Publications

April 2002
Article

Limited Arbitrage in Mergers and Acquisitions

By: Malcolm Baker and Serkan Savasoglu

A diversified portfolio of risk arbitrage positions produces an abnormal return of 0.6-0.9% per month over the period from 1981 to 1996. We trace these profits to practical limits on risk arbitrage. In our model of risk arbitrage, arbitrageurs' risk-bearing capacity... View Details

Keywords: Arbitrage; Market Efficiency; Mergers and Acquisitions; Profit; Risk and Uncertainty; Corporate Strategy; Capital; Banking Industry

2002
Other Unpublished Work

Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein

We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details

Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return

February 2002
Article

Market Timing and Capital Structure

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

It is well known that firms tend to raise equity when their market values are high relative to book and past market values. We document that the resulting effects on capital structure are very persistent. As a consequence, current capital structure is strongly related... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Equity; Capital Structure; Theory; Market Timing; Financial Markets

2002
Other Unpublished Work

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

2001
Working Paper

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler

We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Equity; Stocks; Price; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

January 2001 (Revised July 2003)
Case

Pharmacyclics: Financing Research & Development

By: Malcolm P. Baker, Richard S. Ruback and Aldo Sesia

Pharmacyclics (NASDAQ: PCYC), a pharmaceutical company that manufactures products that will improve existing therapeutic treatments for cancer, arteriosclerosis, and retinal disease, was considering a $60 million private placement in February 2000. The company had more... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Cash Flow; Financing and Loans; Business Startups; Financial Strategy; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; Health Industry

Educators

Purchase

October 2000
Article

The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has... View Details

Keywords: Equity; Borrowing and Debt; Stocks; Markets; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting Industry; United States

2000
Other Unpublished Work

Career Concerns and Staged Investment: Evidence from the Venture Capital Industry

By: Malcolm Baker

I develop a model in which career concerns lead to inefficient reinvestment decisions. Managers have incentives to inflate interim returns by continuing bad projects and delaying write-offs. In the venture capital industry, the syndication of follow-on investments can... View Details

Keywords: Performance Efficiency; Valuation; Venture Capital; Investment; Decisions; Motivation and Incentives; Quality

1999
Other Unpublished Work

Executive Ownership and Control in Newly Public Firms: The Role of Venture Capitalists

By: Malcolm Baker and Paul Gompers

We study the implications of CEO equity ownership for incentives and control in a sample of 1,011 newly public firms. Before an initial public offering, equity investments by venture capitalists reduce CEO ownership by about half, from an average of 35 percent to 19... View Details

Keywords: Equity; Ownership; Motivation and Incentives; Initial Public Offering; Investment; Venture Capital; Managerial Roles; Cost Management; Governance Controls; Executive Compensation

1999
Other Unpublished Work

Estimating Industry Multiples

By: Malcolm Baker and R. S. Ruback

We analyze industry multiples for the S&P 500 in 1995. We use Gibbs sampling to estimate simultaneously the error specification and small sample minimum variance multiples for 22 industries. In addition, we consider the performance of four common multiples: the simple... View Details

Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Performance; Mathematical Methods

1998
Article

Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods

By: Malcolm Baker, E. S. Mayfield and John Parsons

This paper provides an introduction to alternative models of uncertain commodity prices. A model of commodity price movements is the engine around which any valuation methodology for commodity production projects is built, whether discounted cash flow (DCF) models or... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Goods and Commodities; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Production; Projects; Cash Flow