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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (878)
      • Faculty Publications  (155)

      Decision TheoryRemove Decision Theory →

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      • March 2008
      • Course Overview Note

      Dynamic Markets

      By: Joshua D. Coval and Erik Stafford
      The Dynamic Markets course at Harvard Business School is organized around the hands-on application of financial decision making in a wide variety of capital market settings. The course relies heavily on in-class simulations of a range of market settings where students... View Details
      Keywords: Value Creation; Decision Making; Capital Markets; Competitive Strategy; Profit; Applications and Software; Information; Strategy; Price; Outcome or Result; Curriculum and Courses; Theory
      Citation
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      Coval, Joshua D., and Erik Stafford. "Dynamic Markets." Harvard Business School Course Overview Note 208-143, March 2008.​
      • 2008
      • Book

      Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory

      By: John W. Pratt, Howard Raiffa and Robert Schlaifer
      Citation
      Related
      Pratt, John W., Howard Raiffa, and Robert Schlaifer. Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory. Paperback ed. MIT Press, 2008.
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      Embracing Commitment and Performance: CEOs and Practices Used to Manage Paradox

      By: Tobias Fredberg, Michael Beer, Russell Eisenstat, Nathaniel Foote and Flemming Norrgren
      We tend to assume that great leaders must make difficult choices between two or more conflicting outcomes. In an interview study with 26 CEOs of top American and European companies (incl. IKEA, Campbell Soups, Nokia, H&M), we find that instead of choosing between... View Details
      Keywords: Leadership; Managerial Roles; Performance; Strategy; Management Practices and Processes; Decision Choices and Conditions
      Citation
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      Fredberg, Tobias, Michael Beer, Russell Eisenstat, Nathaniel Foote, and Flemming Norrgren. "Embracing Commitment and Performance: CEOs and Practices Used to Manage Paradox." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-052, January 2008.
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Choice, Rationality and Welfare Measurement

      By: Jerry R. Green and Daniel A. Hojman
      We present a method for evaluating the welfare of a decision maker, based on observed choice data. Unlike the standard economic theory of revealed preference, our method can be used whether or not the observed choices are rational. Paralleling the standard theory we... View Details
      Keywords: Welfare Economics; Behavioral Economics; Psychology; Decision Making; Economics; Voting
      Citation
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      Green, Jerry R., and Daniel A. Hojman. "Choice, Rationality and Welfare Measurement." HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series, No. 2144, November 2007.
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Mental Accounting and Small Windfalls: Evidence from an Online Grocer

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, John Beshears, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman
      We study the effect of small windfalls on consumer spending decisions by examining the purchasing behavior of a sample of online grocery shoppers over the course of a year. We compare the purchases customers make when redeeming a $10-off coupon they received from their... View Details
      Keywords: Spending; Consumer Behavior; Mathematical Methods; Food and Beverage Industry; Retail Industry
      Citation
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      Milkman, Katherine L., John Beshears, Todd Rogers, and Max H. Bazerman. "Mental Accounting and Small Windfalls: Evidence from an Online Grocer." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-024, September 2007. (Revised March 2008.)
      • Article

      Reputation When Threats and Transfers Are Available

      By: Ernesto Dal Bo, Pedro Dal Bo and Rafael Di Tella
      We present a model where a long-run player is allowed to use both money transfers and threats to influence the decisions of a sequence of short-run players. We show that threats might be used credibly (even in arbitrarily short repeated games) by a long-lived player... View Details
      Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Decision Choices and Conditions; Game Theory; Mathematical Methods; Interests; Power and Influence; Reputation
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      Dal Bo, Ernesto, Pedro Dal Bo, and Rafael Di Tella. "Reputation When Threats and Transfers Are Available." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 16, no. 3 (Fall 2007).
      • 2007
      • Chapter

      Negotiation Analysis: Between Decisions and Games

      By: James K. Sebenius
      Keywords: Negotiation; Decision Making; Game Theory
      Citation
      Related
      Sebenius, James K. "Negotiation Analysis: Between Decisions and Games." In Advances in Decision Analysis, edited by Ward Edwards, Ralph Miles, and Detlof von Winterfeldt, 469–488. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
      • July 2007
      • Article

      A Two-Person Game of Information Transmission

      By: Jerry R. Green and Nancy L. Stokey
      We consider a statistical decision problem faced by a two player organization whose members may not agree on outcome evaluations and prior probabilities. One player is specialized in gathering information and transmitting it to the other, who takes the decision. This... View Details
      Keywords: Game Theory; Cheap Talk; Communication Games; Communication; Information
      Citation
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      Green, Jerry R., and Nancy L. Stokey. "A Two-Person Game of Information Transmission." Journal of Economic Theory 135, no. 1 (July 2007): 90–104.
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Correlated Equilibrium and Nash Equilibrium as an Observer's Assessment of the Game

      By: John Hillas, Elon Kohlberg and John W. Pratt
      Noncooperative games are examined from the point of view of an outside observer who believes that the players are rational and that they know at least as much as the observer. The observer is assumed to be able to observe many instances of the play of the game; these... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Game Theory; Cooperation
      Citation
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      Hillas, John, Elon Kohlberg, and John W. Pratt. "Correlated Equilibrium and Nash Equilibrium as an Observer's Assessment of the Game." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-005, July 2007.
      • 2007
      • Chapter

      Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey

      By: Malcolm Baker, Richard Ruback and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Research in behavioral corporate finance takes two distinct approaches. The first emphasizes that investors are less than fully rational. It views managerial financing and investment decisions as rational responses to securities market mispricing. The second approach... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Prejudice and Bias; Debt Securities; Financial Management; Price; Theory; Investment; Problems and Challenges; Behavioral Finance; Corporate Finance
      Citation
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      Baker, Malcolm, Richard Ruback, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey." In The Handbook of Corporate Finance, Volume 1: Empirical Corporate Finance, edited by Espen Eckbo. New York: Elsevier/North-Holland, 2007.
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      I'll Have the Ice Cream Soon and the Vegetables Later: A Study of Online Grocery Purchases and Order Lead Time

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman
      How do decisions made for tomorrow or two days in the future differ from decisions made for several days in the future? We use data from an online grocer to address this question. In general, we find that as the delay between order completion and delivery increases,... View Details
      Keywords: Internet and the Web; Food; Decision Choices and Conditions; Conflict and Resolution; Emotions; Cognition and Thinking; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry
      Citation
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Todd Rogers, and Max H. Bazerman. "I'll Have the Ice Cream Soon and the Vegetables Later: A Study of Online Grocery Purchases and Order Lead Time." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-078, April 2007. (Revised December 2007, May 2008, September 2008.)
      • Article

      Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Stocks; Investment Return; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Volatility; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavioral Finance
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market." Journal of Economic Perspectives 21, no. 2 (Spring 2007): 129–151.
      • November 2006 (Revised November 2009)
      • Course Overview Note

      Introduction to Competitive Dynamics: Strategy and Tactics

      By: Dennis A. Yao
      Provides an overview of the course Competitive Dynamics: Strategy and Tactics and discusses challenges facing those who wish to use game theory to assist in strategic and tactical decision making. View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Game Theory; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage
      Citation
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      Yao, Dennis A. "Introduction to Competitive Dynamics: Strategy and Tactics." Harvard Business School Course Overview Note 707-475, November 2006. (Revised November 2009.)
      • August 2006
      • Article

      Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details
      Keywords: Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility
      Citation
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1645–1680.
      • 2006
      • Chapter

      A Decision Perspective on Organizations: Social Cognition, Behavioral Decision Theory and the Psychological Links to Micro and Macro Organizational Behaviour

      By: M. A. Neale, A. E. Tenbrunsel, T. Galvin and M. H. Bazerman
      Keywords: Decision Making; Perspective; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Organizations; Mathematical Methods
      Citation
      Related
      Neale, M. A., A. E. Tenbrunsel, T. Galvin, and M. H. Bazerman. "A Decision Perspective on Organizations: Social Cognition, Behavioral Decision Theory and the Psychological Links to Micro and Macro Organizational Behaviour." In The SAGE Handbook of Organization Studies. 2nd ed. Edited by Stewart R. Clegg, Cynthia Hardy, Thomas Lawrence, and Walter Nord. Sage Publications, 2006.
      • April 2006
      • Module Note

      Asset Allocation: A Half-Course Module Note

      By: Luis M. Viceira
      Provides an overview of the main ideas and structure of a 15-session module on long-term asset allocation designed for MBA graduate students and investment professionals. This module is taught as part of a full-length, 30-session elective class on investment management... View Details
      Keywords: Asset Management; Investment; Decisions; Management; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Teaching; Theory
      Citation
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      Viceira, Luis M. "Asset Allocation: A Half-Course Module Note." Harvard Business School Module Note 206-133, April 2006.
      • April 2006
      • Teaching Note

      The Capital Structure Decision - Underlying Theory (TN)

      By: William E. Fruhan Jr.
      Keywords: Capital Structure
      Citation
      Purchase
      Related
      Fruhan, William E., Jr. "The Capital Structure Decision - Underlying Theory (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 206-136, April 2006.
      • 2006
      • Conference Paper

      Modeling Repeated Play of the Prisoners' Dilemma with Reinforcement Learning over an Enriched Strategy Set

      By: A. E. Roth and Ido Erev
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Strategy; Game Theory; Learning
      Citation
      Related
      Roth, A. E., and Ido Erev. "Modeling Repeated Play of the Prisoners' Dilemma with Reinforcement Learning over an Enriched Strategy Set." 2006. (Presented at the Dahlem Workshop on Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox.)
      • 2006
      • Working Paper

      The Limits of Authority: Motivation versus Coordination

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen

      This paper studies the effects of open disagreement on motivation and coordination. It shows how, in the presence of differing priors, motivation and coordination impose conflicting demands on the allocation of authority, leading to a trade-off between the... View Details

      Keywords: Decisions; Governance Controls; Organizational Culture; Agency Theory; Conflict and Resolution; Motivation and Incentives
      Citation
      SSRN
      Related
      Van den Steen, Eric J. "The Limits of Authority: Motivation versus Coordination." Sloan School of Management Working Paper, No. 4626-06, January 2006. (Available at SSRN.)
      • 2005
      • Working Paper

      Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Return; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
      Citation
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10449, April 2005. (First draft in 2003.)
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