Doing Business with China 2035: Navigating Uncertainty
Course Number 1575
7 Sessions
Paper
Office Hours: TBD, Morgan Hall 147
Note: EC MBA students who are interested in earning an additional 1.5 credits through a related Independent Project are encouraged to reach out to Prof. Kirby at term start.
By 2035 China will be the largest economy in the world and an innovation superpower. Engagement with China—as entrepreneurs, investors, or partners—is part of our collective future.
But in 2025, Chinese firms—and foreign firms in China—face challenges and opportunities under President Xi Jinping. We will delve into China's domestic business environment and the changing relationship between the private sector and the Chinese Communist Party. Students will gain an understanding of the dynamics between state-owned enterprises and private firms, the regulatory environment, and the role of the government in business activities.
Furthermore, as relations between the world's two largest economies, the U.S. and China, deteriorate further, companies must find creative solutions to counter ongoing global trade and technology wars while still responding to ever-changing policy directions in Beijing, Washington, and Europe. Our course will examine case studies of firms that have faced these challenges and will equip students with strategies for managing geopolitical risk in a deglobalizing business environment.
Ultimately, how can you succeed in doing business in and with China in the coming decade and beyond?
In our course, we consider these questions:
- How do foreign businesses succeed and fail in Chinese markets?
- How can Chinese firms, such as Huawei, DJI and ByteDance, navigate investment restrictions that threaten to "decouple" the U.S. economy from China's?
- What happens to firms caught in the cross-fire of deteriorating US-China relations?
- Will China's ambitions to become a "self-sufficient" superpower succeed or flounder? What about the United States’ attempt to “re-shore” semiconductor manufacturing?
- How do the Communist Party and Chinese governments—local, provincial, and national—shape market opportunities?
- How do Chinese firms expand overseas?
- How do family businesses survive and thrive in an economy where the state still plays such a large role?
- Will Chinese universities lead the 21st century?
- What are the opportunities and risks for businesses in Taiwan, as "greater China" becomes integrated economically but with greater tension politically and militarily?
- In short, where is China going—economically and politically—and what will it mean for you?
We will be joined in this course by CEOs of many of the enterprises we study, in industries such as telecommunications, healthcare, consumer products, agribusiness, semiconductors, education, and automobiles.
Course Overview
This course prepares Harvard Business School students for their lifetime of engagement with China. It is built around a sequence of field cases, ranging from internet startups to revitalized state-owned enterprises (SOEs), across a wide range of geographical and product markets. This stands in addition to a series of technical notes address the cultural, economic, political, labor, resource and environmental contexts that shape business environments in China and elsewhere. Leading China observers and CEOs of major Chinese firms will visit the class.
Through cases, notes, discussion, and research, students explore the opportunities and risks of international and Chinese business in China and the outward expansion of Chinese firms. Key issues include:
- The nature of China’s political, economic, and of its regional markets
- The central role of politics in business: How well do you know your Party Secretary?
- The interconnectedness of global supply chains and difficulties with diversification
- The evolution of Chinese SOEs into modern, global corporations
- The diverse political risks Chinese firms encounter in foreign markets
- The challenges of developing public affairs strategies outside China
- Challenges and opportunities facing start-ups
- The special and evolving characteristic of China’s capital markets
- Strategies for protecting and developing intellectual property
- The emergence of an increasingly powerful middle class and its impact on the consumer market and corporate social responsibility
Audience
This course is suitable for any student interested in understanding emerging markets, government-business relations, and the impact of China’s remarkable economic and political transformation on international business. No prior knowledge or experience with China’s business environment is required. Cross-registrants are welcome.
Course Requirements and Grading
- Class participation based on assigned reading material: 50%
- Written Assignment: an essay on a topic of choice or an outline of a prospective HBS case: 40%
- U.S.-China policy memos short writing assignment: 5%
- Know your geography map quiz: 5%
Questions to help guide the reading of assigned materials will be released in advance of class on Canvas (no written response needed).
Final Project (Q4 FIELD COURSE: The United States and China: Challenges for your Business)
The Q4 class is an optional continuation of Q3, designed for students, working individually or in groups, who wish to pursue an advanced project, under faculty guidance. It assists students who wish to pursue business opportunities in or with Greater China (the People’s Republic, Taiwan, and Hong Kong). It presumes basic knowledge of the Chinese business, economic, and political scene, as taught in Doing Business with China.
The project may take the form of a business plan for an enterprise in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan; research on a company or sector written in the form of an HBS case; or a related research project. Students will work closely with faculty to identify a topic and relevant source materials. Q4 course grades will be based 60% on the final project and 40% on participation, the latter of which includes research presentations that will be delivered throughout the quarter.
NOTE: class sequence may change to accommodate guest schedules
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