In the cross-section, we show... View Details

Keywords: Dividend Signaling; Investment; Opportunities

August 2024
Article

The Labor Market Effects of Loan Guarantee Programs

By: Jean-Noël Barrot, Thorsten Martin, Julien Sauvagnat and Boris Vallée

We investigate the labor market effects of a loan guarantee program targeting French SMEs during the financial crisis. Exploiting differences in regional treatment intensity in a border discontinuity design, we uncover a central trade-off for such interventions. While... View Details

Keywords: Labor; Financial Crisis; Policy; France

Research Summary

Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing and Liquidity (with Ronnie Sadka)

We document a close link between mispricing and liquidity by investigating stocks with high analyst disagreement. Previous research finds that these stocks tend to be overpriced, but prices correct down as uncertainty about earnings is resolved. We conjecture that one... View Details

27 Feb 2024
Research & Ideas

Why Companies Should Share Their DEI Data (Even When It’s Unflattering)

devised five studies involving more than 4,000 participants to probe how consumers feel about companies’ disclosure decisions. While the data is collected at the job level, whether a company chooses to disclose it in aggregate or break it... View Details

Keywords: by Shalene Gupta

2019
Working Paper

Do Banks Have an Edge?

By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford

Overall, no! We show that the level and time series variation in cash flows for most bank activities are well matched by capital market portfolios with similar interest rate and credit risk to what banks report to hold. Ignoring operating expenses, bank loans earn high... View Details

Keywords: Banks; Market Efficiency; Bank Capital; Bank Debt; CAPM; Banking; Bank Deposits; Bank Funding Advantage; Leverage; Maturity Transformation; Replicating Portfolio; Efficiency; Banks and Banking; Capital Markets; Performance Evaluation; Performance Efficiency; Banking Industry; United States

26 Feb 2008
Working Paper Summaries

Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns

Keywords: by Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen; Financial Services

2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

14 Aug 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Insider Trading Preceding Goodwill Impairments

Keywords: by Karl A. Muller III, Monica Neamtiu & Edward J. Riedl

2022
Article

Values and Inequality: Prosocial Jobs and the College Wage Premium

By: Nathan Wilmers and Letian Zhang

Employers often recruit workers by invoking corporate social responsibility, organizational purpose, or other claims to a prosocial mission. In an era of substantial labor market inequality, commentators typically dismiss these claims as hypocritical: prosocial... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Equality and Inequality; Wages; Recruitment

14 Oct 2011
Working Paper Summaries

The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments

Keywords: by Jakub W. Jurek & Erik Stafford

04 Dec 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, December 4, 2018

to shareholders $7 trillion via buybacks and dividends, over 96% of their aggregate net income, prompting claims that "short-termism" is impairing firms' ability to invest and innovate. We show that, when taking into account both direct... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

22 Feb 2008
Working Paper Summaries

Consumer Demand for Prize-Linked Savings: A Preliminary Analysis

Keywords: by Peter Tufano, Nick Maynard & Jan-Emmanuel De Neve; Financial Services

Article

Signaling Firm Performance Through Financial Statement Presentation: An Analysis Using Special Items

By: Edward J. Riedl and Suraj Srinivasan

This paper investigates whether managers' presentation of special items within the financial statements reflects economic performance or opportunism. Specifically, we assess special items presented as a separate line item on the income statement (income statement... View Details

Keywords: Managerial Roles; Financial Statements; Economics; Performance; Research; Opportunities; Business Earnings; Motivation and Incentives