Publications

2022
White Paper

Census II of Free and Open Source Software - Application Libraries

By: Frank Nagle, James Dana, Jennifer Hoffman, Steven Randazzo and Yanuo Zhou

Produced in partnership with Harvard Laboratory for Innovation Science (LISH) and the Open Source Security Foundation (OpenSSF), Census II is the second investigation into the widespread use of Free and Open Source Software (FOSS). The Census II effort utilizes data... View Details

Keywords: Open Source Software; Applications and Software; Cybersecurity; Open Source Distribution

March 2022
Article

Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov

Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless... View Details

Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods

March 2022
Article

Sensitivity Analysis of Agent-based Models: A New Protocol

By: Emanuele Borgonovo, Marco Pangallo, Jan Rivkin, Leonardo Rizzo and Nicolaj Siggelkow

Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used in the management sciences. Though useful, ABMs are often critiqued: it is hard to discern why they produce the results they do and whether other assumptions would yield similar results. To help researchers address such... View Details

Keywords: Agent-based Modeling; Sensitivity Analysis; Design Of Experiments; Total Order Sensitivity Indices; Organizations; Behavior; Decision Making; Mathematical Methods

February 18, 2022
Article

Transparency as a Solution for COVID-19 Related Hospital Capacity Issues

By: Regina E. Herzlinger and Richard Boxer

In the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, many U.S. hospitals could not provide an adequate supply of beds to meet demand. Solving the problem of hospital bed capacity is of great importance in the “new normal,” which requires recognizing that SARS-CoV-2 is but... View Details

Keywords: COVID; COVID-19 Pandemic; Health Care; Health Care Demand; Health Care Delivery; Health Care Industry; Health Care Operations; Health Care Policy; Transparency; Hospital; Hospital Management; Hospitals; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Service Delivery; Operations; Performance Capacity; Policy; Health Industry

2022
Working Paper

The Disagreement Problem in Explainable Machine Learning: A Practitioner's Perspective

By: Satyapriya Krishna, Tessa Han, Alex Gu, Javin Pombra, Shahin Jabbari, Steven Wu and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As various post hoc explanation methods are increasingly being leveraged to explain complex models in high-stakes settings, it becomes critical to develop a deeper understanding of if and when the explanations output by these methods disagree with each other, and how... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods

2022
Working Paper

E-commerce During COVID: Stylized Facts from 47 Economies

By: Joel Alcedo, Alberto Cavallo, Bricklin Dwyer, Prachi Mishra and Antonio Spilimbergo

We study e-commerce across 47 economies and 26 industries during the COVID-19 pandemic using aggregated and anonymized transaction-level data from Mastercard, scaled to represent total consumer spending. The share of online transactions in total consumption increased... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Health Pandemics; Spending; Internet and the Web; Global Range; Analysis; E-commerce

February 2022 (Revised November 2022)
Case

Nuritas

By: Mitchell Weiss, Satish Tadikonda, Vincent Dessain and Emer Moloney

Nora Khaldi had built a technology “to unlock the power of nature” in the service of extending human lifespan and improving health, and now in April 2020 was debating telling her Board of Directors she wanted to put on ice some of her discoveries. Nuritas, the company... View Details

Keywords: Cash Burn; Cash Flow Analysis; Pharmaceutical Companies; Founder; Artificial Intelligence; AI; Entrepreneurship; Health Testing and Trials; Health Care and Treatment; Decision Making; Market Entry and Exit; AI and Machine Learning; Pharmaceutical Industry

Educators

February 2022
Article

Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century

By: Ufuk Akcigit, John Grigsby, Tom Nicholas and Stefanie Stantcheva

This paper studies the effect of corporate and personal taxes on innovation in the United States over the twentieth century. We build a panel of the universe of inventors who patent since 1920, and a historical state-level corporate tax database with corporate tax... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Income Taxes; Corporate Taxation; Firms; Inventors; State Taxation; Business Taxation; R＆D Tax Credits; Taxation; Innovation and Invention; History; United States

January 2022 (Revised March 2022)
Module Note

Analysis of Financial and Non-Financial Information for Forecasting Performance

By: Charles C.Y. Wang

This note describes the main themes and cases of a teaching module on the analysis of information from, and outside of, financial statements for forecasting firms’ future financial performance. The module’s pedagogical goal is to deepen students’ understanding of the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Reporting; Performance; Analysis; Valuation; Accounting; Finance

