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All HBS Web
(778)
- Faculty Publications (152)
- 2013
- Working Paper
Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient capital...
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Keywords:
Risk and Uncertainty;
Cost of Capital;
Capital Markets;
Banks and Banking;
Banking Industry;
United States
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19018, May 2013.
- May 2013
- Article
The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts
Prior research on equity analysts focuses almost exclusively on those employed by sell-side investment banks and brokerage houses. Yet investment firms undertake their own buy-side research and their analysts face different stock selection and recommendation incentives...
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Keywords:
Buy-side Analysts;
Sell-side Analysts;
Stock Recommendations;
Recommendation Optimism;
Recommendation Performance;
Investment Recommendations;
Conflicts Of Interest;
Financial Markets;
Financial Institutions;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Groysberg, Boris, Paul Healy, George Serafeim, and Devin Shanthikumar. "The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts." Management Science 59, no. 5 (May 2013): 1062–1075.
- 2013
- Article
Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance
By: David F. Larcker, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
Firms with central or well-connected boards of directors earn superior risk-adjusted stock returns. Initiating a long position in the most central firms and a short position in the least central firms earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with...
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Larcker, David F., Eric C. So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance." Journal of Accounting & Economics 55, nos. 2-3 (April–May 2013): 225–250.
- March 2013
- Article
Misvaluing Innovation
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in...
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Keywords:
Innovation;
Return Predictability;
R&D;
Information;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Research and Development;
Innovation and Invention
Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Misvaluing Innovation." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 3 (March 2013): 635–666.
- June 2012
- Article
The Economic Value of Celebrity Endorsements
By: Anita Elberse and Jeroen Verleun
What is the payoff to enlisting celebrity endorsers? Although effects on stock returns are relatively well documented, little is known about any impact on sales—arguably a metric of more direct importance to advertising practitioners. In this study of athlete...
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Keywords:
Stocks;
Value;
Advertising;
Sales;
Brands and Branding;
Decisions;
Economics;
Marketing Strategy;
Investment Return
Elberse, Anita, and Jeroen Verleun. "The Economic Value of Celebrity Endorsements." Journal of Advertising Research 52, no. 2 (June 2012): 149–165.
- November 2012
- Case
Ahold versus Tesco—Analyzing Performance
By: Suraj Srinivasan and Penelope Rossano
The case relates to understanding and comparing the performance of two leading retail companies—Ahold and Tesco. The case introduces the tools of Dupont and Modified Dupont Decomposition. While performance as measured by return on equity has been similar for the two...
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Srinivasan, Suraj, and Penelope Rossano. "Ahold versus Tesco—Analyzing Performance." Harvard Business School Case 113-040, November 2012.
- October 2012
- Article
The Effect of Reference Point Prices on Mergers and Acquisitions
By: Malcolm Baker, Xin Pan and Jeffrey Wurgler
Prior stock price peaks of targets affect several aspects of merger and acquisition activity. Offer prices are biased toward recent peak prices although they are economically unremarkable. An offer's probability of acceptance jumps discontinuously when it exceeds a...
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Baker, Malcolm, Xin Pan, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Reference Point Prices on Mergers and Acquisitions." Journal of Financial Economics 106, no. 1 (October 2012): 49–71.
- 2012
- Article
Mutual Fund Trading Pressure: Firm-Level Stock Price Impact and Timing of SEOs
By: Mozaffar N. Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
In tests of the equity market timing theory of external finance, the prior literature has used overvaluation identifiers such as high market-to-book and high prior returns that are likely correlated with other determinants of SEOs. We use price pressure resulting from...
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Keywords:
Equity;
Market Transactions;
Valuation;
Capital Structure;
Market Timing;
Mathematical Methods;
Acquisition
Khan, Mozaffar N., Leonid Kogan, and George Serafeim. "Mutual Fund Trading Pressure: Firm-Level Stock Price Impact and Timing of SEOs." Journal of Finance 67, no. 4 (August 2012): 1371–1395.
- June 2012
- Article
Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on...
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Keywords:
Relationships;
Bonds;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Cash Flow;
Quality;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Profit
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks." Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2, no. 1 (June 2012): 57–87.
- May 2012
- Article
Global, Local, and Contagious Investor Sentiment
By: Malcolm Baker, Jeffrey Wurgler and Yu Yuan
We construct investor sentiment indices for six major stock markets and decompose them into one global and six local indices. In a validation test, we find that relative sentiment is correlated with the relative prices of dual-listed companies. Global sentiment is a...
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Keywords:
Business and Shareholder Relations;
Globalization;
Stocks;
Markets;
Capital;
Financial Services Industry
Baker, Malcolm, Jeffrey Wurgler, and Yu Yuan. "Global, Local, and Contagious Investor Sentiment." Journal of Financial Economics 104, no. 2 (May 2012): 272–287.
- April 2012
- Article
Share Issuance and Factor Timing
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks' returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers...
