Publications

11 Dec 2007
First Look

First Look: December 11, 2007

expectations to businesspeople. He also published forecasts through syndicated newspaper columns and made public pronouncements on the future of the economy—including a notorious statement on the eve of the October 1929 stock-market crash that optimistically View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

September 2023
Supplement

Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth (B)

By: Mark Egan

As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details

Keywords: Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Expansion; Production; Apparel and Accessories Industry

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2024
Working Paper

Corporate Debt, Boom-Bust Cycles, and Financial Crises

By: Victoria Ivashina, Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Luc Laeven and Karsten Müller

Using a new dataset on sectoral credit exposures covering financial and non-financial sectors in 115 economies over the period 1940–2014, we document the following evidence that corporate debt plays a key role in explaining boom-bust cycles, financial crises, and slow... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Growth; Economic Sectors; Borrowing and Debt; Credit

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Forthcoming
Article

Automatic Enrollment with a 12% Default Contribution Rate

By: John Beshears, Ruofei Guo, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and James J. Choi

We study a retirement savings plan with a default contribution rate of 12% of income, which is much higher than previously studied defaults. Twenty-five percent of employees had not opted out of this default 12 months after hire; a literature review finds that the... View Details

Keywords: Retirement Savings; Defined Contribution Retirement Plan; Automatic Enrollment; Retirement; Saving; Income; Decision Choices and Conditions

2021
Working Paper

Salience

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their... View Details

Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior

June 2020
Article

Air Pollution, State Anxiety, and Unethical Behavior: A Meta-Analytic Review

By: J Lu, J. Lee, F. Gino and A. Galinsky

Lu, Lee, Gino, and Galinsky (2018) reported four studies demonstrating that air pollution predicted unethical behavior and that one mediating mechanism was state anxiety. In contrast, Heck and colleagues reported two null-effect studies on air pollution, trait... View Details

Keywords: State Anxiety; Pollution; Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Analysis

April 2014
Article

The Emergence of 'Us and Them' in 80 Lines of Code: Modeling Group Genesis in Homogeneous Populations

By: Kurt Gray, David G. Rand, Eyal Ert, Kevin Lewis, Steve Hershman and Michael I. Norton

Psychological explanations of group genesis often require population heterogeneity in identity or other characteristics, whether deep (e.g., religion) or superficial (e.g., eye color). We use game-theoretical agent-based models to explore group genesis in homogeneous... View Details

Keywords: Groups and Teams

Article

The Persuasive 'Power' of Stigma?

By: Michael I. Norton, Elizabeth W. Dunn, Dana R. Carney and Dan Ariely

We predicted that able-bodied individuals and white Americans would have a difficult time saying no to persuasive appeals offered by disabled individuals and black Americans, due to their desire to make such interactions proceed smoothly. In two experiments, we show... View Details

Keywords: Persuasion; Stigma; Interactions; Interracial Relations; Power and Influence; Personal Characteristics; Interpersonal Communication; Attitudes

May 1999 (Revised March 2001)
Case

Marshall Industries

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport

Confounding predictions that the Internet would "disintermediate" commerce, making "middle man" companies all but obsolete, Marshall Industries, a leading electronics distributor, used the Internet and digital technologies to reinvent itself. Marshall continued to sell... View Details

Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Digital Platforms; Internet and the Web; Supply Chain; Emerging Markets; Customer Focus and Relationships; Distribution Industry; Electronics Industry

Educators

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13 Feb 2024
HBS Seminar

Stijn van Osselaer, Cornell SC Johnson College of Business

October 2010
Article

Preferring Balanced vs. Advantageous Peace Agreements: A Study of Israeli Attitudes Towards a Two-State Solution

By: Deepak Malhotra and Jeremy Ginges

The paper extends research on fixed-pie perceptions by suggesting that disputants may prefer proposals that are perceived to be equally attractive to both parties (i.e., balanced) rather than one-sided, because balanced agreements are seen as more likely to be... View Details

Keywords: Fixed Pie; Balance; Peace; Negotiation; Agreements and Arrangements; Conflict and Resolution; Government and Politics; Balance and Stability; Forecasting and Prediction; Attitudes; Israel; Palestinian state

Web

Lifelong Learning - Alumni

provide an innovation edge? Re: Letian Zhang (Assistant Professor of Business Administration) 25 Jan 2024 HBR 6 Ways AI Could Disrupt Your Business Six scenarios that all boards must consider—and then act upon—ranging from predicting... View Details

20 Aug 2013
First Look

First Look: August 20

Publications August 2013 Marketing Science Do Bonuses Enhance Sales Productivity? A Dynamic Structural Analysis of Bonus-Based Compensation Plans By: Chung, Doug J., Thomas Steenburgh, and K. Sudhir Abstract—We estimate a dynamic structural model of sales force... View Details

Keywords: Anna Secino

Web

Students on the Job Market - Doctoral

complexity measures predict choice errors, choice inconsistency, and cognitive uncertainty in binary choice data across all three domains. Second, we document that manipulations of comparison complexity can reverse classic behavioral... View Details

July – August 2011
Article

Foundations of Organizational Trust: What Matters to Different Stakeholders?

By: Michael Pirson and Deepak Malhotra

Prior research on organizational trust has not rigorously examined the context specificity of trust nor distinguished between the potentially varying dimensions along which different stakeholders base their trust. As a result, dominant conceptualizations of... View Details

Keywords: Trust; Competency and Skills; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Framework; Analytics and Data Science; Surveys; Organizations; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Identity; Perspective

03 Apr 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Clear and Present Danger: Planning and New Venture Survival Amid Political and Civil Violence

Keywords: by Shon Hiatt & Wesley Sine

17 Oct 2023
HBS Case

With Subscription Fatigue Setting In, Companies Need to Think Hard About Fees

structure also has to be ‘right’ in order to be successful.” Benefiting from subscriptions while guarding against subscription fatigue For companies, the benefits of the subscription model include more stable and predictable revenue... View Details

Keywords: by Jay Fitzgerald; Consumer Products; Information; Information Technology

13 Nov 2020
News

Global Ambition

Vivian Kao and Shou Zi Chew (both MBA 2010) Vivian Kao and Shou Zi Chew (both MBA 2010) are a couple who often finish each other sentences. The two met over email in 2008 shortly after they’d both been admitted to HBS, but neither could have View Details

April–May 2024
Article

Gone with the Big Data: Institutional Lender Demand for Private Information

By: Jung Koo Kang

I explore whether big-data sources can crowd out the value of private information acquired through lending relationships. Institutional lenders have been shown to exploit their access to borrowers’ private information by trading on it in financial markets. As a shock... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Markets; Value; Knowledge Dissemination; Financing and Loans

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