Publications

SSRN

April 2018 (Revised March 2019)
Case

Tesla-SolarCity

By: E. Scott Mayfield and Emil N. Siriwardane

On June 21, 2016, Tesla Motors, Inc. announced its offer to acquire SolarCity, bringing CEO Elon Musk one step closer to completing his goal of moving the world from a hydrocarbon-based economy to a solar-electric one. Markets and analysts were mixed in their reaction... View Details

Keywords: Tesla; SolarCity; Solar Power; Mergers and Acquisitions; Renewable Energy; Goals and Objectives; Finance

Educators

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February 2018
Article

Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection

By: Robert F. Engle and Emil N. Siriwardane

During the financial crisis, financial firm leverage and volatility both rose dramatically. Consequently, institutions are being asked to reduce leverage in order to reduce risk, though the effectiveness depends upon the role of capital structure in volatility. To... View Details

Keywords: Leverage; Credit Risk; Crisis Management; Equity; Volatility; Credit; Risk Management; Financial Crisis

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Article

Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment

By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane

We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Stress Testing; Interest Rates; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; United States

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September 2017 (Revised September 2022)
Supplement

Asset Allocation at the Cook County Pension Fund

By: Emil Nuwan Siriwardane

Purchase

September 2017 (Revised July 2021)
Case

Asset Allocation at the Cook County Pension Fund

By: Emil Siriwardane, Juliane Begenau and Yuval Gonczarowski

Nickol Hackett, chief investment officer of the Cook County Pension Fund, is responsible for investing the fund’s $9 billion worth of assets on behalf of the employees of Cook County, Illinois. Like many other defined-benefit pensions at the time, the Cook County... View Details

Keywords: Asset Management; Investment Funds; Financial Strategy; Decision Choices and Conditions

Educators

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2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

SSRN

2024
Working Paper

Fire Sales of Safe Assets

By: Gabor Pinter, Emil Siriwardane and Danny Walker

We use trade-level data to study price pressure effects in the UK gilt market from September to October 2022. During this period, forced sales by liability-driven investment funds (LDIs) led to price discounts on the order of 10%, accounting for roughly half the total... View Details

Keywords: Investment Funds; Capital Markets; United Kingdom

Research Summary

Concentrated Capital Losses and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk

In studying the U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market, Professor Siriwardane has discovered that the selling of CDS protection is extremely concentrated, with five sellers accounting for nearly half the market. Further, in contrast to what neoclassical theory... View Details

Research Summary

Overview

In his research, Professor Siriwardane seeks to develop a quantitative understanding of how the financial sector affects asset prices and macroeconomic stability, particularly relevant in the wake of the financial crisis of the last decade. View Details

Research Summary

Rare Consumption Disasters

Another defining feature of financial crises is consumption disasters, or large drops in aggregate consumption. Rather than taking the standard approach of seeking implications of such rare disasters for asset pricing in consumption data, Professor Siriwardane asks... View Details

Forthcoming
Article

Segmented Arbitrage

By: Emil Siriwardane, Adi Sunderam and Jonathan Wallen

We use arbitrage activity in equity, fixed income, and foreign exchange markets to characterize the frictions and constraints facing intermediaries. The average pairwise correlation between the 32 arbitrage spreads that we study is 22%. These low correlations are... View Details

Keywords: Financial Intermediation; Arbitrage; Intermediary-based Asset Pricing; Finance; Segmentation

Research Summary

The Connection Between Volatility and Leverage