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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,257)
- News (493)
- Research (2,464)
- Events (38)
- Multimedia (17)
- Faculty Publications (1,571)
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- Research Summary
Does the Adoption of Rolling Forecasts Improve Planning?
This field study investigates the consequences of adopting rolling forecasts on organizational planning. Using quarterly product-line forecasted and realized sales data from several business units of a multinational biotechnology supplier, I find that subsequent to the... View Details
- 2013
- Other Teaching and Training Material
Operations Management Reading: Forecasting
By: Steven C. Wheelwright and Ann B. Winslow
Wheelwright, Steven C., and Ann B. Winslow. "Operations Management Reading: Forecasting." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Harvard Business Publishing 8042HBH, 2013.
- 01 Mar 2017
- News
Students Forecast Climate Change’s Impact
MORE Watch three students discuss their approach to the climate change challenge MORE Watch three students discuss their approach to the climate change challenge Professors Mike Toffel and Marco Iansiti presented the more than 900 RC... View Details
Keywords: Dan Morrell
- Article
Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments
By: Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers and J. Peter Scoblic
Political debates often suffer from vague-verbiage predictions that make it difficult to assess accuracy and improve policy. A tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed ways in which forecasters can better use probability estimates to make... View Details
Keywords: Tournaments; Politics; Depolarization; Knowledge Creation; Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics
Tetlock, Philip E., Barbara A. Mellers, and J. Peter Scoblic. "Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments." Science 355, no. 6324 (February 3, 2017): 481–483.
- November 2003
- Article
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 70, no. 2 (November 2003): 261–291.
- November 2011
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2011)
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2011 version includes: sliced peanut butter, artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks, interactive tombstones, and stride-changing running shoes. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption.... View Details
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2011)." Harvard Business School Case 512-047, November 2011.
- March 2018
- Article
Polluted Morality: Air Pollution Predicts Criminal Activity and Unethical Behavior
By: Jackson G. Lu, Julia J. Lee, F. Gino and Adam D. Galinsky
Air pollution is a serious problem that influences billions of people globally. Although the health and environmental costs of air pollution are well known, the present research investigates its ethical costs. We propose that air pollution can increase criminal and... View Details
Lu, Jackson G., Julia J. Lee, F. Gino, and Adam D. Galinsky. "Polluted Morality: Air Pollution Predicts Criminal Activity and Unethical Behavior." Psychological Science 29, no. 3 (March 2018): 340–355.
- June 2020
- Supplement
Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth
By: E. Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
- 16 Mar 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Amount and Diversity of Digital Emotional Expression Predicts Happiness
- March 2022 (Revised July 2022)
- Technical Note
Prediction & Machine Learning
This note provides an introduction to machine learning for an introductory data science course. The note begins with a description of supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. Then, the note provides a brief explanation of the difference between traditional... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Data Science; Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation
Bojinov, Iavor I., Michael Parzen, and Paul Hamilton. "Prediction & Machine Learning." Harvard Business School Technical Note 622-101, March 2022. (Revised July 2022.)
- April 2008
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)." Harvard Business School Case 508-103, April 2008.
- 2007
- Working Paper
Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting
By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
Kesavan, Saravanan, Vishal Gaur, and Ananth Raman. "Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-056, March 2007.
- 1996
- Chapter
The Power of Predictability
By: H. H. Stevenson and Mihnea Moldoveanu
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
- January 2024 (Revised February 2024)
- Supplement
Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth
By: Mark Egan
- 06 May 2015
- What Do You Think?
Are You Ready for Personalized Predictive Analytics?
amounts of inventory that ensure an in-stock position when an order is received. An argument can be made that any forecast and inventory is based on predictive analytics. But... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
- January 1982 (Revised May 1983)
- Case
Unitrode Corp. (B): Short Term Forecasting and Major Procurements
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (B): Short Term Forecasting and Major Procurements." Harvard Business School Case 182-179, January 1982. (Revised May 1983.)
- July–August 1995
- Article
The Power of Predictability
By: H. H. Stevenson and M. C. Moldoveanu
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Stevenson, H. H., and M. C. Moldoveanu. "The Power of Predictability." Harvard Business Review 73, no. 4 (July–August 1995).
- 26 Nov 2019
- News
Predicting Financial Market Bubbles and Crises in Real-time
turnover, age of the firm, and the percentage of firms that issued stock during a run-up, among other factors. Greenwood found that, while Fama was correct in asserting that sharp price increases do not View Details
- August 28, 2019
- Article
How to Make Your Sales Forecasts More Accurate
By: Lou Shipley
Companies need consistently accurate sales forecasts — but unfortunately they are rare. That’s because many companies fail to align their sales and marketing departments, and that alignment is a prerequisite for forecast accuracy. Companies can achieve better alignment... View Details
Shipley, Lou. "How to Make Your Sales Forecasts More Accurate." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (August 28, 2019).