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- Faculty Publications (149)
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- All HBS Web (393)
- Faculty Publications (149)
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- August 2003
- Article
When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms
By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details
Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms." Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 3 (August 2003): 969–1006.
- March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
- Case
Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)
By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco
In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details
Keywords: Compensation; Collaboration; Executive Search Firms; Consulting Firms; Compensation and Benefits; Restructuring; Human Resources; Human Capital; Management Practices and Processes; Organizational Culture; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Social and Collaborative Networks; Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Talent and Talent Management; Consulting Industry; Employment Industry; Asia; Europe; Latin America; Middle East; North and Central America; South America; Oceania
Bernstein, Ethan, and Cara Mazzucco. "Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)." Harvard Business School Case 422-045, March 2022. (Revised May 2022.)
- January 2001
- Case
Valuing Project Achieve
By: Mihir A. Desai and Kathleen Luchs
Project Achieve is a start-up providing information management solutions for schools. Its founders see a need for software both to manage the volumes of information necessary to administer a school and to connect parents, teachers, and students in a more effective way.... View Details
Keywords: Business Startups; Valuation; Venture Capital; Cost of Capital; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction
Desai, Mihir A., and Kathleen Luchs. "Valuing Project Achieve." Harvard Business School Case 201-080, January 2001.
- October 2020 (Revised March 2021)
- Supplement
Migros Turkey: Scaling Online Operations During COVID-19 (C)
By: Antonio Moreno and Gamze Yucaoglu
The case opens in August 2020 as Ozgur Tort and Mustafa Bartin, CEO and chief large-format and online retail officer of Migros Ticaret A.S. (Migros), Turkey’s oldest and one of its largest supermarket chains, are navigating Migros through COVID-19 and the unprecedented... View Details
Keywords: Business Model; Strategy; Digital Platforms; Information Technology; Technology Adoption; Value Creation; Globalization; Competition; Expansion; Logistics; Profit; Resource Allocation; Diversification; Corporate Strategy; Crisis Management; Health Pandemics; Strategic Planning; Food and Beverage Industry; Turkey
Moreno, Antonio, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Migros Turkey: Scaling Online Operations During COVID-19 (C)." Harvard Business School Supplement 621-062, October 2020. (Revised March 2021.)
- December 2010
- Article
Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret
By: Julio J. Rotemberg
A model is considered where firms internalize the regret costs that consumers experience when they see an unexpected price change. Regret costs are assumed to be increasing in the size of price changes and this can explain why the size of price increases is less... View Details
Keywords: Cost; Price; Change; Inflation and Deflation; Cost Management; Customers; Practice; Announcements; Forecasting and Prediction
Rotemberg, Julio J. "Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret." Scandinavian Journal of Economics 112, no. 4 (December 2010).
- 2011
- Article
A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction
By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth
Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness
Ert, Eyal, Ido Erev, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 2, no. 3 (September 2011): 257–276.
- Article
A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction
By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth
A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition
Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 1, no. 2 (June 2010): 117–136.
- 21 Oct 2014
- First Look
First Look: October 21
available. Publisher's link: http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/bookentry_main.lasso?currency=US&id=14987 October 2014 Leading Sustainable Change: An Organizational Perspective From Periphery to Core: A Process Model for Embracing... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." NBER Working Paper Series, 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- January–February 2023
- Article
Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu and Najat Khan
The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred extensive vaccine research worldwide. One crucial part of vaccine development is the phase III clinical trial that assesses the vaccine for safety and efficacy in the prevention of COVID-19. In this work, we enumerate the first... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Health Testing and Trials; Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Research; Pharmaceutical Industry
Bertsimas, Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu, and Najat Khan. "Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen." INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics 53, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 70–84.
- 2010
- Working Paper
The Unbundling of Advertising Agency Services: An Economic Analysis
By: Mohammad Arzaghi, Ernst R. Berndt, James C. Davis and Alvin J. Silk
We address a longstanding puzzle surrounding the unbundling of services occurring over several decades in the U.S. advertising agency industry: What accounts for the shift from bundling to unbundling of services and the slow pace of change? Using Evans and Salinger's... View Details
Keywords: Advertising; Change; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Surveys; Marketing Strategy; Media; Service Operations; Agency Theory; Mathematical Methods; Advertising Industry; United States
Arzaghi, Mohammad, Ernst R. Berndt, James C. Davis, and Alvin J. Silk. "The Unbundling of Advertising Agency Services: An Economic Analysis." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-039, September 2010.
- 26 Apr 2023
- In Practice
Is AI Coming for Your Job?
users may have additional knowledge or context that the AI doesn’t (e.g. that the AI hasn’t been trained on, propriety knowledge, a better understanding of the specific task at hand, etc.). Another risk with these generative AI models is... View Details
- 2009
- Case
What People Want (and How to Predict It)
By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris
Historically, neither the creators nor the distributors of cultural products such as books or movies have used analytics -- data, statistics, predictive modeling -- to determine the likely success of their offerings. Instead, companies relied on the brilliance of... View Details
Keywords: Product Development; Creativity; Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets; Business Model; Publishing Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
Davenport, Thomas H., and Jeanne G. Harris. "What People Want (and How to Predict It)." 2009.
- 2011
- Chapter
Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies
By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley
This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Analytics and Data Science; Agreements and Arrangements; United States
Antras, Pol, and C. Fritz Foley. "Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies." In Costs and Benefits of Regional Economic Integration in Asia, edited by Robert J. Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. Oxford University Press, 2011.
- 21 Aug 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, August 21, 2018
We implement a variety of machine learning methods to forecast daily sales. We find that using social media information results in statistically significant improvements in the out-of-sample accuracy of the forecasts, with relative... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
- 29 Aug 2006
- First Look
First Look: August 29, 2006
Anton and Dennis A. Yao Periodical:Journal of Law, Economics and Organization (forthcoming) Abstract We examine the impact of patent infringement damages in an equilibrium oligopoly model of process innovation where the choice to infringe... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 2023
- Working Paper
Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment
By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental
R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more
knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details
Frankel, Alexander P., Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-074, May 2023. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31290, May 2023.)
- November 1999 (Revised July 2003)
- Case
Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc.
By: Paul M. Healy and Jacob Cohen
Pre-Paid Legal Services' business model reveals two key issues--managing the sales force and sales growth and managing claims. Students analyze the economics of the business and consider how to measure firm performance, how to evaluate and reward the sales force, and... View Details
Keywords: Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Salesforce Management; Marketing Strategy; Accrual Accounting; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance; Business Growth and Maturation; Insurance Industry
Healy, Paul M., and Jacob Cohen. "Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 100-037, November 1999. (Revised July 2003.)
- 26 Apr 2016
- First Look
April 26
Case 216-023 Models of Endowment Management: King's College, Cambridge One of the University of Cambridge's Colleges evaluates different asset management options for its endowment fund. Purchase this case:... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- Article
Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data
By: Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend
This article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals’ survey and administrative earnings. In line with previous literature, the reported differences are characterized by both persistent and transitory factors.... View Details
Keywords: Earnings Dynamics; Measurement Error; Panel Data; Validation Study; Business Earnings; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction
Hyslop, Dean, and Wilbur Townsend. "Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 38, no. 2 (2020).