Publications

October 2018
Article

The Operational Value of Social Media Information

By: Ruomeng Cui, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno and Dennis J. Zhang

While the value of using social media information has been established in multiple business contexts, the field of operations and supply chain management have not yet explored the possibilities it offers in improving firms' operational decisions. This study attempts to... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Information; Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Social Media

Article

Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates

By: J. Peter Scoblic

Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward... View Details

Keywords: National Security; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; History

February 2010
Supplement

Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis (CW)

By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery

This Excel worksheet contains sample problems, prebuilt Excel models to run market sizing and market share analyses, and charts and graphs which help visualize the results. It is designed to accompany Marketing Analysis Tookit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis.... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Marketing Strategy; Decisions; Strategic Planning; Market Participation; Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques

12 Oct 1999
Research & Ideas

Rapid Response: Inside the Retailing Revolution

knowledge of what sells and what doesn't, flexible manufacturing capabilities that can respond appropriately to demand, lean rather than fat and costly inventories, and the rapid replenishment of stock. "The old way was to gear planning and production decisions to... View Details

Keywords: by James E. Aisner; Apparel & Accessories; Fashion; Consumer Products; Manufacturing; Retail

Research Summary

Mobile web advertising: maximum entropy banner allocation

The worldwide mobile advertising market, currently $3 billion in size, is expected to grow to $20 billion by 2011. Online and mobile advertising employs two main pricing models: pay-per-click (CPC) and pay-per-impression (CPM). To date, most of the... View Details

24 Oct 2006
First Look

First Look: October 24, 2006

Working PapersManaging Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning Authors:Rogelio Oliva and Noel Watson Abstract To date, little research has been done on managing the... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Article

Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low... View Details

Keywords: Business Earnings; Price; Investment; Shipping Industry

September 2011
Article

Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas

By: Edward J. Riedl and George Serafeim

Using a sample of U.S. financial institutions, we exploit recent mandatory disclosures of financial instruments designated as fair value level 1, 2, and 3 to test whether greater information risk in financial instrument fair values leads to higher cost of capital. We... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Assets; Cost of Capital; Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Corporate Disclosure; Information; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; United States

SSRN

Research Summary

Current Research

I am interested in research on various topics in retail operations and supply chain management, including inventory management, product variety, distribution logistics, financial performance of retailers, and linking operational performance to... View Details

06 Oct 2008
Research & Ideas

Updating a Classic: Writing a Great Business Plan

uncertainty in the market, investors become quite risk averse. They will only back proven entrepreneurs with truly compelling ideas. People make the numbers, not conversely. So, I still think the people making the forecasts are more... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

07 Oct 2024
Research & Ideas

Election 2024: Why Demographics Won't Predict the Next President

Pundits love a political horse race, parsing the latest polls to predict who might win an election. And in the final runup to the US presidential contest, these forecasts can influence markets and shape public opinion and policies. But as... View Details

Keywords: by Jay Fitzgerald

11 Jan 2007
Working Paper Summaries

A Perceptions Framework for Categorizing Inventory Policies in Single-stage Inventory Systems

Keywords: by Noel Watson

August 2021
Supplement

Coats: Supply Chain Challenges: Spreadsheet Supplement

By: Willy C. Shih

Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour... View Details

Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chain; Inventory; Supply Chain Management; Operations; Growth and Development Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Consolidation; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia

April 2017
Article

Financing Risk and Innovation

By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf

We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Financing and Loans; Innovation and Invention

2014
Working Paper

Financing Risk and Innovation

By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf

We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Venture Capital; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Investment; Price Bubble; Innovation and Invention; Technological Innovation; Risk and Uncertainty

12 Jul 2016
First Look

July 12, 2016

Calibrating the model to data from the Financial Accounts of the U.S., the optimal capital requirement is around 20%. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=51305 Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

12 Mar 2024
HBS Case

How Used Products Can Unlock New Markets: Lessons from Apple's Refurbished iPhones

Some of Apple’s most loyal customers think nothing of upgrading to the latest iPhone every time one comes out. But what about consumers who can’t splurge on a $1,000 iPhone 15 Pro? And what about the electronic waste that would accrue if people threw away functional... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Electronics; Information Technology

May 2021 (Revised July 2021)
Case

Coats: Supply Chain Challenges

By: Willy C. Shih and Adina Wong

Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour... View Details

Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chains; Digital; Operations; Supply Chain Management; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia

Educators

January 2011
Case

The Risk-Reward Framework at Morgan Stanley Research

By: Suraj Srinivasan and David Lane

The case describes the Risk-Reward framework that Morgan Stanley analysts use as a systematic approach to communicate a broader range of fundamental insights about a company rather than the traditional single point estimates. The goal of the framework is to focus the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Risk Management; Business Processes; Research; Valuation

Educators