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      • Faculty Publications  (155)

      Decision TheoryRemove Decision Theory →

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      • March 2005
      • Article

      Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

      By: Robin Greenwood
      I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details
      Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan
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      Greenwood, Robin. "Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage." Journal of Financial Economics 75, no. 3 (March 2005): 607–649.
      • February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
      • Background Note

      Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product

      By: Elie Ofek
      Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods; Competition
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      Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product." Harvard Business School Background Note 505-062, February 2005. (Revised November 2016.)
      • September 2004
      • Article

      Trust in Agency

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell
      Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the... View Details
      Keywords: Trust; Agency Theory; Relationships; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Contracts; Business Model; Emotions; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Standards; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon. "Trust in Agency." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 13, no. 3 (September 2004): 375–404.
      • June 2004
      • Article

      A Catering Theory of Dividends

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We propose that the decision to pay dividends is driven by prevailing investor demand for dividend payers. Managers cater to investors by paying dividends when investors put a stock price premium on payers, and by not paying when investors prefer nonpayers. To test... View Details
      Keywords: Dividends; Catering; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Business and Shareholder Relations
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "A Catering Theory of Dividends." Journal of Finance 59, no. 3 (June 2004): 1125–1165.
      • 2003
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Compensatory Transfers in Two-Player Decision Problems

      By: Jerry R. Green
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Game Theory
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      Green, Jerry R. "Compensatory Transfers in Two-Player Decision Problems." February 2003.
      • 2002
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
      We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." NBER Working Paper Series, 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
      • May 2000
      • Article

      Maxmin Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Peter Klibanoff and Emre Ozdenoren
      This paper provides an axiomatic foundation for a maxmin expected utility over a set of priors (MMEU) decision rule in an environment where the elements of choice are Savage acts. This characterization complements the original axiomatizations of MMEU developed in a... View Details
      Keywords: Uncertainty Aversion; Ambiguity; Expected Utility; Set Of Priors; Knightian Uncertainty; Decision Making; Game Theory; Risk and Uncertainty; Mathematical Methods
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, Peter Klibanoff, and Emre Ozdenoren. "Maxmin Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors." Journal of Economic Theory 92, no. 1 (May 2000): 35–65.
      • June 1999
      • Article

      Projections onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA

      By: F. Frei and P. Harker
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory
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      Frei, F., and P. Harker. "Projections onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA." Journal of Productivity Analysis 11, no. 3 (June 1999): 275–300.
      • July 1998
      • Teaching Note

      Hawthorne Plastics, Inc. TN

      By: Paul W. Marshall, John S. Hammond and William L Berry
      Teaching Note for (9-171-004). View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Production; Cost; Quality; Theory; Management Practices and Processes; Decisions
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      Marshall, Paul W., John S. Hammond, and William L Berry. "Hawthorne Plastics, Inc. TN." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 399-004, July 1998.
      • fall 1995
      • Article

      Standard Setting Consortia, Antitrust, and High-Technology Industries

      By: James J. Anton and Dennis A. Yao
      Examines the antitrust treatment of private-sector standard setting in the U.S. Applicability of law and decision-making issues in high technology industries; Examination of cost-based facilitating theory; Approach to evaluate the reasonableness of a standard. View Details
      Keywords: Private Sector; Information Technology; Law; Decision Making; Cost; Theory; Performance Evaluation; Standards; United States
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      Anton, James J., and Dennis A. Yao. "Standard Setting Consortia, Antitrust, and High-Technology Industries." Antitrust Law Journal 64, no. 1 (fall 1995): 247–265. (Harvard users click here for full text.)
      • Article

      The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis

      By: S. N. Kaplan and R. S. Ruback
      Keywords: Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory
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      Kaplan, S. N., and R. S. Ruback. "The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis." Journal of Finance 50, no. 4 (September 1995).
      • 1995
      • Book

      Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory

      By: John W. Pratt, Howard Raiffa and Robert Schlaifer
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Decision Making; Theory
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      Pratt, John W., Howard Raiffa, and Robert Schlaifer. Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory. MIT Press, 1995.
      • 1994
      • Chapter

      Fairness in Decisions on Siting Noxious Facilities: Theory and Empirical Results

      By: Felix Oberholzer-Gee and Bruno S. Frey
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      Oberholzer-Gee, Felix, and Bruno S. Frey. "Fairness in Decisions on Siting Noxious Facilities: Theory and Empirical Results." In Environmental Standards in the European Union in an Interdisciplinary Framework, edited by Michael Faure, John Vervaele, and Albert Weale, 183–196. Antwerp: Maklu, 1994.
      • March 1993
      • Background Note

      Stages Theory, The: A Framework for IT Adoption and Organizational Learning

      By: Richard L. Nolan, David Croson and Katherine Seger
      Describes Professor Richard Nolan's Stages Theory of Information Technology adoption by organizations. View Details
      Keywords: Information; Body of Literature; Information Management; Information Publishing; Adoption; Organizational Structure; Organizational Design; Decision Making; Information Technology Industry
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      Nolan, Richard L., David Croson, and Katherine Seger. "Stages Theory, The: A Framework for IT Adoption and Organizational Learning." Harvard Business School Background Note 193-141, March 1993.
      • March 1992
      • Article

      Negotiator Cognition and Rationality: A Behavioral Decision Theory Perspective

      By: M. A. Neale and M. H. Bazerman
      Keywords: Negotiation; Cognition and Thinking; Behavior; Decision Making; Perspective; Theory
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      Neale, M. A., and M. H. Bazerman. "Negotiator Cognition and Rationality: A Behavioral Decision Theory Perspective." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 51, no. 2 (March 1992): 157–175.
      • January 1987
      • Article

      Posterior Implementability in a Two-person Decision Problem

      By: Jerry R. Green and Jean-Jacques Laffont
      When a decision rule is implemented using a Bayesian incentive compatible mechanism in which the messages are publicly observable, the players' information is augmented by their observation of each others' strategies. In this paper we study the set of Bayesian... View Details
      Keywords: Incentives; Commitment; Mechanism Design; Decision Making; Information
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      Green, Jerry R., and Jean-Jacques Laffont. "Posterior Implementability in a Two-person Decision Problem." Econometrica 55, no. 1 (January 1987): 69–94.
      • July 1986 (Revised August 1987)
      • Background Note

      Note on Comparative Advantage

      By: David B. Yoffie and John J. Coleman
      Discusses David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage and the refinement of his model developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. Presents several criticisms of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, including Wassily Leontief's empirical demonstration that the nature of... View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics; Trade; Theory
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      Yoffie, David B., and John J. Coleman. "Note on Comparative Advantage." Harvard Business School Background Note 387-023, July 1986. (Revised August 1987.)
      • January 1982
      • Article

      Empirical Analysis of the Commercial Loan Classification Decision

      By: Robert S. Kaplan and J. Richard Dietrich
      Keywords: Theory; Financing and Loans; Decision Making
      Citation
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      Kaplan, Robert S., and J. Richard Dietrich. "Empirical Analysis of the Commercial Loan Classification Decision." Accounting Review 57 (January 1982): 18–38.
      • 1982
      • Chapter

      Statistical Decision Theory Requiring Incentives for Information Transfer

      By: Jerry R. Green
      Citation
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      Green, Jerry R. "Statistical Decision Theory Requiring Incentives for Information Transfer." In The Economics of Information and Uncertainty, edited by J. J. McCall. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982.
      • July 1981
      • Article

      On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts

      By: Robert C. Merton
      Keywords: Investment; Performance; Theory; Value; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets
      Citation
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      Merton, Robert C. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts." Journal of Business 54, no. 3 (July 1981): 363–406.
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