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Keywords:
Investment Portfolio;
Stock Shares;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Investment Return;
Policy;
Profit
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Share Issuance and Factor Timing." Journal of Finance 67, no. 2 (April 2012): 761–798. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- Article
The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts
We examine the selection and performance of stocks recommended by analysts at a large investment firm relative to those of sell-side analysts during the period mid-1997 and 2004. The buy-side firm's analysts issued less optimistic recommendations for stocks with larger...
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Keywords:
Buy-side Analysts;
Sell-side Analysts;
Stock Recommendations;
Recommendation Optimism;
Recommendation Performance;
Investment Recommendations;
Conflicts Of Interest;
Financial Markets;
Financial Institutions;
Stocks;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, Georgios Serafeim, Devin Shanthikumar, and Gui Yang. "The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts." Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (March 20, 2012).
- January – March 2012
- Article
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Luis M. Viceira
This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on...
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Keywords:
Bonds;
Volatility;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Interest Rates;
Inflation and Deflation;
Investment Return;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Cash Flow;
Stocks
Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.
- December 2011
- Article
Stock Price Fragility
By: Robin Greenwood and David Thesmar
We investigate the relationship between ownership structure of financial assets and non-fundamental risk. We define an asset to be fragile if it is susceptible to non-fundamental trading shocks. An asset can be fragile because of concentrated ownership or because its...
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Keywords:
Stocks;
Price;
Ownership;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Assets;
System Shocks;
Financial Liquidity;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Investment Return;
Volatility;
Relationships;
United States
Greenwood, Robin, and David Thesmar. "Stock Price Fragility." Journal of Financial Economics 102, no. 3 (December 2011): 471–490.
- November 2011
- Article
Corporate Governance When Founders Are Directors
By: Feng Li and Suraj Srinivasan
We examine CEO compensation, CEO retention policies, and M&A decisions in firms where founders serve as a director with a non-founder CEO (founder-director firms). We find that founder-director firms offer a different mix of incentives to their CEOs than other firms....
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Keywords:
Corporate Governance;
Executive Compensation;
Retention;
Policy;
Motivation and Incentives;
Performance;
Governing and Advisory Boards;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Wages;
United States
Li, Feng, and Suraj Srinivasan. "Corporate Governance When Founders Are Directors." Journal of Financial Economics 102, no. 2 (November 2011): 454–469.
- May 2011
- Article
Institutional Stock Trading on Loan Market Information
By: Victoria Ivashina and Zheng Sun
Over the past decade, one of the most important developments in the corporate loan market has been the increasing participation of institutional investors in lending syndicates. As lenders, institutional investors routinely receive private information about borrowers....
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Ivashina, Victoria, and Zheng Sun. "Institutional Stock Trading on Loan Market Information ." Journal of Financial Economics 100, no. 2 (May 2011): 284–303.
- March 2011
- Article
What Do Dividends Tell Us About Earnings Quality
By: Douglas Skinner and Eugene F. Soltes
Over the past 30 years, there have been significant changes in the distribution of earnings (cross-sectional variation has increased, with increasing left skewness) as well as in corporate payout policy, with many fewer firms paying dividends and the emergence of stock...
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Keywords:
Distribution;
Business Earnings;
Change;
Policy;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Performance Consistency;
Quality
Skinner, Douglas, and Eugene F. Soltes. "What Do Dividends Tell Us About Earnings Quality." Review of Accounting Studies 16, no. 1 (March 2011).
- January – February 2011
- Article
Benchmarks as Limits to Arbitrage: Understanding the Low-Volatility Anomaly
By: Malcolm Baker, Brendan Bradley and Jeffrey Wurgler
Contrary to basic finance principles, high-beta and high-volatility stocks have long underperformed low-beta and low-volatility stocks. This anomaly may be partly explained by the fact that the typical institutional investor's mandate to beat a fixed benchmark...
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Keywords:
Volatility;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Investment Portfolio;
Risk Management;
Performance Expectations
Baker, Malcolm, Brendan Bradley, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Benchmarks as Limits to Arbitrage: Understanding the Low-Volatility Anomaly." Financial Analysts Journal 67, no. 1 (January–February 2011).
- 2010
- Other Unpublished Work
Share Issuance and Factor Timing
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel Hanson
We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Equity;
Stocks;
Stock Shares;
Investment Return;
Investment Portfolio;
Price;
Performance Evaluation
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel Hanson. "Share Issuance and Factor Timing." December 2010. (Appendix. Previously titled "Characteristic Timing," NBER Working Paper Series, No. 15948.)
- 2010
- Working Paper
Decoding Inside Information
By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski
Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trades. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms....
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Stocks;
Financial Markets;
Investment;
Investment Return;
Investment Portfolio;
Market Transactions
Cohen, Lauren, Christopher Malloy, and Lukasz Pomorski. "Decoding Inside Information." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 16454, October 2010. (Winner of Institute for Quantitative Investment Research (INQUIRE) Grant presented by Institute for Quantitative Investment Research. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance.)