Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(2,894)
- Faculty Publications (959)
- June 2005
- Article
Inflation, Openness, and Exchange Rate Regimes: The Quest for Short-Term Commitment
By: Laura Alfaro
This paper further tests Romer's (1993) extension of Kydland and Prescott's (1977) predictions for dynamic-inconsistency problems in open economies. In a panel data set of developed and developing countries from 1973 to 1998, I find that openness does not play a role... View Details
- May 2005
- Exercise
Forecasting the Adoption of E-books
By: Elie Ofek
Gives students an opportunity to understand the challenges inherent in forecasting the diffusions of innovations. Provides data for forecasting the adoption of electronic books. Students are encouraged to use the Bass Model framework, while being cognizant of its... View Details
- April 2005
- Case
Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David Kiron
Merrill Lynch (ML) is at a crossroads. Stan O'Neal became its CEO and implemented a radical cost-cutting program. In addition, the company dot-com continues to recover from the fallout from the Enron and dot-com scandals. What are the future prospects for ML? Can the... View Details
- 2005
- Working Paper
Aggregate Corporate Liquidity and Stock Returns
By: Robin Greenwood
Aggregate investment in cash and liquid assets as a share of total corporate investment is negatively related to subsequent U.S. stock market returns between 1947 and 2003. The share of cash in total investment is a more stable predictor of returns than scaled price... View Details
- 2005
- Working Paper
Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details
- March 2005
- Case
Henkel Iberica (A)
By: Francisco de Asis Martinez-Jerez, V.G. Narayanan and Lisa Brem
In 2002, Esteban Garriga, customer service director at Henkel Iberica, questions whether Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) would help manage retail promotions and limit their impact on the stock-outs and obsolete inventory. Describes the... View Details
- March 2005
- Article
Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage
By: Robin Greenwood
I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details
- February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
- Background Note
Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product
By: Elie Ofek
Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite... View Details
- 2005
- Working Paper
Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements
By: Malcolm Baker, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter and Jeffrey Wurgler
We consider measures of stock-picking skill of mutual fund managers based on the earnings announcement returns of the stocks that they hold and trade. Relative to standard approaches, this approach focuses on an especially informative subset of the returns data,... View Details
- January 2005 (Revised October 2005)
- Background Note
Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process
By: Rawi E. Abdelal and Christopher Bruner
Describes Standard & Poor's sovereign credit ratings scales and the credit rating process. In particular, describes the role and function of the rating committee and the analytical categories considered in arriving at a final sovereign credit rating. View Details
- 2005
- Article
Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises
By: M. Bazerman and M. Watkins
- 2005
- Working Paper
Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details
- November 2004
- Article
Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker
By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
In the many years since their introduction, positive theories of inflation have rarely been tested. This paper documents a negative relationship between inflation and the welfare state (proxied by the parameters of the unemployment benefit program) that is to be... View Details
- fall 2004
- Article
Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)
By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins
- September 2004 (Revised February 2007)
- Case
Hedging Currency Risks at AIFS
By: Mihir A. Desai, Vincent Dessain and Anders Sjoman
The American Institute for Foreign Studies (AIFS) organizes study abroad programs and cultural exchanges for American students. The firm's revenues are mainly in U.S. dollars, but most of its costs are in eurodollars and British pounds. The company's controllers review... View Details
- September 2004
- Article
Capital Controls: A Political Economy Approach
By: Laura Alfaro
This paper examines the economic consequences of political conflicts that arise when countries implement capital controls. In an overlapping-generations model, agents vote on whether to open or close an economy to capital flows. The young (workers) receive income from... View Details
- September 2004
- Article
Decomposing the Persistence of International Equity Flows
By: Kenneth A. Froot and J. Tjornhom Donohue
- September 2004
- Article
Trust in Agency
Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the... View Details
- June 2004
- Article
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity-such as lower bid-ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover-predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details