Publications

Find at Harvard

January – March 2012
Article

Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Luis M. Viceira

This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks

Find at Harvard

Read Now

29 May 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, May 29, 2018

February 2018 Journal of Accounting & Economics Bank CEO Materialism: Risk Controls, Culture and Tail Risk By: Bushman, Robert, Robert Davidson, Aiyesha Dey, and Abbie... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

December 2011 (Revised May 2012)
Case

Heavy Metal (A): Baosteel Enters Brazil

What is Baosteel, a top Chinese steelmaker, doing in Brazil? The company is responding to the Chinese government's "go global" policy and to the possible rise in iron ore input costs. But steel mills are complex, capital-intensive projects, and Brazil is an emerging... View Details

11 Sep 2007
Working Paper Summaries

Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Keywords: by Luis M. Viceira

21 Nov 2022
Research & Ideas

Buy Now, Pay Later: How Retail's Hot Feature Hurts Low-Income Shoppers

Online shopping features that let consumers pay for goods in interest-free installments exploded during the pandemic, but new research questions the riskiness of such services: Are people getting in over their heads? Buy now, pay later (BNPL) financing has snowballed... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Retail; Financial Services; Technology

February 2016
Teaching Note

Indonesia: Growth and Stability in a Global Economy

By: Lakshmi Iyer

This country case on Indonesia is designed to enable a discussion of the potential risks in financial globalization. The country suffered a severe economic crisis in 1997-98 when global capital withdrew from many Asian countries. A significant currency depreciation of... View Details

Keywords: Indonesia; Growth; Stability; Currency Depreciation; Decentralization; Currency; Balance and Stability; Globalization; Economic Growth; Indonesia

04 Dec 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, December 4, 2018

firm disclosures. Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55303 November 2018 Australian Economic History Review Business, Governments and Political Risk in South Asia and Latin... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

Research Summary

US-China Relations

By: Meg Rithmire

Economic interdependence between the US and China was imagined years ago to be a source of security and prosperity for both countries, but is now the site of concerns about risk and national security on both sides. My work has examined how that shift has come about,... View Details

August 2017
Case

Turkish Economy Bank and Fortis Bank: Managing a Complex Merger

By: Stuart C. Gilson, Esel Çekin and Sarah L. Abbott

Following the announcement of the merger of the Turkish Economic Bank (TEB) and Fortis Bank AS, Varol Civil, TEB's CEO, is faced with the task of executing the merger of these two entities. First, all parties must agree to the economic terms of this merger; a process... View Details

Keywords: M＆A; Turkey; Banking; Restructuring; Financial Institutions; Change Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Banking Industry; Turkey

2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

SSRN

Read Now

January 2010 (Revised February 2010)
Case

IFP, Indonesia

By: Roy D. Shapiro

IFP, Ltd. is a Europe-based multinational mining and minerals company contemplating an investment to produce forest products in Indonesia. The primary case decisions are 1) how to assess political and operating risk, 2) how to integrate economic and political risk... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Investment; Geographic Location; Risk Management; Supply Chain Management; Business and Government Relations; Forest Products Industry; Indonesia

28 May 2024
In Practice

Job Search Advice for a Tough Market: Think Broadly and Stay Flexible

deploy with experience that suits client needs. In this increasingly complex world, there is no shortage of client demands for digital transformation, emerging artificial intelligence (AI) applications, renewable energy, risk mitigation,... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

06 Oct 2015
First Look

October 6, 2015

by standard economic models, this paper shows that an additional mechanism is relevant: the use of risk as an excuse not to give. In a laboratory study, participants evaluate risky payoffs for themselves and... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

29 Nov 2022
Research & Ideas

How Much More Would Holiday Shoppers Pay to Wear Something Rare?

companies, however, struggle to find the optimal balance. While Farronato’s research shows that producing fewer items allows retailers to charge more for them, if companies produce too few, they also risk losing out on additional sales.... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Retail

February 2021
Article

Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession

By: S. Bernstein, T. McQuade and R. Townsend

We investigate how the deterioration of household balance sheets affects worker productivity, and, in turn, economic downturns. Specifically, we compare the output of innovative workers who experienced differential declines in housing wealth during the financial crisis... View Details

Keywords: Great Recession; Household; Financial Condition; System Shocks; Employees; Performance Productivity

Find at Harvard

18 Dec 2007
First Look

First Look: December 18, 2007

David Townsend analyze the results of comprehensive interviews they performed with senior risk officers. Prudence in Bargaining: The Effect of Uncertainty on Bargaining Outcomes Author:Lucy White Periodical:Games and View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

November 2023
Case

Axie Infinity: Video Game Meets Blockchain

By: Marco Di Maggio and Wenyao Sha

The narrative unfolds from the perspective of Sky Mavis's leadership team, facing a high-stakes, rapidly evolving digital frontier. They navigate the exhilarating yet tumultuous journey of Axie Infinity, balancing innovation with sustainability. It explores the game's... View Details

Keywords: Blockchain; Business Model; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Currency; Innovation and Management; Business Strategy; Video Game Industry

July 2005 (Revised September 2020)
Case

The U.S. Current Account Deficit

By: Laura Alfaro, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson and Jonathan Schlefer

Investors and policymakers throughout the world were confronted with the risk of painful economic consequences arising from the large U.S. current account deficit. In 2007, the U.S. current account deficit was $731 billion, equivalent to 5.3% of GDP. The implications... View Details

Keywords: World Economy; Macroeconomics; Borrowing and Debt; Currency; Foreign Direct Investment; Business and Government Relations; United States