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      • Faculty Publications  (148)

      Decision TheoryRemove Decision Theory →

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      • Article

      On Derivatives Markets and Social Welfare: A Theory of Empty Voting and Hidden Ownership

      By: Jordan M. Barry, John William Hatfield and Scott Duke Kominers
      In the past twenty-five years, derivatives markets have grown exponentially. Large, modern derivatives markets increasingly enable investors to hold economic interests in corporations without owning voting rights, and vice versa. This leads to both empty... View Details
      Keywords: Voting; Corporate Disclosure; Financial Markets; Ownership
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      Barry, Jordan M., John William Hatfield, and Scott Duke Kominers. "On Derivatives Markets and Social Welfare: A Theory of Empty Voting and Hidden Ownership." Virginia Law Review 99, no. 6 (October 2013): 1103–1168.
      • Article

      Assent-maximizing Social Choice

      By: Katherine A. Baldiga and Jerry R. Green
      We take a decision theoretic approach to the classic social choice problem, using data on the frequency of choice problems to compute social choice functions. We define a family of social choice rules that depend on the population's preferences and on the probability... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Theory; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods; Society
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      Baldiga, Katherine A., and Jerry R. Green. "Assent-maximizing Social Choice." Social Choice and Welfare 40, no. 2 (February 2013): 439–460.
      • November 2012
      • Article

      The Organization of Firms Across Countries

      By: Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
      We argue that social capital as proxied by trust increases aggregate productivity by affecting the organization of firms. To do this we collect new data on the decentralization of investment, hiring, production, and sales decisions from Corporate Headquarters to local... View Details
      Keywords: Decentralization; Social Capital; Theory Of The Firm; Firm Objectives, Organization, And Behavior; Business Economics; Management Of Technological Innovation And R&D; Technological Change: Choices And Consequences; Diffusion Processes; Organizational Structure; Performance Productivity; Trust; Technology Adoption; Multinational Firms and Management
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      Bloom, Nicholas, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "The Organization of Firms Across Countries." Quarterly Journal of Economics 127, no. 4 (November 2012). (Slides from 2008, Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-005, August 2011.)
      • Article

      Employee Selection as a Control System

      By: Dennis Campbell
      Theories from the economics, management control, and organizational behavior literatures predict that when it is difficult to align incentives by contracting on output, aligning preferences via employee selection may provide a useful alternative. This study... View Details
      Keywords: Management Systems; Governance Controls; Employees; Selection and Staffing; Motivation and Incentives; Decision Making; Business Model
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      Campbell, Dennis. "Employee Selection as a Control System." Journal of Accounting Research 50, no. 4 (September 2012): 931–966.
      • June 2012 (Revised December 2017)
      • Technical Note

      Strategy and Strategic Decisions

      By: Eric Van den Steen
      This note introduces a framework for formulating strategy that helps a manager identify which decisions are strategic—and thus which decisions to focus on (both when developing strategy and when executing it)—and that provides a practical test for whether a particular... View Details
      Keywords: Formulating Strategy; Strategic Theory; Strategy Test; Strategic Analysis; Strategy; Theory; Strategic Planning
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      Van den Steen, Eric. "Strategy and Strategic Decisions." Harvard Business School Technical Note 712-500, June 2012. (Revised December 2017.)
      • 2012
      • Working Paper

      ~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation

      By: Matthew Weinzierl
      Tagging is a free lunch in conventional optimal tax theory because it eases the classic tradeoff between efficiency and equality. But tagging is used in only limited ways in tax policy. I propose one explanation: conventional optimal tax theory has yet to capture the... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Framework; Policy; Taxation; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Efficiency; United States
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      Weinzierl, Matthew. "~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-064, January 2012. (Revised August 2012. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18045, August 2012)
      • 2012
      • Chapter

      Institutional Pressures and Organizational Characteristics: Implications for Environmental Strategy

      By: Magali A. Delmas and Michael W. Toffel
      A broad literature has emerged over the past decades demonstrating that firms' environmental strategies and practices are influenced by stakeholders and institutional pressures. Such findings are consistent with institutional sociology, which emphasizes the importance... View Details
      Keywords: Management Practices and Processes; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Natural Environment; Business Strategy
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      Delmas, Magali A., and Michael W. Toffel. "Institutional Pressures and Organizational Characteristics: Implications for Environmental Strategy." In The Oxford Handbook of Business and the Natural Environment, edited by Pratima Bansal and Andrew J. Hoffman. Oxford University Press, 2012.
      • 2011
      • Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction

      By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth
      Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness
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      Ert, Eyal, Ido Erev, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 2, no. 3 (September 2011): 257–276.
      • January 2011
      • Article

      Let the Right One In: A Microeconomic Approach to Partner Choice in Mutualisms

      By: Marco Archetti, Francisco Ubeda, Drew Fudenberg, Jerry R. Green, Naomi E. Pierce and Douglas W. Yu
      One of the main problems impeding the evolution of cooperation is partner choice. When information is asymmetric (the quality of a potential partner is known only to himself), it may seem that partner choice is not possible without signaling. Many mutualisms, however,... View Details
      Keywords: Microeconomics; Strategy; Partners and Partnerships; System; Problems and Challenges; Information; Economics; Theory; Cost; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cooperation
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      Archetti, Marco, Francisco Ubeda, Drew Fudenberg, Jerry R. Green, Naomi E. Pierce, and Douglas W. Yu. "Let the Right One In: A Microeconomic Approach to Partner Choice in Mutualisms." American Naturalist 177, no. 1 (January 2011).
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Conveniently Upset: Avoiding Altruism by Distorting Beliefs about Others

