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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,834)
- News (448)
- Research (2,172)
- Events (39)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,383)
- 26 Nov 2019
- News
Predicting Financial Market Bubbles and Crises in Real-time
turnover, age of the firm, and the percentage of firms that issued stock during a run-up, among other factors. Greenwood found that, while Fama was correct in asserting that sharp price increases do not predict lower returns going... View Details
- 30 May 2023
- News
Can AI Predict Whether Shoppers Would Pick Crest or Colgate?
- 2020
- Conference Presentation
Semantic Embeddings of Verbal Descriptions Predict Action Similarity Judgments
By: L. Tarhan, J. De Freitas, G. A. Alvarez and T. Konkle
- 08 Jan 2022
- News
Harvard And Stanford Professors Predict The Future Of Work
- 2011
- Article
A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction
By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth
Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness
Ert, Eyal, Ido Erev, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 2, no. 3 (September 2011): 257–276.
- June 2023
- Article
When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making
By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision
makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can
help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details
McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
- February 2022
- Teaching Note
Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI
By: Navid Mojir
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 521-053. View Details
- Summer 2021
- Article
Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths
By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim
We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy
Kobilov, Botir, Ethan Rouen, and George Serafeim. "Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths." Journal of Government and Economics 2 (Summer 2021).
- Article
Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage
By: K. A. DeCelles and Michael I. Norton
We posit that the modern airplane is a social microcosm of class-based society, and that the increasing incidence of “air rage” can be understood through the lens of inequality. Research on inequality typically examines the effects of relatively fixed, macrostructural... View Details
Keywords: Physical Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Behavior; Air Transportation; Situation or Environment
DeCelles, K. A., and Michael I. Norton. "Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 20 (May 17, 2016): 5588–5591.
- March 2003
- Article
Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming
By: Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman
Watkins, Michael D., and Max H. Bazerman. "Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming." Harvard Business Review 81, no. 3 (March 2003). (Reprinted in H. Balanoff (Ed.), Public Administration, McGraw-Hill, 2004.)
- Article
The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky
Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal... View Details
Keywords: Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Household; Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Forecasting and Prediction
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman, and Adam D. Galinsky. "The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation." Nature Human Behaviour 2, no. 10 (October 2018): 757–764.
- 16 Mar 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Amount and Diversity of Digital Emotional Expression Predicts Happiness
- July– September 2002
- Article
Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models
By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron
Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models." International Journal of Forecasting 18, no. 3 (July– September 2002): 359–368.
- Article
Beyond Individualized Recourse: Interpretable and Interactive Summaries of Actionable Recourses
By: Kaivalya Rawal and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As predictive models are increasingly being deployed in high-stakes decision-making, there has been a lot of interest in developing algorithms which can provide recourses to affected individuals. While developing such tools is important, it is even more critical to... View Details
Rawal, Kaivalya, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Beyond Individualized Recourse: Interpretable and Interactive Summaries of Actionable Recourses." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 33 (2020).
- 21 Oct 2015
- Research & Ideas
How to Predict if a New Business Idea is Any Good
other once unlikely, now successful startups (LinkedIn similarly got more than 20 rejections back in 2003) seem to beg: How do you tell a good idea from a bad one? “With startups, especially high-growth startups, it’s extremely hard to View Details
- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development
By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov
Predictive model development is understudied despite its centrality in modern artificial
intelligence and machine learning business applications. Although prior discussions
highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and
algorithms)... View Details
Keywords: Analytics and Data Science
Yue, Daniel, Paul Hamilton, and Iavor Bojinov. "Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-029, December 2022. (Revised April 2023.)
Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development
Predictive model development is understudied despite its importance to modern businesses. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms) as the primary driver of model quality, the value of... View Details
- Article
Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes
By: Michal Kosinki, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jure Leskovec
Kosinki, Michal, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Jure Leskovec. "Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes." Psychological Methods 21, no. 4 (December 2016): 493–506.