Predictability - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2013
Book

Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters

By: Walter A. Friedman

The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting And Prediction; Economic History; Economics; History; Risk and Uncertainty; United States

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09 Dec 2015
Research Event

How Do You Predict Demand and Set Prices For Products Never Sold Before?

explained that the world of business analytics includes descriptive analytics (analyzing what has happened), predictive analytics (analyzing data to figure out what will probably happen), and prescriptive analytics (using data to decide... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail; Apparel & Accessories

2013
Working Paper

Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Testing for Firm Heterogeneity, Predicting Firm-Specific Coefficients, and Estimating Strategy Trade-Offs

By: Juan Alcacer, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk and Goncalo Pacheco-de-Almeida

Although Strategy research aims to understand how firm actions have differential effects on performance, most empirical research estimates the average effects of these actions across firms. This paper promotes Random Coefficients Models (RCMs) as an ideal empirical... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Mathematical Methods

2022
Working Paper

TalkToModel: Explaining Machine Learning Models with Interactive Natural Language Conversations

By: Dylan Slack, Satyapriya Krishna, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Sameer Singh

Practitioners increasingly use machine learning (ML) models, yet they have become more complex and harder to understand. To address this issue, researchers have proposed techniques to explain model predictions. However, practitioners struggle to use explainability... View Details

Keywords: Natural Language Conversations; Predictive Models; AI and Machine Learning

2020
Conference Presentation

A Performance-optimized Limb Detection Model Selectively Predicts Behavioral Responses Based on Movement Similarity

By: X. Zhao, J. De Freitas, L. Tarhan and G. A. Alvarez

June 2019
Teaching Note

Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning: Practicum in Predictive Analytics

By: Michael W. Toffel and Dan Levy

Teaching Note for HBS No. 618-019. View Details

June 2019
Supplement

Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning: Introduction to Predictive Analytics

By: Michael W. Toffel and Dan Levy

June 2019
Teaching Note

Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning: Introduction to Predictive Analytics

By: Michael W. Toffel and Dan Levy

Teaching Note for HBS No. 618-019. View Details

2018
Working Paper

Us and Them: Predicting Firm Stock Performance via Social Media Sentiment about Competitors

By: Frank Nagle

Article

Predicting Soccer Matches after Unconscious and Conscious Thought as a Function of Expertise

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking

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22 Jun 2021
News

Never in My Wildest Dreams:' What the Guru Who Predicted Remote Work 20 Years Ago Thinks about It Now

June 2019
Supplement

Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning: Practicum in Predictive Analytics

By: Michael W. Toffel and Dan Levy

2013
Working Paper

Appendix to 'Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity'

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

fall 1999
Article

(Dis)Respecting versus (Dis)liking: Status and Interdepenences Predict Ambivalent Stereotypes of Competence and Warmth

By: S.T. Fiske, J. Xu, A.J.C. Cuddy and P. Glick

Keywords: Status and Position; Attitudes; Competency and Skills

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1998
Book

Do Lunch or Be Lunch: The Power of Predictability in Creating Your Future

By: H. H. Stevenson and Jeffrey L. Cruikshank

Keywords: Personal Development and Career

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01 Jun 2023
News

3-Minute Briefing: Jeremy Grantham (MBA 1966)

Edited by Julia Hanna; photo by Webb Chappell When I was 16, I took my savings to the bank and bought some shares of a neighbor’s scaffolding company. Before coming to HBS, I sold them to my mother, who had also acquired some, and we felt pleased about saving the... View Details

Keywords: climate change; finance; sustainability; prediction; Finance

2018
Working Paper

Moral Prospection: Cognitive Bias and the Failure to Predict Moral Backlash Toward an Organization

By: J. Lees

2014
Working Paper

Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World

By: A. Kogan, F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner and A.W. Brooks

1990
Thesis

Parameter Prediction and Visualization to Aid the Decision-Making Process in an Automated Fabrication Environment

By: Stefan Thomke

2016
Working Paper

Paying for the Truth: The Efficacy of a Peer Prediction Mechanism in the Field

By: Natalia Rigol and Benjamin N. Roth

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