January 10, 2022
Article

The Link Between Income, Income Inequality, and Prosocial Behavior Around the World: A Multiverse Approach

By: Lucia Macchia and Ashley V. Whillans

The questions of whether high-income individuals are more prosocial than low-income individuals and whether income inequality moderates this effect have received extensive attention. We shed new light on this topic by analyzing a large-scale dataset with a... View Details

Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Income Inequality; Behavior; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Income

January 2022
Technical Note

Ethical Analysis: Well-Being and Rights

By: Nien-hê Hsieh and Christopher Diak

This note introduces students to two central concepts for ethical analysis: well-being and rights. It illustrates ways in which they figure in managerial decisions and challenges that arise, including how to frame trade-offs across individual well-being and... View Details

Keywords: Ethics; Analysis; Rights; Well-being; Management Practices and Processes; Decision Making

Educators

January 2022
Teaching Plan

Just Arrived: Integrating Refugees in Sweden

By: Brian Trelstad and Emilie Billaud

Teaching Plan for HBS Case No. 321-040. Just Arrived is an online platform that matches newly-arrived immigrants in Sweden with employment opportunities. As one of several for-profit and non-profit start-ups in Europe that is looking to address the refugee crisis, the... View Details

Keywords: Immigration; Refugees; Employment; Integration; Business Model; Social Entrepreneurship; Growth and Development Strategy; Employment Industry; Sweden; Italy; Germany

January 2022 (Revised March 2022)
Teaching Note

New Constructs: Disrupting Fundamental Analysis with Robo-Analysts

By: Charles C.Y. Wang and Albert Shin

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 118-068. View Details

Article

A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

By: Edward McFowland III, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna and Tianshu Sun

We define a prescriptive analytics framework that addresses the needs of a constrained decision-maker facing, ex ante, unknown costs and benefits of multiple policy levers. The framework is general in nature and can be deployed in any utility maximizing context, public... View Details

Keywords: Prescriptive Analytics; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Optimization; Observed Rank Utility Condition (OUR); Between-treatment Heterogeneity; Machine Learning; Decision Making; Analysis; Mathematical Methods

2021
Chapter

Business Continuity Insurance in the Next Disaster

By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Adi Sunderam and Eric Zwick

This article draws lessons from the business support policies pursued in the COVID-19 pandemic to guide policy design for the next disaster. We contrast the performance of the Paycheck Protection Program to the Main Street Lending Program to illustrate how design... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Policy; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Financing and Loans; United States

December 2021
Article

Employee Responses to Compensation Changes: Evidence from a Sales Firm

By: Jason Sandvik, Richard Saouma, Nathan Seegert and Christopher Stanton

What are the long-term consequences of compensation changes? Using data from an inbound sales call center, we study employee responses to a compensation change that ultimately reduced take-home pay by 7% for the average affected worker. The change caused a significant... View Details

Keywords: Employees; Wages; Compensation and Benefits; Change; Performance; Resignation and Termination; Retention; Analysis

Winter 2021
Article

Mobile Internet Usage and Usage-based Pricing

By: Jeffrey Prince and Shane Greenstein

Using data on mobile Internet usage of thousands of individuals, we provide some of the first analyses linking mobile usage to key demographics such as income. We find a reverse-U relationship between mobile Internet usage and income—notably different than the... View Details

Keywords: Mobile Internet Usage; Pricing Strategy; Internet and the Web; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Demographics; Income; Price; Strategy

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Article

Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability

By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by... View Details

Keywords: Black Box Explanations; Bayesian Modeling; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology

December 2021
Article

The Evolutionary Nature of Breakthrough Innovation: An Empirical Investigation of Firm Search Strategies

By: Dominika Kinga Randle and Gary P. Pisano

Breakthrough innovation has been an important topic of study for generations of scholars. Previous research in this domain has focused on exploring the way breakthroughs emerge from cumulative combination and recombination of prior technologies and knowledge components... View Details

Keywords: Breakthrough Innovation; Exploration And Exploitation; Search Strategy; Innovation and Invention; Technological Innovation; Strategy