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- Research Summary
Managerial Decision Analysis
By: David E. Bell
David E. Bell and Arthur Schleifer, Jr. are concluding a multiyear project aimed at producing more field-oriented case material for the Managerial Economics course, specifically, materials on decision, data, and risk analysis. A series of case- and textbooks (with... View Details
- October 1994 (Revised November 1995)
- Case
N.V. Philips Electronics - Currency Hedging Policies
By: Richard F. Meyer
Describes Philips Electronics' policies and problems relating to foreign exchange risk and hedging. Explains centralization versus decentralization of currency hedging, economic role versus transaction role, the difficulties of capturing the necessary information... View Details
Keywords: Business Divisions; Currency Exchange Rate; International Finance; Globalization; Policy; Information Management; Management; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty
Meyer, Richard F. "N.V. Philips Electronics - Currency Hedging Policies." Harvard Business School Case 295-055, October 1994. (Revised November 1995.)
- August 2023
- Article
Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?
By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée
This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these... View Details
Keywords: Financial Innovation; Household Finance; Structured Products; Stock Market Participation; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Household; Personal Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Market Participation
Calvet, Laurent, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini, and Boris Vallée. "Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?" Journal of Finance 78, no. 4 (August 2023): 1917–1966.
- 23 Jan 2023
- Research & Ideas
After High-Profile Failures, Can Investors Still Trust Credit Ratings?
During the financial crisis of 2008, major credit rating agencies faced sharp criticism for failing to recognize and warn of the risks of emerging instruments like mortgage-backed securities. Since that time, the results of a new study... View Details
Keywords: by Ben Rand
- 29 May 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, May 29, 2018
February 2018 Journal of Accounting & Economics Bank CEO Materialism: Risk Controls, Culture and Tail Risk By: Bushman, Robert, Robert Davidson, Aiyesha Dey, and Abbie... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
- November 1995 (Revised April 1996)
- Case
ENTel and the Privatization of Argentine Telecommunications
Growing fiscal deficits, persistent economic recession, and underinvestment in the nation's telecommunications infrastructure lead the Argentine government to privatize its state-owned monopoly provider of telecommunications services, ENTel, in late 1990. The... View Details
Keywords: Opportunities; Risk and Uncertainty; Communication Technology; Privatization; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Competition; Development Economics; Policy; Government and Politics; Performance Effectiveness; Telecommunications Industry; Argentina
Emmons, Willis M., III. "ENTel and the Privatization of Argentine Telecommunications." Harvard Business School Case 796-065, November 1995. (Revised April 1996.)
- Forthcoming
- Article
Who Values Democracy?
By: Max Miller
This paper examines the conventional view that redistribution is central to the democratization process using data from stock markets. Consistent with this view, democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistribution risk.... View Details
Keywords: Government and Politics; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Financial Markets; Valuation
Miller, Max. "Who Values Democracy?" Journal of Political Economy (forthcoming).
- Fall 2022
- Article
China's Political Economy and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Security Dilemma Dynamics
By: Margaret Pearson, Meg Rithmire and Kellee Tsai
Contrary to expectations that economic interdependence might lessen security conflict between China and the U.S. and its allies, much of the contestation between China and several OECD countries has focused on firms and economic links. This paper explains the... View Details
Pearson, Margaret, Meg Rithmire, and Kellee Tsai. "China's Political Economy and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Security Dilemma Dynamics." International Security 47, no. 2 (Fall 2022): 135–176.
- January – March 2012
- Article
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Luis M. Viceira
This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details
Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks
Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.
