Publications

August 2023
Article

Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?

By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée

This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these... View Details

Keywords: Financial Innovation; Household Finance; Structured Products; Stock Market Participation; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Household; Personal Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Market Participation

23 Jan 2023
Research & Ideas

After High-Profile Failures, Can Investors Still Trust Credit Ratings?

During the financial crisis of 2008, major credit rating agencies faced sharp criticism for failing to recognize and warn of the risks of emerging instruments like mortgage-backed securities. Since that time, the results of a new study... View Details

Keywords: by Ben Rand

29 May 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, May 29, 2018

February 2018 Journal of Accounting & Economics Bank CEO Materialism: Risk Controls, Culture and Tail Risk By: Bushman, Robert, Robert Davidson, Aiyesha Dey, and Abbie... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

November 1995 (Revised April 1996)
Case

ENTel and the Privatization of Argentine Telecommunications

By: Willis M. Emmons III

Growing fiscal deficits, persistent economic recession, and underinvestment in the nation's telecommunications infrastructure lead the Argentine government to privatize its state-owned monopoly provider of telecommunications services, ENTel, in late 1990. The... View Details

Keywords: Opportunities; Risk and Uncertainty; Communication Technology; Privatization; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Competition; Development Economics; Policy; Government and Politics; Performance Effectiveness; Telecommunications Industry; Argentina

Forthcoming
Article

Who Values Democracy?

By: Max Miller

This paper examines the conventional view that redistribution is central to the democratization process using data from stock markets. Consistent with this view, democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistribution risk.... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Financial Markets; Valuation

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Fall 2022
Article

China's Political Economy and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Security Dilemma Dynamics

By: Margaret Pearson, Meg Rithmire and Kellee Tsai

Contrary to expectations that economic interdependence might lessen security conflict between China and the U.S. and its allies, much of the contestation between China and several OECD countries has focused on firms and economic links. This paper explains the... View Details

Keywords: Globalized Markets and Industries; Government and Politics; Information Technology; China

January – March 2012
Article

Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Luis M. Viceira

This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks

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December 2011 (Revised May 2012)
Case

Heavy Metal (A): Baosteel Enters Brazil

What is Baosteel, a top Chinese steelmaker, doing in Brazil? The company is responding to the Chinese government's "go global" policy and to the possible rise in iron ore input costs. But steel mills are complex, capital-intensive projects, and Brazil is an emerging... View Details

2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

SSRN

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11 Sep 2007
Working Paper Summaries

Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Keywords: by Luis M. Viceira

21 Nov 2022
Research & Ideas

Buy Now, Pay Later: How Retail's Hot Feature Hurts Low-Income Shoppers

Online shopping features that let consumers pay for goods in interest-free installments exploded during the pandemic, but new research questions the riskiness of such services: Are people getting in over their heads? Buy now, pay later (BNPL) financing has snowballed... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Retail; Financial Services; Technology

February 2016
Teaching Note

Indonesia: Growth and Stability in a Global Economy

By: Lakshmi Iyer

This country case on Indonesia is designed to enable a discussion of the potential risks in financial globalization. The country suffered a severe economic crisis in 1997-98 when global capital withdrew from many Asian countries. A significant currency depreciation of... View Details

Keywords: Indonesia; Growth; Stability; Currency Depreciation; Decentralization; Currency; Balance and Stability; Globalization; Economic Growth; Indonesia

04 Dec 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, December 4, 2018

firm disclosures. Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55303 November 2018 Australian Economic History Review Business, Governments and Political Risk in South Asia and Latin... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

Research Summary

US-China Relations

By: Meg Rithmire

Economic interdependence between the US and China was imagined years ago to be a source of security and prosperity for both countries, but is now the site of concerns about risk and national security on both sides. My work has examined how that shift has come about,... View Details

August 2017
Case

Turkish Economy Bank and Fortis Bank: Managing a Complex Merger

By: Stuart C. Gilson, Esel Çekin and Sarah L. Abbott

Following the announcement of the merger of the Turkish Economic Bank (TEB) and Fortis Bank AS, Varol Civil, TEB's CEO, is faced with the task of executing the merger of these two entities. First, all parties must agree to the economic terms of this merger; a process... View Details

Keywords: M＆A; Turkey; Banking; Restructuring; Financial Institutions; Change Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Banking Industry; Turkey

February 2021
Article

Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession

By: S. Bernstein, T. McQuade and R. Townsend

We investigate how the deterioration of household balance sheets affects worker productivity, and, in turn, economic downturns. Specifically, we compare the output of innovative workers who experienced differential declines in housing wealth during the financial crisis... View Details

Keywords: Great Recession; Household; Financial Condition; System Shocks; Employees; Performance Productivity

06 Oct 2015
First Look

October 6, 2015

by standard economic models, this paper shows that an additional mechanism is relevant: the use of risk as an excuse not to give. In a laboratory study, participants evaluate risky payoffs for themselves and... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

January 1990 (Revised March 1994)
Case

Royal Ahold NV

By: Richard F. Meyer

Contains a general description of a large international retailer. Focus is on the major financial risks facing the company: exchange rate risk and commodity price risk. This case is an introduction to financial risk management. It poses some of the major problem areas. View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Currency Exchange Rate; Futures and Commodity Futures; Trade; Distribution; Financial Services Industry