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
      In this paper we present the results from a "corruption game" (a dictator game modified so that the second player can accept a side payment that reduces the overall size of the pie). Dictators (silently) treated to have the possibility of taking a larger proportion of... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Fairness; Values and Beliefs; Game Theory; Personal Characteristics
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Conveniently Upset: Avoiding Altruism by Distorting Beliefs about Others." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 16645, December 2010.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

      By: Eric Van den Steen
      This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
      • October 2010
      • Article

      Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity

      By: Eric Van den Steen
      This paper develops an economic theory of the costs and benefits of corporate culture-in the sense of shared beliefs and values in order to study the effects of "culture clash" in mergers and acquisitions. I first use a simple analytical framework to show that shared... View Details
      Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Organizational Culture; Economics; Information Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Mergers and Acquisitions; Framework; Satisfaction; Motivation and Incentives; Power and Influence; Communication
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      Van den Steen, Eric. "Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity." Management Science 56, no. 10 (October 2010): 1718–1738.
      • September 2010
      • Article

      How Firms Respond to Being Rated

      By: Aaron K. Chatterji and Michael W. Toffel
      While many rating systems seek to help buyers overcome information asymmetries when making purchasing decisions, we investigate how these ratings also influence the companies being rated. We hypothesize that ratings are particularly likely to spur responses from firms... View Details
      Keywords: System; Information; Decisions; Cost; Opportunities; Performance; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Economics; Theory; System Shocks; Rank and Position
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      Chatterji, Aaron K., and Michael W. Toffel. "How Firms Respond to Being Rated." Strategic Management Journal 31, no. 9 (September 2010): 917–945. (Lead article.)
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Employee Selection as a Control System

      By: Dennis Campbell
      Theories from the economics, management control, and organizational behavior literatures predict that when it is difficult to align incentives by contracting on output, aligning preferences via employee selection may provide a useful alternative. This study... View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Decision Making; Governance Controls; Employees; Selection and Staffing; Management Systems; Financial Services Industry
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      Campbell, Dennis. "Employee Selection as a Control System." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-021, August 2010. (Revised September 2010, April 2012.)
      • June 2010
      • Article

      A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
      We argue that time-series variation in the maturity of aggregate corporate debt issues arises because firms behave as macro liquidity providers, absorbing the large supply shocks associated with changes in the maturity structure of government debt. We document that... View Details
      Keywords: Business Ventures; Decision Choices and Conditions; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Liquidity; Investment Return; Government and Politics
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Jeremy C. Stein. "A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice." Journal of Finance 65, no. 3 (June 2010): 993–1028. (Supplementary results in Internet Appendix.)
      • May 2010
      • Article

      Does Product Market Competition Lead Firms to Decentralize?

      By: Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
      There is a widespread sense that over the last two decades firms have been decentralizing decisions to employees further down the managerial hierarchy. Economists have developed a range of theories to account for delegation, but there is less empirical evidence,... View Details
      Keywords: Product; Markets; Competition; Business Ventures; Geographic Location; Employees; Research; Programs; Decisions
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      Bloom, Nicholas, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Does Product Market Competition Lead Firms to Decentralize?" American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 100, no. 2 (May 2010): 434–438.
      • March 2010
      • Article

      I'll Have the Ice Cream Soon and the Vegetables Later: A Study of Online Grocery Purchases and Order Lead Time

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max Bazerman
      How do decisions made for tomorrow or two days in the future differ from decisions made for several days in the future? We use data from an online grocer to address this question. In general, we find that as the delay between order completion and delivery increases,... View Details
      Keywords: Time Management; Service Delivery; Internet and the Web; Decisions; Customers; Retail Industry
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Todd Rogers, and Max Bazerman. "I'll Have the Ice Cream Soon and the Vegetables Later: A Study of Online Grocery Purchases and Order Lead Time." Marketing Letters 21, no. 1 (March 2010): 17–35.
      • Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

      By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth
      A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details
      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition
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      Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 1, no. 2 (June 2010): 117–136.
      • January 2010
      • Journal Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description

      By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere
      Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details
      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition
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      Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West, and Christian Lebiere. "A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description." Special Issue on Decisions from Experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23, no. 1 (January 2010).
      • 2010
      • Chapter

      A Contingency Theory of Leadership

      By: Jay W. Lorsch
      The idea of a contingency theory of leadership is not novel. In the 1960s several scholars conducted research and proposed such an approach arguing that the style of leadership that would be most effective depended upon the situation (Fiedler, Tannenbaum and Schmidt,... View Details
      Keywords: Leadership Style; Situation or Environment; Behavior; Theory
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      Lorsch, Jay W. "A Contingency Theory of Leadership." Chap. 15 in Handbook of Leadership Theory and Practice, edited by Nitin Nohria and Rakesh Khurana. Harvard Business Press, 2010.
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