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All HBS Web
(3,235)
- News (492)
- Research (2,449)
- Events (38)
- Multimedia (17)
- Faculty Publications (1,564)
- 25 Apr 2014
- Research & Ideas
To Pay or Not to Pay: Argentina and the International Debt Market
Editor's note. Argentina is in the midst of a continuing saga regarding its 2002 default on its sovereign debt, a case that the US Supreme Court will decide soon. HBS finance professor Laura Alfaro, who served from 2010 to 2012 as Minister of National Planning View Details
Keywords:
by Laura Alfaro
- 2005
- Working Paper
Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements
By: Malcolm Baker, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter and Jeffrey Wurgler
We consider measures of stock-picking skill of mutual fund managers based on the earnings announcement returns of the stocks that they hold and trade. Relative to standard approaches, this approach focuses on an especially informative subset of the returns data,...
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Keywords:
Stocks;
Asset Management;
Business Earnings;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Competency and Skills
Baker, Malcolm, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10685, February 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
Walter A. Friedman
Walter A. Friedman is Director of the Business History Initiative and Lecturer. He edits Business History Review with Geoff Jones. He specializes in business, labor, and economic history. He is author of Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First... View Details
- 01 Dec 2000
- News
Latin America's Decade
clear that the business models that succeed in the Internet sector and e-commerce in emerging markets such as Latin America will resemble those in the United States," says Kennedy. Despite this lag time, the Net is nonetheless causing...
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Keywords:
Garry Emmons and Julia Hanna;
Latin America;
research;
infrastructure;
Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments;
Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments;
Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments;
Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments;
Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments
- Article
Unexpected Benefits of Deciding by Mind Wandering
By: Colleen Giblin, Carey K. Morewedge and Michael I. Norton
The mind wanders, even when people are attempting to make complex decisions. We suggest that such mind wandering—allowing one's thoughts to wander until the "correct" choice comes to mind—can positively impact people's feelings about their decisions. We compare...
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Giblin, Colleen, Carey K. Morewedge, and Michael I. Norton. "Unexpected Benefits of Deciding by Mind Wandering." Art. 598. Frontiers in Psychology 4 (September 6, 2013).
- September 2002
- Case
Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand
By: H. Kent Bowen and Jonathan P Groberg
Align Technology is a four-year-old medical products company that has invented a new product requiring new manufacturing processes. Demand for the new product has grown more slowly than initial forecasts predicted, and the cost structure is preventing the company from...
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Keywords:
Health Care and Treatment;
Collaborative Innovation and Invention;
Problems and Challenges;
Product;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Marketing Strategy;
Sales;
Demand and Consumers;
Production;
Health Industry
Bowen, H. Kent, and Jonathan P Groberg. "Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand." Harvard Business School Case 603-058, September 2002.
- February 2018 (Revised December 2020)
- Case
People Analytics at Teach For America (A)
By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley
As of mid-2016, national nonprofit Teach For America (TFA) had struggled with three consecutive years of declining application totals, and senior management was re-examining the organization's strategy, including recruitment and selection. A few months earlier, former...
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Polzer, Jeffrey T., and Julia Kelley. "People Analytics at Teach For America (A)." Harvard Business School Case 418-013, February 2018. (Revised December 2020.)
- January 1999 (Revised June 2006)
- Case
Advanced Technologies, Inc.
By: Thomas R. Piper
The CEO of a semiconductor equipment manufacturer is assessing the financial forecasts and financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Continued rapid growth will create substantial financing pressures, especially if profitability fails to recover and/or if...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Earnings Management;
Financial Condition;
Financial Reporting;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation;
Outcome or Result;
Growth and Development;
Crisis Management;
Profit;
Financial Strategy;
Semiconductor Industry;
Manufacturing Industry
Piper, Thomas R. "Advanced Technologies, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 299-042, January 1999. (Revised June 2006.)
- Article
The Best of Both Worlds: Integrating Conscious and Unconscious Thought Best Solves Complex Decisions
Two studies address the debate over whether conscious or unconscious mental processes best handle complex decisions. According to Unconscious Thought Theory (Dijksterhuis & Nordgren, 2006), both modes of thinking have particular advantages: conscious thought can follow...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Values and Beliefs;
Information;
Knowledge Management;
Management Skills;
Management Style;
Measurement and Metrics;
Success;
Research;
Cognition and Thinking;
Personal Characteristics;
Perception
Nordgren, Loran F., Maarten W. Bos, and Ap Dijksterhuis. "The Best of Both Worlds: Integrating Conscious and Unconscious Thought Best Solves Complex Decisions." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 47, no. 2 (March 2011): 509–511.
- 19 Jan 2022
- Blog Post
From Retail to HBS: How I’m Building a Career Path at the Intersection of Arts, Culture, and Business
challenge to predict what would resonate with customers when dealing with such subjective, creative products – but that blend of art and science is also what made it so fun for me. Why did you decide to...
