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Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race (joint with Fabio Kanczuk)
By: Laura Alfaro
There are different arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debt which broadly include the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model these arguments and calibrate the model to assess the quantitative importance... View Details
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On the Political Economy of Stabilization Programs
By: Laura Alfaro
This paper provides a political economy explanation for temporary exchange-rate-based stabilization programs by focusing on the distributional effects of real exchange-rate appreciation. I propose an economy in which agents are endowed with either tradable or... View Details
- Research Summary
Optimal Reserve Management and Sovereign Debt (with Fabio Kanczuk)
By: Laura Alfaro
Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. Some of the implications of this analysis, however, may not be generalized once one considers the joint decision to hold debt and reserves by a... View Details
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Selection and Market Reallocation: Productivity Gains from Multinational Production
By: Laura Alfaro
Assessing the productivity gains from multinational production has been a vital topic of economic research and policy debate. Positive aggregate productivity gains are often attributed to within-firm productivity improvement; however, an alternative, less emphasized... View Details
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Selection, Reallocation, and Spillover: Identifying the Sources of Gains from Multinational Production (with Maggie Chen)
By: Laura Alfaro
Quantifying the gains from multinational production has been a vital topic of economic research. Positive productivity gains are often attributed to knowledge spillover from multinational to domestic firms. An alternative, less stressed explanation is firm selection... View Details
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Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: A Quantitative Approach (joint with Fabio Kanczuk)
By: Laura Alfaro
We construct a dynamic equilibrium model with contingent service and adverse selection to quantitatively study sovereign debt. In the model, benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. For a wide parameter, the only equilibrium is one in which... View Details
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Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows and Global Imbalances
By: Laura Alfaro
We construct measures of net private and public capital flows for a large cross-section of developing countries considering both creditor and debtor side of the international debt transactions. Using these measures, we demonstrate that sovereign-to-sovereign... View Details
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Spatial Agglomeration and Superstar Firms
By: Laura Alfaro
We characterize the agglomeration patterns of industries and plants in Europe, distinguishing Eurozone countries and the United States. Using a micro-level index, we quantify the degree of geographic concentration in industrial activities and explore how firm... View Details
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Surviving the Global Financial Crisis: Foreign Ownership and Establishment Performance
By: Laura Alfaro
We examine the differential response of establishments to the recent global financial crisis with particular emphasis on the role of foreign ownership. Using a worldwide establishment panel dataset, we investigate how multinational subsidiaries around the world... View Details
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The Global Agglomeration of Multinational Firms
By: Laura Alfaro
The explosion of multinational activities in recent decades is rapidly transforming the global landscape of industrial production. But are the emerging clusters of multinational production the rule or the exception? What drives the offshore agglomeration of... View Details
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The Global Networks of Multinational Firms (with Maggie Chen)
By: Laura Alfaro
In this paper we characterize the topology of global multinational networks and examine the macro and micro patterns of multinational activity. We construct indices of network density at both pairwise industry and establishment level and measure agglomeration in a... View Details
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The Real Effects of Capital Controls: Financial Constraints, Exporters, and Firm Investment
By: Laura Alfaro
In aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, emerging-market governments have increasingly restricted foreign capital inflows. The data show a statistically significant drop in cumulative abnormal returns for Brazilian firms following capital control... View Details
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The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity
By: Laura Alfaro
We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'... View Details
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Undisclosed Debt Sustainability
By: Laura Alfaro
Over the past decade, non-Paris Club creditors, notably China, have become an important source of financing for low- and middle-income countries. In contrast with typical sovereign debt, these lending arrangements are not public, and other creditors have no information... View Details
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Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation (joint with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Vadym Volosovych)
By: Laura Alfaro
We examine the role of different explanations for the lack of
flows of capital from rich to poor countries -- the Lucas paradox
-- in an empirical framework. Broadly, the theoretical
explanations for this paradox include differences in fundamentals
affecting the... View Details
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