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- All HBS Web (216)
- Faculty Publications (95)
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- 23 Jan 2018
- First Look
First Look at New Research and Ideas, January 23, 2018
features a regime-switching short-rate model. We evaluate the out-of-sample performance of our model in terms of forecasting ability and coverage properties and find that it improves on the standard Diebold...
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Sean Silverthorne
- 17 Sep 2013
- First Look
First Look: September 17
impact people's feelings about their decisions. We compare post-choice satisfaction from choices made by mind wandering to reason based choices and randomly assigned outcomes. Participants chose a poster by mind wandering or deliberating-or were randomly assigned a...
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Sean Silverthorne
- 19 Feb 2007
- Research & Ideas
Inexperienced Investors and Market Bubbles
managers over-invested in technology stocks. Why are the less-experienced managers drawn to technology? A: Our hypothesis is that younger managers, and inexperienced investors more generally, are more likely to extrapolate past price movements when forming their View Details
- 05 Feb 2008
- First Look
First Look: February 5, 2008
No abstract is available at this time. Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-057.pdf Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning Authors:Rogelio...
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Martha Lagace
- 16 Jun 2015
- First Look
First Look: June 16, 2015
importance of return on equity in forecasting future stock returns depends on the quality of the accounting information. This extension also reconciles our model with alternative characteristic-based forecasters. These findings suggest...
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Sean Silverthorne
- 25 Jun 2013
- First Look
First Look: June 25
http://www.people.hbs.edu/amusacchio/Leviathan/toc.htm 2006 pub Inflated Applicants: Attribution Errors in Performance Evaluation by Professionals By: Swift, S. A., D. Moore, Z. Sharek, and F. Gino Abstract—When explaining others'...
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Anna Secino
- 11 Jan 2011
- First Look
First Look: Jan. 11
students and investors how to evaluate mutual funds and other collective investment vehicles. It discusses how different types of funds are managed, marketed, and regulated. It also reviews how funds invest and gather assets in countries...
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Sean Silverthorne
- 09 May 2011
- Research & Ideas
Moving From Bean Counter to Game Changer
and consumer lending. The researchers chose to study risk-management experts because their role has risen in importance with demands for improved corporate governance and the need for better forecasting and modeling. After the financial...
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- 05 Sep 2007
- First Look
First Look: September 5, 2007
own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and evaluation is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually do, and when View Details
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Martha Lagace
- 06 Jun 2017
- First Look
First Look at New Research and Ideas: June 6, 2017
https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=52718 Relative Performance Benchmarks: Do Boards Follow the Informativeness Principle? By: Ma, Paul, Jee Eun Shin, and Charles C.Y. Wang Abstract—Relative TSR (rTSR) is increasingly used by market participants to judge and...
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Sean Silverthorne
- 08 Feb 2016
- Research & Ideas
The Civic Benefits of Google Street View and Yelp
Yelp restaurant reviews to target hygiene inspections? “There is so much data now, it’s exhilarating—and frightening” “There is all sorts of data that is coming in now,” says Luca, “and if you use it carefully you could revamp the way that every policy is View Details
- 19 Jan 2011
- First Look
First Look: Jan. 18
analysts' forecasts of firm performance actually reflect any of these factors and which are considered most important. We use survey data from 967 analysts ranking 837 companies to judge how their forecasts...
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Sean Silverthorne
- 26 Jun 2007
- First Look
First Look: June 26, 2007
from investors. CircleLending is a pioneer in the informal lending market, a largely unstudied and little understood consumer finance segment. Asheesh Advani, the founder and CEO of CircleLending, must evaluate the relative attractiveness...
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Martha Lagace
- 11 Dec 2007
- First Look
First Look: December 11, 2007
Working PapersThe Seer of Wellesley Hills: Roger Babson and the Babson Statistical Organization Author:Walter A. Friedman Abstract Roger Babson was a pioneer of the business-forecasting industry in the United States in the early twentieth century. He built the...
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Martha Lagace
- 22 May 2007
- First Look
First Look: May 22, 2007
evaluate their theory by looking at the design evolution of two software product platforms through the modeling lens of design structure matrices (DSMs) and design rule theory. Our analysis shows that DSM models and options theory can...
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Martha Lagace
- 27 Feb 2007
- First Look
First Look: February 27, 2007
Man, and operates ships that travel around the world. In analyzing the choices he faces, students must consider how the initial capitalization of Navigator contributed to its financial distress, evaluate several restructuring plans from a...
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Martha Lagace
- 20 Feb 2007
- First Look
First Look: February 20, 2007
(forthcoming) Abstract Abarbanell and Lehavy (2006) examine the effect of distributional properties of earnings and forecast data used by researchers who investigate 'Street' earnings. They perform a large number of analyses, and...
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Martha Lagace
- 07 Jul 2014
- Research & Ideas
Banning Big-box Stores Can Hurt Local Retailers
that something was happening." To evaluate the effects of planning regulation on independent retailers, Sadun studied the retail landscape in the United Kingdom between 1998 and 2003. Not surprisingly, she discovered that the...
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- 01 Nov 2016
- First Look
First Look - November 1, 2016
Behavioral Decision Making The Impact of 'Display-Set' Options on Decision-Making By: Karmarkar, Uma R. Abstract—The way a choice set is constructed can have a significant influence on how individuals perceive and evaluate their options...
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Sean Silverthorne
- 14 Aug 2007
- First Look
First Look: August 14, 2007
and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). The paper provides a new framework for adapting the CCA model to the sovereign balance sheet in a way that can help forecast credit spreads and View Details
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Martha Lagace