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- Research (4)
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- 28 Oct 2024
- Op-Ed
Latino Voters Have Grown More Politically Divided. That’s Not Surprising.
a doctoral student in economics at University of California, Berkeley; Vincent Pons, is the Byron Wein Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School; and... View Details
- 07 Oct 2024
- Research & Ideas
Election 2024: Why Demographics Won't Predict the Next President
would be better off flipping a coin to determine a probable winner. “We find that even guessing at a 50-50 level is just as good, if not actually better, than using some demographic forecasts,” says Vincent View Details
Keywords: by Jay Fitzgerald
- Web
Business, Government & the International Economy - Faculty & Research
fashion brand. 2024 Chapter What Future for the Renminbi in the Global Monetary System? By: Meg Rithmire and Edoardo Campanella 2024 Working Paper Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections By: View Details
- Web
Entrepreneurial Management - Faculty & Research
other emerging markets than were businesses developed in and for the U.S. or other high-income countries. 2024 Working Paper Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections By: Richard View Details
- Web
Faculty & Research - Entrepreneurship
examples are part of a more systematic pattern, documented extensively in Lerner et al. (2024), in which businesses developed in China were more applicable to the demands, c... More Research 2024 Working Paper Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections By:... View Details
- Web
Human Behavior & Decision-Making - Faculty & Research
About Sustaining Long-Term Growth Re: Jo Tango & Christina M. Wallace 07 Oct 2024 Election 2024: Why Demographics Won't Predict the Next President Re: Vincent Pons & Jesse... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics
Calvo, Richard, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33016, October 2024.
- 03 Nov 2009
- First Look
First Look: Nov. 3
Field Experiment in Zambia Authors:Nava Ashraf, James Berry, and Jesse M. Shapiro Publication:American Economic Review (forthcoming) Abstract The... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace