Publications

Article

A Macroprudential Approach to Financial Regulation

By: Samuel G. Hanson, Anil Kashyap and Jeremy C. Stein

Keywords: Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Finance

2012
Working Paper

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks

June 2010
Article

A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

We argue that time-series variation in the maturity of aggregate corporate debt issues arises because firms behave as macro liquidity providers, absorbing the large supply shocks associated with changes in the maturity structure of government debt. We document that... View Details

Keywords: Business Ventures; Decision Choices and Conditions; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Liquidity; Investment Return; Government and Politics

2010
Mimeo

An Analysis of the Impact of 'Substantially Heightened' Capital Requirements on Large Financial Institutions

By: Anil Kashyap, Jeremy C. Stein and Samuel G. Hanson

We examine the impact of "substantially heightened" capital requirements on large financial institutions, and on their customers. Our analysis yields three main conclusions. First, the frictions associated with raising new external equity finance are likely to be... View Details

Keywords: Financial Institutions; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Capital; Equity; Financing and Loans; Credit

September 2008
Article

Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification

By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann

This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States

2008
Mimeo

Do Hedge Funds Profit from Mutual-Fund Distress?

By: Joseph Chen, Samuel G. Hanson, Harrison Hong and Jeremy C. Stein

This paper explores the question of whether hedge funds engage in frontrunning strategies that exploit the predictable trades of others. One potential opportunity for front-running arises when distressed mutual funds—those suffering large outflows of assets under... View Details

Keywords: Investment Funds; Profit; Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Opportunities; Asset Management; Sales

SSRN

August 2006
Article

Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann

In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details

Keywords: Credit Risk; Bootstrap; Mathematical Methods; Credit; Risk Management

Forthcoming
Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin

Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit

Forthcoming
Article

Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos

We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Interest Rates; Bonds; Financial Markets

Forthcoming
Article

The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications

By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Daniel K. Tarullo

As revealed by the failures of three regional banks in the spring of 2023, bank runs are not a thing of the past. To inform the ongoing discussion of the appropriate regulatory response, we examine trends in the banking industry over the last twenty-five years. On the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Instruments; Financial Crisis; Assets; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Financial Condition; Banking Industry