- December 2011 (Revised May 2012)
- Case
Heavy Metal (A): Baosteel Enters Brazil
What is Baosteel, a top Chinese steelmaker, doing in Brazil? The company is responding to the Chinese government's "go global" policy and to the possible rise in iron ore input costs. But steel mills are complex, capital-intensive projects, and Brazil is an emerging... View Details
Keywords: Global Business; China; Developing Countries; Latin America; Industrial Development; Strategy And Execution; Analysis; Industrial Analysis; Heavy Industry; Country Analysis; Brazil; Economic Analysis; Natural Resources; Infrastructure; Planning; Capacity Planning; Contingency Planning; Demand Planning; Competition; Core Competencies; Corporate Strategy; Strategic Positioning; Five Forces; Bargaining Power Of Suppliers; Globalization; Government and Politics; Policy; Emerging Markets; Foreign Direct Investment; Mining; Steel Industry; Mining Industry; China; Brazil
Abrami, Regina M., and Iacob Koch-Weser. "Heavy Metal (A): Baosteel Enters Brazil." Harvard Business School Case 912-411, December 2011. (Revised May 2012.)
- 2015
- Working Paper
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details
Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
- 11 Sep 2007
- Working Paper Summaries
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Keywords: by Luis M. Viceira
- 21 Nov 2022
- Research & Ideas
Buy Now, Pay Later: How Retail's Hot Feature Hurts Low-Income Shoppers
Online shopping features that let consumers pay for goods in interest-free installments exploded during the pandemic, but new research questions the riskiness of such services: Are people getting in over their heads? Buy now, pay later (BNPL) financing has snowballed... View Details
- February 2016
- Teaching Note
Indonesia: Growth and Stability in a Global Economy
By: Lakshmi Iyer
This country case on Indonesia is designed to enable a discussion of the potential risks in financial globalization. The country suffered a severe economic crisis in 1997-98 when global capital withdrew from many Asian countries. A significant currency depreciation of... View Details
- 04 Dec 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, December 4, 2018
firm disclosures. Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55303 November 2018 Australian Economic History Review Business, Governments and Political Risk in South Asia and Latin... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
- Research Summary
US-China Relations
By: Meg Rithmire
Economic interdependence between the US and China was imagined years ago to be a source of security and prosperity for both countries, but is now the site of concerns about risk and national security on both sides. My work has examined how that shift has come about,... View Details
- August 2017
- Case
Turkish Economy Bank and Fortis Bank: Managing a Complex Merger
By: Stuart C. Gilson, Esel Çekin and Sarah L. Abbott
Following the announcement of the merger of the Turkish Economic Bank (TEB) and Fortis Bank AS, Varol Civil, TEB's CEO, is faced with the task of executing the merger of these two entities. First, all parties must agree to the economic terms of this merger; a process... View Details
Keywords: M&A; Turkey; Banking; Restructuring; Financial Institutions; Change Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Banking Industry; Turkey
Gilson, Stuart C., Esel Çekin, and Sarah L. Abbott. "Turkish Economy Bank and Fortis Bank: Managing a Complex Merger." Harvard Business School Case 218-012, August 2017.
- February 2021
- Article
Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession
By: S. Bernstein, T. McQuade and R. Townsend
We investigate how the deterioration of household balance sheets affects worker productivity, and, in turn, economic downturns. Specifically, we compare the output of innovative workers who experienced differential declines in housing wealth during the financial crisis... View Details
Keywords: Great Recession; Household; Financial Condition; System Shocks; Employees; Performance Productivity
Bernstein, S., T. McQuade, and R. Townsend. "Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession." Journal of Finance 76, no. 1 (February 2021): 57–111.
- 06 Oct 2015
- First Look
October 6, 2015
by standard economic models, this paper shows that an additional mechanism is relevant: the use of risk as an excuse not to give. In a laboratory study, participants evaluate risky payoffs for themselves and... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- January 1990 (Revised March 1994)
- Case
Royal Ahold NV
By: Richard F. Meyer
Contains a general description of a large international retailer. Focus is on the major financial risks facing the company: exchange rate risk and commodity price risk. This case is an introduction to financial risk management. It poses some of the major problem areas. View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Currency Exchange Rate; Futures and Commodity Futures; Trade; Distribution; Financial Services Industry
Meyer, Richard F. "Royal Ahold NV." Harvard Business School Case 190-113, January 1990. (Revised March 1994.)