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- 2017
- Working Paper
Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers
By: Elisabeth Kempf, Alberto Manconi and Oliver Spalt
Learning by doing matters for professional investors. We develop a new methodology to show that mutual fund managers outperform in industries where they have obtained experience on the job. The key to our identification strategy is that we look "inside" funds and...
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Kempf, Elisabeth, Alberto Manconi, and Oliver Spalt. "Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 2124896, May 2017.
- July 2001
- Technical Note
Technical Note on LBO Valuation (A): LBO Structure and the Target IRR Method of Valuation
Explains the equity cash flow method of valuation as it applies to leveraged buyouts. Also explains: 1) earnings and cash flow forecasts, 2) debt structure and the cash sweep, 3) the cashing out horizon and terminal valuation, and 4) the target IRR method of valuation.
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Keywords:
Valuation;
Leveraged Buyouts;
Capital Budgeting;
Borrowing and Debt;
Cash Flow;
Equity;
Profit;
Price;
Forecasting and Prediction
Baldwin, Carliss Y. "Technical Note on LBO Valuation (A): LBO Structure and the Target IRR Method of Valuation." Harvard Business School Technical Note 902-004, July 2001.
- 01 Dec 1998
- News
Year 2000 Computer Problem and You: Disaster for Some, Lessons for All
With Y2K predictions running the gamut from glitches with home appliances to worldwide economic collapse, Y2K expert John F. Keane (MBA '54) assesses the situation as it appears with one year to go. John F. Keane is CEO View Details
- 2011
- Chapter
Prospective Codes Fufilled: A Potential Neural Mechanism of Will
By: Thalia Wheatley and Christine E. Looser
One of my few shortcomings is that I can’t predict the future.
Lars Ulrich, Metallica.
Lars Ulrich was right and wrong. He was right in the way we most often think about the future—as a long stretch of time during which multiply... View Details
Lars Ulrich, Metallica.
Lars Ulrich was right and wrong. He was right in the way we most often think about the future—as a long stretch of time during which multiply... View Details
Keywords:
Free Will;
Neuroscience;
Responsibility;
Prospection;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Science;
Cognition and Thinking
Wheatley, Thalia, and Christine E. Looser. "Prospective Codes Fufilled: A Potential Neural Mechanism of Will." Chap. 13 in Conscious Will and Responsibility: A Tribute to Benjamin Libet, edited by Walter Sinnott-Armstrong and Lynn Nadel, 146–158. New York: Oxford University Press, 2011.
- Research Summary
Voluntary Disclosure
Professor Kimbrough's early work focused on the determinants and economic consequences of firms’ disclosure practices related to earnings. This included examinations of management forecasts and earnings-related conference calls.
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- February 1982 (Revised August 1985)
- Case
U.S. Retail Coffee Market (A)
Set in mid-1978, this case covers all aspects of the U.S. retail coffee market both cross-sectionally and historically. The market is recovering from dramatic price rises and volume drops. The overall issue is the forecast of future market evolution and the...
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Keywords:
Marketing Strategy;
Industry Growth;
Market Timing;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
United States
Yip, George S., and Jeffrey R Williams. "U.S. Retail Coffee Market (A)." Harvard Business School Case 582-087, February 1982. (Revised August 1985.)
- April 2002 (Revised July 2002)
- Case
Imagicast
By: John T. Gourville and Alison Berkley Wagonfeld
Imagicast has brought to market an interactive, multimedia retail kiosk designed to increase product sales. In spite of promising projections by industry analysts and detailed demand forecasts by Imagicast management, the company has yet to sell a single kiosk. Time...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Crisis Management;
Product Launch;
Demand and Consumers;
Sales;
Technology;
Retail Industry;
United States
Gourville, John T., and Alison Berkley Wagonfeld. "Imagicast." Harvard Business School Case 502-052, April 2002. (Revised July 2002.)
- 12 Jul 2016
- First Look
July 12, 2016
Calibrating the model to data from the Financial Accounts of the U.S., the optimal capital requirement is around 20%. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=51305 Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private View Details
Keywords:
Sean Silverthorne
- June 2023
- Case
Tractor Supply Co
By: David L. Ager and Michael A. Roberto
In February 2023, Hal Lawton, CEO of Tractor Supply Co, the largest farm and ranch retailer in the United States reflected on the company’s 70% growth between 2019 and 2022. Economists had begun to predict an economic downturn and experts were predicting softening...
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Demand and Consumers;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Retail Industry
Ager, David L., and Michael A. Roberto. "Tractor Supply Co." Harvard Business School Case 923-302, June 2023.
- December 1970 (Revised September 2006)
- Case
Harmon Foods, Inc.
Prediction and shipment has been a scheduling and budgetary problem. Multiple regression is suggested as a solution. Evaluation of regression coefficients leads to better understanding of trend, seasonality, and promotion effectiveness.
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Keywords:
Demand and Consumers;
Production;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Budgets and Budgeting;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry
Whiston, William B. "Harmon Foods, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 171-248, December 1970. (Revised September 2006.)