Economic Risk - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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January 2025 (Revised April 2025)
Case

Doing Business in Cairo: Navigating a Path to Economic Resilience

By: A. Zelleke and Ahmed Dahawy

Egypt has long been a pivotal force in the Middle East and North Africa. Located at a crossroads of global trade routes, the country was a strategic partner for numerous regional and global powers. However, a substantial currency devaluation in 2016 brought many... View Details

Keywords: Business; Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Globalized Economies and Regions; International Relations; Emerging Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Culture; Economy; Country; Currency; Investment; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Egypt

2017
Article

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira

The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management

2013
Working Paper

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details

Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States

January 2000 (Revised November 2001)
Case

Mavesa (A): Business Strategy Amid Economic and Political Turmoil

Examines Mavesa's response to external liberalization in 1989. The consumer packaged goods firm, which had been extensively vertically integrated, completely revamps its business strategy in the 1990s. View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Economy; Business Strategy; Government and Politics

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2011
Other Unpublished Work

Military Ties, New Ventures, and Political Risk Management in Emerging Economies

By: Shon R. Hiatt and Wesley Sine

New ventures in emerging economies face a number of challenges such as political instability, corruption, and uncertain property rights that can severely hinder their ability to grow and survive, yet little is known about how startups can mitigate such risk. Using data... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Business Startups; Government and Politics; Developing Countries and Economies; Latin America

Article

The Impact of Personal Genomics on Risk Perceptions and Medical Decision-Making

By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Fiona Murray, J. Scott Roberts and Robert C. Green

Keywords: Medicine; Psychology; Economics; Policy

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28 Nov 2023
Book

Economic Growth Draws Companies to Asia. Can They Handle Its Authoritarian Regimes?

and others do not, or for why some crony relationships facilitate growth and others create crisis or stagnation. What strategies do authoritarian political elites adopt to manage the business class? What kinds of strategies succeed, for example by securing political... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

Article

Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details

Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States

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February 2018
Article

Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection

By: Robert F. Engle and Emil N. Siriwardane

During the financial crisis, financial firm leverage and volatility both rose dramatically. Consequently, institutions are being asked to reduce leverage in order to reduce risk, though the effectiveness depends upon the role of capital structure in volatility. To... View Details

Keywords: Leverage; Credit Risk; Crisis Management; Equity; Volatility; Credit; Risk Management; Financial Crisis

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11 Dec 2020
Research & Ideas

Economic Jitters Push Pandemic Job Seekers to Big Companies, Not Startups

The coronavirus pandemic is spurring job applicants to seek positions at big companies and avoid startups in what new research calls an economic “flight to safety.” Job applicants using AngelList Talent, the largest online recruitment... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

2009
Working Paper

An Ounce of Prevention: The Power of Public Risk Management in Stabilizing the Financial System

By: David A. Moss

The magnitude of the current financial crisis reflects the failure of an economic and regulatory philosophy that had proved increasingly influential in policy circles over the past three decades.

This paper suggests (1) that contrary to the prevailing wisdom,... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Financial Institutions; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk Management; Business and Government Relations; Balance and Stability

October 7, 2021
Article

Carbon Might Be Your Company’s Biggest Financial Liability

By: Robert G. Eccles and John Mulliken

The price of carbon may be zero in many places today, but it’s unlikely to remain zero for long. That means that many companies have hidden liabilities on their books. To cover their carbon short position, executives can take several steps: Measure the position in... View Details

Keywords: Climate Risk; Climate Finance; Risk Management; Governance; Environmental Accounting; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability

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Article

From Netscape to eHarmony: The High Risks and Big Rewards of Platform Markets

By: Dylan B. Minor

Keywords: Leadership; Service Delivery; Mobile Technology; Economics

2019
Other Unpublished Work

Mexico's Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico

By: Laura Alfaro, Augusto de la Torre, Guillermo Calvo, Roque Benjamin Fernandez, Pablo Guidotti, Paulo Leme, Enrique Mendoza, Guillermo Perry, Carmen Reinhart and Liliana Rojas-Suarez

Keywords: Financial Risk; Finance; Economics; Mexico; Latin America

January 2025
Supplement

Hippo: Weathering the Storm of the Home Insurance Crisis (B)

By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan

Rick McCathron, CEO of Hippo, was optimistic about the InsurTech's path to profitability after navigating the financial uncertainties of 2022. By bundling their home insurance services with third-parties and established insurance incumbents, Hippo was adopting a... View Details

May 2013 (Revised September 2013)
Case

The Kashagan Production Sharing Agreement (PSA)

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Florian Bitsch

When discovered in the 1990s, the Kashagan oil field was the second largest oil field in the world. The project sponsors (equity investors) signed a 40-year production sharing agreement (PSA) with the Kazakh government in 1997, with the expectation the field would... View Details

October 2020
Case

HOPE and Transformational Lending: Netflix Invests in Black Led Banks

By: John D. Macomber and Janice Broome Brooks

Following the killing of George Floyd on Memorial Day in 2020, the large US corporation Netflix elected to make a "transformational deposit" of $10 million into Hope Credit Union (HCU), a small Black led community development finance institution (CDFI) based in... View Details

Keywords: Banking; Rural Entrepreneurship; Economic Development; Black Entrepreneurs; Economic Growth; Credit; Banks and Banking; Entrepreneurship; Rural Scope; Development Economics; Race; Investment; Decision Making; Banking Industry

August 2, 2016
Article

Uncalculating Cooperation Is Used to Signal Trustworthiness

By: Jillian J. Jordan, Moshe Hoffman, Martin A. Nowak and David G. Rand

Humans frequently cooperate without carefully weighing the costs and benefits. As a result, people may wind up cooperating when it is not worthwhile to do so. Why risk making costly mistakes? Here, we present experimental evidence that reputation concerns provide an... View Details

Keywords: Social Evaluation; Experimental Economics; Moral Psychology; Cooperation; Reputation; Decision Making

April 2015
Article

Incentivizing Calculated Risk-Taking: Evidence from an Experiment with Commercial Bank Loan Officers

By: Shawn Cole, Martin Kanz and Leora Klapper

This paper uses a series of experiments with commercial bank loan officers to test the effect of performance incentives on risk assessment and lending decisions. We first show that while high-powered incentives lead to greater screening effort and more profitable... View Details

Keywords: Banking; Management Processes; Credit Products; Experimental Economics; Risk Management; Motivation and Incentives; Management Practices and Processes; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry

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September 2012 (Revised September 2014)
Case

Doing Business in Brazil

By: Aldo Musacchio, Gustavo A. Herrero, Ricardo Reisen de Pinho, Cintra Scott and Jill Avery

This case examines the challenges and opportunities of doing business in Brazil. It highlights Brazil's ongoing economic transformation in the decades leading up to 2014 in the context of its historical, political, and cultural background. The case summarizes some of... View Details

Keywords: Emerging Market Finance; Emergent Countries; Business History; Economic History; Emerging Markets; Business Ventures; Strategy; Brazil

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