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  • May 2010
  • Article

Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements

By: William Cready and Umit G Gurun
This analysis identifies a distinct immediate announcement period negative relation between earnings announcement surprises and aggregate market returns. Such a relation implies that market participants use earnings information in forming expectations about expected... View Details
Keywords: Aggregate Earnings; Investment Return; United States
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  • Article

Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts

By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli
We examine how cultural differences among agents influence the aggregate outcome of a common forecasting task. Using both exogenous shocks to sell-side analyst diversity and panel regression methods, we find that increases in analyst cultural diversity positively... View Details
Keywords: Culture; Forecasting; Sell-side Analysts; Information Aggregation; Diversity; Forecasting and Prediction; Information; Performance Improvement
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  • 2024
  • Working Paper

Valuing Stocks With Earnings

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We show that commonly used aggregate earnings are several times as volatile as stock prices over the last three decades. Movements in the price-earnings ratio are thus entirely explained by earnings growth and unrelated to future returns. As an alternative to the... View Details
Keywords: Price; Investment Portfolio; Stocks; Behavioral Finance; Accounting
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  • 29 Jul 2016
  • Working Paper Summaries

Can Paying Firms Quicker Affect Aggregate Employment?

Keywords: by Jean-Noel Barrot and Ramana Nanda
  • 06 Feb 2006
  • What Do You Think?

Should CEOs of Public Companies Offer Earnings Guidance?

Summing Up Based on some of the most thoughtful comments to any of these columns, one might conclude that acceptable earnings guidance by CEOs should take on new forms. Let's first consider the pros and cons, then some research, then some... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett; Financial Services
  • May 2022
  • Article

Investment as the Opportunity Cost of Dividend Signaling

By: Zach Kaplan and Gerardo Pérez Cavazos
We provide evidence that firms with weak investment opportunities (those whose current earnings justify a greater valuation than firms with strong investment opportunities) signal their permanent earnings level through their dividends. In the cross-section, we show... View Details
Keywords: Dividends; Earnings; Investment Opportunities; Payout Policy; Signaling; Capital Structure; Business Earnings; Investment; Opportunities
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  • 2017
  • Working Paper

The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer

By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani
We assess the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) serves as an automatic stabilizer to mitigate the economy's sensitivity to shocks. Using a local labor market design based on heterogeneity in local benefit generosity (defined as the percentage of household... View Details
Keywords: Unemployment Insurance; Automatic Stabilizers; Bartik Shocks; Aggregate Demand; System Shocks; Employment; Balance and Stability; Insurance; Volatility; Insurance Industry
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Investment as the Opportunity Cost of Dividend Signaling

By: Zach Kaplan and Gerardo Pérez Cavazos
We provide evidence that firms with weak investment opportunities (those whose current earnings justify a greater valuation than firms with strong investment opportunities) signal their permanent earnings level through their dividends. In the cross-section, we show... View Details
Keywords: Dividend Signaling; Investment; Opportunities
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  • August 2024
  • Article

The Labor Market Effects of Loan Guarantee Programs

By: Jean-Noël Barrot, Thorsten Martin, Julien Sauvagnat and Boris Vallée
We investigate the labor market effects of a loan guarantee program targeting French SMEs during the financial crisis. Exploiting differences in regional treatment intensity in a border discontinuity design, we uncover a central trade-off for such interventions. While... View Details
Keywords: Labor; Financial Crisis; Policy; France
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  • Research Summary

Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing and Liquidity (with Ronnie Sadka)

We document a close link between mispricing and liquidity by investigating stocks with high analyst disagreement. Previous research finds that these stocks tend to be overpriced, but prices correct down as uncertainty about earnings is resolved. We conjecture that one... View Details
  • 27 Feb 2024
  • Research & Ideas

Why Companies Should Share Their DEI Data (Even When It’s Unflattering)

devised five studies involving more than 4,000 participants to probe how consumers feel about companies’ disclosure decisions. While the data is collected at the job level, whether a company chooses to disclose it in aggregate or break it... View Details
Keywords: by Shalene Gupta
  • 2019
  • Working Paper

Do Banks Have an Edge?

By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford
Overall, no! We show that the level and time series variation in cash flows for most bank activities are well matched by capital market portfolios with similar interest rate and credit risk to what banks report to hold. Ignoring operating expenses, bank loans earn high... View Details
Keywords: Banks; Market Efficiency; Bank Capital; Bank Debt; CAPM; Banking; Bank Deposits; Bank Funding Advantage; Leverage; Maturity Transformation; Replicating Portfolio; Efficiency; Banks and Banking; Capital Markets; Performance Evaluation; Performance Efficiency; Banking Industry; United States
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    Ting Zhang

    Ting Zhang is an Assistant Professor of Business Administration in the Organizational Behavior Unit at Harvard Business School, where she teaches the Leadership and Organizational Behavior course (LEAD) in the Required Curriculum.

    Professor Zhang’s research... View Details
    • 2015
    • Working Paper

    The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

    By: Emil Siriwardane
    I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details
    Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics
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    • 26 Feb 2008
    • Working Paper Summaries

    Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns

    Keywords: by Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen; Financial Services
    • 14 Aug 2009
    • Working Paper Summaries

    Insider Trading Preceding Goodwill Impairments

    Keywords: by Karl A. Muller III, Monica Neamtiu & Edward J. Riedl
    • 2022
    • Article

    Values and Inequality: Prosocial Jobs and the College Wage Premium

    By: Nathan Wilmers and Letian Zhang
    Employers often recruit workers by invoking corporate social responsibility, organizational purpose, or other claims to a prosocial mission. In an era of substantial labor market inequality, commentators typically dismiss these claims as hypocritical: prosocial... View Details
    Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Equality and Inequality; Wages; Recruitment
    Related
    • 14 Oct 2011
    • Working Paper Summaries

    The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments

    Keywords: by Jakub W. Jurek & Erik Stafford
    • 04 Dec 2018
    • First Look

    New Research and Ideas, December 4, 2018

    to shareholders $7 trillion via buybacks and dividends, over 96% of their aggregate net income, prompting claims that "short-termism" is impairing firms' ability to invest and innovate. We show that, when taking into account both direct... View Details
    Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
    • 22 Feb 2008
    • Working Paper Summaries

    Consumer Demand for Prize-Linked Savings: A Preliminary Analysis

    Keywords: by Peter Tufano, Nick Maynard & Jan-Emmanuel De Neve; Financial Services