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- Faculty Publications (8)
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight
By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details
Keywords: Experience; Interdependency; Strategic Foresight; Crowdfunding; Timeline; Delay; Forecasting; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Complexity; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development; Planning
Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-123, January 2021. (Revised May 2021.)
- 2020
- Working Paper
Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty
By: J. Peter Scoblic
This paper proposes to treat strategic foresight as a dynamic capability, providing a new theoretical lens on managerial judgment. Formulating strategy under uncertainty is a central challenge facing the modern firm. Analogy is thought to help managers make sense of... View Details
Keywords: Foresight; Dynamic Capabilities; Managerial Judgment; Risk and Uncertainty; Management; Strategy
Scoblic, J. Peter. "Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-093, March 2020.
- December 2021
- Article
Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight
By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details
Keywords: Crowdfunding; Experience; Prediction; Timeline; Complexity; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction
Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Art. 1. Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 13 (December 2021): 2357–2388. (Lead article.)
- September 2005
- Article
Managerial Foresight and Attempted Rent Appropriation: Insider Trading on Knowledge of Imminent Breakthroughs
By: Gautam Ahuja, Russell W. Coff and Peggy M. Lee
In order to establish a competitive advantage, firms must acquire or create resources at a price below their value in use. Absent pure luck, this requires managers to exercise foresight about a resource's future value and/or complementarities with pre-existing... View Details
Ahuja, Gautam, Russell W. Coff, and Peggy M. Lee. "Managerial Foresight and Attempted Rent Appropriation: Insider Trading on Knowledge of Imminent Breakthroughs." Strategic Management Journal 26, no. 9 (September 2005): 791–808.
- 02 Apr 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty
Keywords: by J. Peter Scoblic
- Summer 2014
- Article
When Does a Platform Create Value by Limiting Choice?
By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Hanna Halaburda
We present a theory for why it might be rational for a platform to limit the number of applications available on it. Our model is based on the observation that even if users prefer application variety, applications often also exhibit direct network effects. When there... View Details
Keywords: Platform Governance; Direct Network Effects; Indirect Network Effects; Complements; Tragedy Of The Commons; Equilibrium Selection; Coordination; Foresight; Strategy; Value Creation; Digital Platforms; Balance and Stability; Decision Choices and Conditions; Consumer Behavior; Applications and Software; Network Effects
Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Hanna Halaburda. "When Does a Platform Create Value by Limiting Choice?" Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 23, no. 2 (Summer 2014): 259–293.
- November 2009
- Article
What Would Peter Say?
Heeding the wisdom of Peter Drucker might have helped us avoid - and will help us solve - numerous challenges, from restoring trust in business to tackling climate change. He issued early warnings about excessive executive pay, the auto industry's failure to adapt and... View Details
Keywords: Judgments; Employee Relationship Management; Leadership; Goals and Objectives; Management Practices and Processes; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Business and Shareholder Relations
Kanter, Rosabeth Moss. "What Would Peter Say?" Harvard Business Review 87, no. 11 (November 2009).
- 2008
- Other Unpublished Work
Punctuated Identities and the Careers of Professional Women
This paper proposes a punctuated equilibrium model of identity change to explain how professional women's career goals and attitudes can change rapidly and dramatically during mid-career years. Data collected from interviews of 43 women alumni of an elite business... View Details
- 14 Feb 2022
- Research & Ideas
Curiosity, Not Coding: 6 Skills Leaders Need in the Digital Age
themselves. However, the qualities they need to develop aren’t the ones you might expect. You might think an organization in flux needs a steady hand, someone with foresight and experience who plots a sensible route to cautiously and... View Details
- 31 Jan 2022
- Research & Ideas
Where Can Digital Transformation Take You? Insights from 1,700 Leaders
decisions. Analytics are important, but judgment and critical thinking ultimately set the roadmap. All employees, not just the data scientists, use data to develop new insights and foresight instead of relying on past experience. Given... View Details
- 13 Nov 2019
- Research & Ideas
Don't Turn Your Marketing Function Over to AI Just Yet
machine learning tools, says Amano, and employ people who can communicate effectively about data-based approaches. Ultimately, managers who have the foresight to collaborate with data analysts to design data collection efforts and stagger... View Details
Keywords: by Kristen Senz
- 17 Dec 2008
- Lessons from the Classroom
‘Ted Levitt Changed My Life’
his humor was carefully orchestrated to make a point." Levitt's sheer foresight also came into play in the classroom; Beverly Brandt (HBS MBA '72) recalls one case discussion in particular that foreshadowed the rise of women in the... View Details
- 06 Dec 2004
- What Do You Think?
Why Do Managers Fail to Act on Their Predictions?
Summing Up Respondents to the December column produced such a lengthy list of reasons why managers fail to act on their predictions that it is a wonder that organizations are ever able to respond with the foresight needed to avert... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
- 12 Oct 1999
- Research & Ideas
The Intellectual Underpinnings of Entrepreneurial Management
those focused on innovation, and those focused on new venture startup. Since Cantillon's time, many arguments have persisted about the risk-bearing aspect of entrepreneurship. Many studies of entrepreneurs (including autobiographies) tend to focus on View Details
- 16 Feb 2012
- Op-Ed
Nitin Nohria: Why US Competitiveness Matters
their government—a distinct contrast to the current sentiment in the United States. Almost all the Chinese executives I met believe that their nation's leaders possess the foresight and the courage to think long term. These executives are... View Details
Keywords: by Nitin Nohria
- 05 Sep 2008
- What Do You Think?
Is Case Method Instruction Due for an Overhaul?
But as Shahid Sheikh put it, "in foresight ... there never are right (or perfect) answers ...." Seconding that notion in practice (vs. theory), Kim Allen suggested that "Case studies would be a great addition to science... View Details
- 24 Jul 2014
- Op-Ed
Reform Tax Law to Keep US Firms at Home
advance, or in lieu, of broader reform, it is useful to recall that the last wave of anti-inversion legislation likely spurred these more significant, recent transactions and reduced the prospect of reform in these intervening years. Members of the Committee, I admire... View Details
- 24 May 2004
- Research & Ideas
Becoming an Ethical Negotiator
does it." Q: What makes a great, ethical negotiator in your view? A: Foresight is critical to maintaining ethical standards. People get into trouble when they make hasty decisions, or when they feel as if they've been backed into a... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace
- 08 Apr 2002
- Research & Ideas
How to Negotiate “Yes” Across Cultural Boundaries
potential influences. Instead, Stone's lack of foresight caused it to become enmeshed in an adversarial, multiparty process that ultimately failed. When interviewed for a Harvard Business School case, Stone executive Jerry Freeman likened... View Details
Keywords: by James K. Sebenius
- 05 Feb 2001
- What Do You Think?
Do MBA Programs Face “The Innovator’s Dilemma”?
to whom the traditional in-residence MBA might not otherwise be accessible. But it extends also, in the eyes of respondents, to those onsite programs with the foresight to take advantage of the unique capabilities inherent in their online... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett