Publications

Purchase

2024
Other Unpublished Work

A Proposal for the IMF: A New Instrument of International Liquidity Provision for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

By: Laura Alfaro, Guillermo Calvo, José de Gregorio, Augusto de la Torre, Pablo Guidotti, Enrique Mendoza, Ernesto Talvi, Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Andrés Velasco

This paper addresses a critical flaw in the international financial system: the failure to address the inherent asymmetry between countries that issue reserve currencies and those that do not, leaving the latter vulnerable during systemic liquidity crises. We propose... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Emerging Markets; Financial Markets; International Finance; Developing Countries and Economies; Latin America

2024
Working Paper

Bank Capital and the Growth of Private Credit

By: Sergey Chernenko, Robert Ialenti and David Scharfstein

We show that business development companies (BDCs)—closed-end funds that provide a significant share of nonbank loans to middle market firms—are very well capitalized according to bank capital frameworks. They have median risk-based capital ratios of about 36%... View Details

Keywords: Financing and Loans; Capital; Credit; Financial Institutions

September–October 2024
Article

Boards Need a New Approach to Technology

By: Tarun Khanna, Mary C. Beckerle and Nabil Y. Sakkab

The boards of too many publicly traded companies are downright timid when considering matters involving science and technology. More often than not, they focus on security and digitization—a defensive posture that fails to consider the bigger opportunities emerging... View Details

Keywords: Governing and Advisory Boards; Opportunities; Technology Adoption

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October 2024
Article

Canary Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester

Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details

Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry

Purchase

October 2024
Article

Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship

By: Michael Ewens, Ramana Nanda and Christopher Stanton

We show theoretically that a critical determinant of the attractiveness of VC-backed entrepreneurship for high-earning potential founders is the expected time to develop a startup’s initial product. This is because founder-CEOs’ cash compensation increases... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Executive Compensation

2025
Working Paper

Global Evidence on Gender Gaps and Generative AI

By: Nicholas G. Otis, Solène Delecourt, Katelynn Cranney and Rembrand Koning

Generative AI has the potential to transform productivity and reduce inequality, but only if adopted broadly. In this paper, we show that recently identified gender gaps in generative AI use are nearly universal. Synthesizing data from 18 studies covering more than... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Gender; Equality and Inequality; Technology Adoption; Behavior

October 2024
Article

Global Mobile Inventors

By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury, Ernest Miguelez and Sara Signorelli

The number of Global Mobile Inventors (GMIs), inventors moving across borders during their career, has increased more than tenfold over the past two decades, and the corridors of mobility have shifted towards a growing presence of emerging markets. We document that... View Details

Keywords: Emerging Markets; Immigration; Patents; Knowledge; Technological Innovation

2024
White Paper

Hidden Workers: The Case for Caregivers

By: Joseph B. Fuller, Manjari Raman and Francis Hintermann

Keywords: Labor; Work-Life Balance; Selection and Staffing; Retention

October 2024
Article

How to Use Sales Assessments

By: Frank V. Cespedes

Judging a person’s fit for a sales job is complex, and research shows that managers greatly overrate their ability to predict someone’s performance on the basis of interviews. Hence, using assessments is a growing trend in sales hiring and training. This article... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Sales

October 2024
Supplement

LFM Capital: Turnaround at Pratt Industries (B)

By: Ted Berk

October 2024
Article

On Why Women-owned Businesses Take More Time to Secure Microloans

By: Goran Calic, Moren Lévesque and Anton Shevchenko

Examining gender differences in business financing reveals important dimensions on which women- and men-owned businesses differ. Although considerable progress has been made in understanding gender differences in mobilizing resources, the role of time in business... View Details

Keywords: Microfinance; Gender; Financing and Loans; Equality and Inequality; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Choices and Conditions; Entrepreneurship

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2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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2024
Working Paper

Ponzi Funds

By: Philippe van der Beck, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud and Dario Villamaina

Many active funds hold concentrated portfolios. Flow-driven trading causes price pressure, which pushes up the funds’ existing positions resulting in realized returns. We decompose fund returns into a price pressure (self-inflated) and a fundamental component and... View Details

Keywords: Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Price Bubble; Financial Reporting; Financial Liquidity

SSRN

2024
Working Paper

Priors, Experiments, Learning and Persuasion in (Bayesian) Entrepreneurial Finance

By: Ramana Nanda

At the heart of entrepreneurial finance lies a persuasion challenge: regardless of the strength of an entrepreneur’s belief in the potential of their idea, they typically need to convince investors to provide the financial capital required for its... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurial Finance; Business Startups; Communication Intention and Meaning; Prejudice and Bias

SSRN

October 2024
Article

Racial Disparities in the Paycheck Protection Program

By: Sergey Chernenko and David S. Scharfstein

Using a large sample of Florida restaurants, we document significant racial disparities in borrowing through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and investigate the causes of these disparities. Black-owned restaurants are 25% less likely to receive PPP loans.... View Details

Keywords: Discrimination; Paycheck Protection Program; Economic Injury Disaster Loans; Bank Lending; Nonbank Lending; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Prejudice and Bias; Race