Publications

2011
Other Unpublished Work

Military Ties, New Ventures, and Political Risk Management in Emerging Economies

By: Shon R. Hiatt and Wesley Sine

New ventures in emerging economies face a number of challenges such as political instability, corruption, and uncertain property rights that can severely hinder their ability to grow and survive, yet little is known about how startups can mitigate such risk. Using data... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Business Startups; Government and Politics; Developing Countries and Economies; Latin America

2017
Article

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira

The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management

Article

The Impact of Personal Genomics on Risk Perceptions and Medical Decision-Making

By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Fiona Murray, J. Scott Roberts and Robert C. Green

Keywords: Medicine; Psychology; Economics; Policy

28 Nov 2023
Book

Economic Growth Draws Companies to Asia. Can They Handle Its Authoritarian Regimes?

and others do not, or for why some crony relationships facilitate growth and others create crisis or stagnation. What strategies do authoritarian political elites adopt to manage the business class? What kinds of strategies succeed, for example by securing political... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

February 2018
Article

Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection

By: Robert F. Engle and Emil N. Siriwardane

During the financial crisis, financial firm leverage and volatility both rose dramatically. Consequently, institutions are being asked to reduce leverage in order to reduce risk, though the effectiveness depends upon the role of capital structure in volatility. To... View Details

Keywords: Leverage; Credit Risk; Crisis Management; Equity; Volatility; Credit; Risk Management; Financial Crisis

11 Dec 2020
Research & Ideas

Economic Jitters Push Pandemic Job Seekers to Big Companies, Not Startups

The coronavirus pandemic is spurring job applicants to seek positions at big companies and avoid startups in what new research calls an economic “flight to safety.” Job applicants using AngelList Talent, the largest online recruitment... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

2009
Working Paper

An Ounce of Prevention: The Power of Public Risk Management in Stabilizing the Financial System

By: David A. Moss

The magnitude of the current financial crisis reflects the failure of an economic and regulatory philosophy that had proved increasingly influential in policy circles over the past three decades.

This paper suggests (1) that contrary to the prevailing wisdom,... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Financial Institutions; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk Management; Business and Government Relations; Balance and Stability

Article

From Netscape to eHarmony: The High Risks and Big Rewards of Platform Markets

By: Dylan B. Minor

Keywords: Leadership; Service Delivery; Mobile Technology; Economics

Article

Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details

Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States

October 7, 2021
Article

Carbon Might Be Your Company’s Biggest Financial Liability

By: Robert G. Eccles and John Mulliken

The price of carbon may be zero in many places today, but it’s unlikely to remain zero for long. That means that many companies have hidden liabilities on their books. To cover their carbon short position, executives can take several steps: Measure the position in... View Details

Keywords: Climate Risk; Climate Finance; Risk Management; Governance; Environmental Accounting; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability

2019
Other Unpublished Work

Mexico's Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico

By: Laura Alfaro, Augusto de la Torre, Guillermo Calvo, Roque Benjamin Fernandez, Pablo Guidotti, Paulo Leme, Enrique Mendoza, Guillermo Perry, Carmen Reinhart and Liliana Rojas-Suarez

Keywords: Financial Risk; Finance; Economics; Mexico; Latin America

May 2013 (Revised September 2013)
Case

The Kashagan Production Sharing Agreement (PSA)

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Florian Bitsch

When discovered in the 1990s, the Kashagan oil field was the second largest oil field in the world. The project sponsors (equity investors) signed a 40-year production sharing agreement (PSA) with the Kazakh government in 1997, with the expectation the field would... View Details

Educators

Purchase

October 2020
Case

HOPE and Transformational Lending: Netflix Invests in Black Led Banks

By: John D. Macomber and Janice Broome Brooks

Following the killing of George Floyd on Memorial Day in 2020, the large US corporation Netflix elected to make a "transformational deposit" of $10 million into Hope Credit Union (HCU), a small Black led community development finance institution (CDFI) based in... View Details

Keywords: Banking; Rural Entrepreneurship; Economic Development; Black Entrepreneurs; Economic Growth; Credit; Banks and Banking; Entrepreneurship; Rural Scope; Development Economics; Race; Investment; Decision Making; Banking Industry

Educators

August 2, 2016
Article

Uncalculating Cooperation Is Used to Signal Trustworthiness

By: Jillian J. Jordan, Moshe Hoffman, Martin A. Nowak and David G. Rand

Humans frequently cooperate without carefully weighing the costs and benefits. As a result, people may wind up cooperating when it is not worthwhile to do so. Why risk making costly mistakes? Here, we present experimental evidence that reputation concerns provide an... View Details

Keywords: Social Evaluation; Experimental Economics; Moral Psychology; Cooperation; Reputation; Decision Making

September 2012 (Revised September 2014)
Case

Doing Business in Brazil

By: Aldo Musacchio, Gustavo A. Herrero, Ricardo Reisen de Pinho, Cintra Scott and Jill Avery

This case examines the challenges and opportunities of doing business in Brazil. It highlights Brazil's ongoing economic transformation in the decades leading up to 2014 in the context of its historical, political, and cultural background. The case summarizes some of... View Details

Keywords: Emerging Market Finance; Emergent Countries; Business History; Economic History; Emerging Markets; Business Ventures; Strategy; Brazil

Educators

Teaching Interest

Cities, Structures, and Climate Shocks

By: John D. Macomber

This course is about building sustainable and resilient cities, future proofing real estate and infrastructure assets, and examining how businesses and investors find opportunities in climate adaptation.

The world faces substantial challenges in the face of... View Details

Keywords: Sustainability; Economic Development; Climate Finance; Migration; Climate Change; Adaptation; Urban Development; Real Estate Industry; Construction Industry; Energy Industry; Utilities Industry; Insurance Industry; Banking Industry

2016
Working Paper

Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity

By: Gordon Y Liao

I document economically large and persistent discrepancies in the pricing of credit risk between corporate bonds denominated in different currencies. The discrepancies amount to 50-100 basis points on trillions of dollars of debt notional. I relate this violation of... View Details

Keywords: Market Segmentation; Debt Issuance; Covered Interest Rate Parity; Cross-currency Basis; Credit Risk; Financial Markets; Credit

April 2015
Article

Incentivizing Calculated Risk-Taking: Evidence from an Experiment with Commercial Bank Loan Officers

By: Shawn Cole, Martin Kanz and Leora Klapper

This paper uses a series of experiments with commercial bank loan officers to test the effect of performance incentives on risk assessment and lending decisions. We first show that while high-powered incentives lead to greater screening effort and more profitable... View Details

Keywords: Banking; Management Processes; Credit Products; Experimental Economics; Risk Management; Motivation and Incentives; Management Practices and Processes; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry

June 2014
Article

Frictions in Shadow Banking: Evidence from the Lending Behavior of Money Market Funds

By: Sergey Chernenko and Adi Sunderam

We document the consequences of money market fund risk taking during the European sovereign debt crisis. Using a novel data set of security-level holdings of prime money market funds, we show that funds with large exposures to risky Eurozone banks suffered significant... View Details

Keywords: Money Market Mutual Funds; European Sovereign Debt Crisis; Runs; Contagion; Risk Taking; Investment Funds; Financial Crisis; Europe