Forecasting And Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research

06 Mar 2018
First Look

First Look at Research and Ideas, March 6, 2018

international equity markets, with a highly significant average slope coefficient of close to 1. In contrast, ERPs based on the implied cost of equity or standard factor models—even those with factors based on book-to-market and... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

27 Dec 2015
Research & Ideas

The Most Popular Stories and Research Papers of 2015

Strategy, Especially in a Job Interview (25,829) While humblebragging runs rampant on Twitter, it's a lousy self-promotion tactic that usually backfires according to recent research by Ovul Sezer, Francesca Gino, and Michael Norton. How... View Details

13 Jun 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, June 13

May 2017 American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings Immigration and the Rise of American Ingenuity By: Akcigit, Ufuk, John Grigsby, and Tom Nicholas Abstract—We build on... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

23 May 2017
First Look

First Look at New Ideas and Research: May 23, 2017

arbitrariness of the set. Drawing on Gestalt psychology, we develop a conceptual account that predicts what will—and will not—act as a pseudo-set and defines the psychological process through which these... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

June 2018 (Revised October 2018)
Teaching Note

Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (A), (B), and (C)

By: Marco Di Maggio and Benjamin C. Esty

Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 218-095, 218-096, and 218-116. View Details

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23 Jan 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, January 23, 2018

features a regime-switching short-rate model. We evaluate the out-of-sample performance of our model in terms of forecasting ability and coverage properties and find that it... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

19 Sep 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, September 19

company's crowdsourcing weather-forecasting service in Japan. It changed the face of weather forecasting in Japan. Bashi and LeStage wondered whether the experience could be applied to the U.S. market.... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

01 Apr 1996
News

Stasis and Turmoil: HBS Research for the Real World

The second in a series of occasional reports on current research from some of the many faculty members whose classroom presentations to alumni have been a cornerstone of recent HBS reunions, this month we report on Professor Howard H. Stevenson's examination of View Details

January–February 2024
Article

The Challenge of Maintaining Passion for Work over Time: A Daily Perspective on Passion and Emotional Exhaustion

By: Joy Bredehorst, Kai Krautter, Jirs Meuris and Jon M. Jachimowicz

Passion for work is highly coveted, but many employees report struggling to maintain their passion over time. In the current research, we explain the challenge of pursuing passion by conceptualizing passion as an attribute with temporal variation. Viewed through a... View Details

Keywords: Passion; Work-Life Balance; Employees; Emotions

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20 Feb 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, February 20, 2018

policy instruments, and defaults. On the other hand, understanding the precise mechanisms underlying consumer losses is essential to predicting the impact of mechanism policies aimed primarily at reducing... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Web

Space, Public And Commercial Economics (SPACE) - Course Catalog

aspects of the sector. Educational Objectives Develop an informed view on the history of and recent dramatic changes in how the space sector functions, including the evolving relationship between public and... View Details

Spring 2013
Article

Does Mandatory IFRS Adoption Improve the Information Environment?

By: Joanne Horton, George Serafeim and Ioanna Serafeim

We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that mandatorily adopt IFRS relative to forecast... View Details

Keywords: International Accounting; Financial Reporting; Standards; Information; Quality; Earnings Management

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Grant uses a combination of laboratory and field experiments to harness consumers' cognitive and affective resources to increase their well-being. Consumers make countless daily decisions in the pursuit of happiness -- whether and how to spend or save their money, what... View Details

Keywords: Well-being; Judgment And Decision Making; Health; Prosocial Behavior

01 Jun 2008
News

Watching the Brain Think and the Surprises of Science

“ One unstated objective of science is to make a difference: to learn something, or make something, that changes the way people think or behave. Many of the biggest discoveries — the most important scientifically and the most... View Details

Keywords: science; Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools; Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools; Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools; Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools; Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools

25 Jul 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas: July 25, 2017

cast may deviate dramatically from pure QV predictions because of the complex and refined nature of equilibrium play. Most plausibly, voting behavior and outcomes would be... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

08 May 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, May 8, 2018

1979). Counter to this notion, results from six experiments show that lay people adhere more to advice when they think it comes from an algorithm than from a person. People showed this sort of algorithm appreciation when making numeric estimates about a visual stimulus... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

20 Mar 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, March 20, 2018

https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=54214 forthcoming Operations Research Online Network Revenue Management Using Thompson Sampling: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization By: Ferreira, Kris... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

18 Apr 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, April 18, 2018

predict biosimilar entry, price, and penetration, finding significant heterogeneity across countries and products. Effective buyer institutions are associated with increased... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

29 Aug 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, August 29

Documenting the actual levels of inequality within and across countries is generally considered a critical input to the design of economic and social policy (7–10); we suggest that assessing laypeople’s... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

March 2011
Article

Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?

By: John Beshears and Katherine L. Milkman

This paper presents evidence that when an analyst makes an out-of-consensus forecast of a company's quarterly earnings that turns out to be incorrect, she escalates her commitment to maintaining an out-of-consensus view on the company. Relative to an analyst who was... View Details

Keywords: Escalation Of Commitment; Stock Market; Updating; Behavioral Economics; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Consumer Behavior; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

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