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  • 18 Mar 2014
  • First Look

First Look: March 18

simplicity of accepting an equal split with the costs of negotiating a differentiated allocation of founder equity. We test the predictions of the theory on a proprietary dataset comprised of 1,476 founders in 511 entrepreneurial... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 04 Dec 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, December 4, 2018

certification programs are understandable and largely predictable if the ideas, interests, and power of key actors are accurately assessed. When alignment and power are high, Northern programs will likely succeed. When they are low, they... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 1972
  • Chapter

Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance

By: Michael Jensen
Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation
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  • October 2024
  • Article

Canary Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
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  • January 2021
  • Article

Using Models to Persuade

By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model... View Details
Keywords: Model Persuasion; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Framework
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  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.

By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details
Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption
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  • 05 Jul 2017
  • What Do You Think?

Can Innovation Save Us From Ourselves?

Summing Up Do We Need to Give More Attention to the Dark Side of Innovation? Innovation may be able to help us deal with problems such as famine, pollution, and even global warming. But unless it can prove to be just as effective in combating destructive human traits... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett; Technology
  • 24 Aug 2010
  • First Look

First Look: August 24

The Role of Employee Proactivity Authors:A. M. Grant, F. Gino, and D. Hofmann Publication:Academy of Management Journal (forthcoming) Abstract Extraversion predicts leadership emergence and effectiveness, but do groups perform more... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 24 Apr 2007
  • First Look

First Look: April 24, 2007

account for such agglomeration have been proposed. We note that these theories make different predictions about which pairs of industries should be coagglomerated. We discuss the measurement of coagglomeration and use data from the Census... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • May 2018
  • Article

Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change

By: Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca
Data from digital platforms have the potential to improve our understanding of gentrification and enable new measures of how neighborhoods change in close to real time. Combining data on businesses from Yelp with data on gentrification from the Census, Federal Housing... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods; Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, And Changes; Geographic Location; Local Range; Transition; Analytics and Data Science; Measurement and Metrics; Economic Growth; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • October 2002 (Revised January 2013)
  • Case

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts

By: Paul M. Healy
Krispy Kreme is a rapidly growing firm with a business model that has excited Wall Street. View Details
Keywords: Business Growth and Maturation; Business Model; Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Reporting; Performance Evaluation; Business Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; New York (city, NY)
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  • January 2001 (Revised March 2002)
  • Case

Ford Motor Company's Value Enhancement Plan

By: Andre F. Perold
In April 2000, Ford Motor Co. announced a shareholder Value Enhancement Plan (VEP) to significantly recapitalize the firm's ownership structure. Ford had accumulated $23 billion in cash reserves and under the VEP would return as much as $10 billion of this cash to... View Details
Keywords: Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Structure; Cash; Financial Liquidity; Policy; Business and Shareholder Relations; Value; Auto Industry
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  • 19 Feb 2008
  • News

The Scoop Behind the Silver Screen

Clayton up this weekend for seven Academy Awards. (Any predictions out there on the winners?) Samuels drew an analogy between the real estate industry and filmmaking. “I look at a movie script the same way I look at an empty piece of... View Details
Keywords: Arts, Entertainment; Business Schools & Computer & Management Training; Educational Services; Real Estate
  • May 2010
  • Supplement

Tremblant Capital Group Exhibits (CW)

By: Robin Greenwood
Brett Barakett, CEO and founder of Tremblant Capital Group, a New York-based hedge fund, must decide what to do with his fund's position in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, which has dropped in value by more than 40 percent in recent months. Tremblant is a hedge fund... View Details
Keywords: Transformation; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Stocks; Investment Funds; Consumer Behavior; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; New York (state, US)
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  • June 2010
  • Teaching Note

The Southeast Bank of Texas in the Financial Crisis (TN)

By: Robert C. Pozen and Benjamin Greff Schneider
Teaching Note for 310141. View Details
Keywords: Banks and Banking; Financial Crisis; Decision Choices and Conditions; Financial Liquidity; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Banking Industry; Texas
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  • March 2017 (Revised March 2022)
  • Case

Flashion: Art vs. Science in Fashion Retailing

By: Kris Ferreira and Karim R. Lakhani
Kate Wilson, retail analytics manager at Flashion, a fashion flash-sale site, is tasked with developing analytics to optimize pricing for first-exposure products on the site. Many in the industry have relied on years of experience and intuition to determine pricing—can... View Details
Keywords: Analytics; Pricing; Data; Service Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption; Mathematical Methods; Decision Making; E-commerce; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry; United States
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  • 07 Dec 2015
  • Research & Ideas

Why Immigrant Workers Cluster in Particular Industries

economists predict the effects of changes in immigration of specific ethnic groups. “This notion that if you opened up the immigration spigot then entrepreneurship would happen everywhere is probably not true,” he says. “But if you were... View Details
Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Transportation; Beauty & Cosmetics; Retail
  • 01 Oct 1997
  • News

Antitrust in Historical Perspective

upside down and might end up destroying it altogether. Some people even predicted that one huge trust would come to dominate the entire American economy. This may seem funny now, but in the context of the times it did not. At the turn of... View Details
Keywords: Thomas K. McCraw and Richard S. Tedlow
  • 10 Nov 2015
  • First Look

November 10, 2015

valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of operations and predicts the... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 19 Feb 2014
  • Research & Ideas

Racist Umpires and Monetary Ministers

otherwise." In the cases of umpires and ministers, Parsons's work falls under the broader category of incentive research. "They are about what causes people to behave in predictable ways, and how that changes over time," he... View Details
Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Sports; Information; Publishing