Publications

September 2021
Article

Income More Reliably Predicts Frequent Than Intense Happiness

By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Ruo Mo, Adam Eric Greenberg, Bertus Jeronimus and Ashley V. Whillans

There is widespread consensus that income and subjective well-being are linked, but when and why they are connected is subject to ongoing debate. We draw on prior research that distinguishes between the frequency and intensity of happiness to suggest that higher income... View Details

Keywords: Life Satisfaction; Time Use; Happiness; Income; Money; Satisfaction

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28 Apr 2015
News

Data Science Contest “Keeping it Fresh”: Predict Restaurant Health Scores

Article

A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth

A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition

June 2012
Article

Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details

Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit

December 2005
Article

Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

By: Greg Allenby, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter and Joan Walker

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Markets; Behavior

05 Jun 2017
News

5 Takeaways For The C-Suite From 2016's Vote Prediction Debacles

Article

Attention Prediction on Social Media Brand Pages

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jitendra Ajmera

November 15, 2016
Article

Prediction Markets Didn't Call Trump's Win, Either

By: Scott Duke Kominers

27 Feb 2015
News

Harvard Business School Professors Predict Retail Revolution

May 2024
Article

Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others

By: Rachel Ruttan, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli and Katherine DeCelles

Existing work on attribution theory distinguishes between external and internal attributions (i.e., “I overcame adversity due to luck” vs. “my own effort”). We introduce the construct of relational resilience attributions (i.e., “due to help from other people”) as a... View Details

Keywords: Personal Characteristics; Forecasting and Prediction; Attitudes; Behavior

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July 2019
Article

'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity

By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis

When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Creativity; Forecasting and Prediction

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May 2022
Supplement

Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (B)

By: Navid Mojir and Gamze Yucaoglu

Borusan Cat is an international distributor of Caterpillar heavy machines. In 2021, it had been three years since Ozgur Gunaydin (CEO) and Esra Durgun (Director of Strategy, Digitization, and Innovation) started working on Muneccim, the company’s predictive AI tool.... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Commercialization; Technology Adoption; Industrial Products Industry; Turkey; Middle East

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August 2006
Article

Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?

By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler

Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance... View Details

Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Fairness; Managerial Roles; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Equity; Bonds; Financial Markets; Investment; Capital Markets; Borrowing and Debt; Investment Return