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- Faculty Publications (959)
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- All HBS Web
(2,894)
- Faculty Publications (959)
- Article
Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy
Cohen, Lauren, Karl B. Diether, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns." Journal of Investment Management 7, no. 1 (First Quarter 2009): 36–52.
- 2009
- Article
The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting
By: Walter Friedman
Friedman, Walter. "The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting." History of Political Economy 41, no. 1 (2009).
- December 2008
- Article
Style Investing and Institutional Investors
By: Kenneth A. Froot and Melvyn Teo
This paper explores institutional investors' trades in stocks grouped by style and the relationship of these trades with equity market returns. It aggregates transactions drawn from a large universe of approximately $6 trillion of institutional funds. To analyze style... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Financial Services Industry
Froot, Kenneth A., and Melvyn Teo. "Style Investing and Institutional Investors." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 43, no. 4 (December 2008): 883–906. (Revised from: Equity Style Returns and Institutional Investor Flows, Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 04-048, June 2004.)
- November 2008
- Journal Article
Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Yang Gui
Since 1949 Lehman Brothers has used an investment committee to select the top ten recommendations made by its analysts each year. We examine the performance of this committee's recommendations and find that on average its selections generated abnormal returns of 2.7%... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Performance Expectations; Groups and Teams; Research; Value Creation
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Yang Gui. "Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations." Journal of Financial Transformation 24 (November 2008): 123–130.
- September 2008 (Revised June 2011)
- Case
Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents
By: Elie Ofek
Marketers are often tasked with exploring the factors that impact the long-run adoption of a new product or technology. The new product under consideration here is the drug-eluting stent: a device which props open a clogged artery to the heart and then releases... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Product Positioning; Consumer Behavior; Adoption; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
Ofek, Elie. "Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents." Harvard Business School Case 509-028, September 2008. (Revised June 2011.)
- September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
- Exercise
Exercise on Estimation
By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville
This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident. View Details
Riis, Jason, and John T. Gourville. "Exercise on Estimation." Harvard Business School Exercise 509-022, September 2008. (Revised September 2010.)
- August 2008
- Article
Economic Links and Predictable Returns
By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini
This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating... View Details
Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
Cohen, Lauren, and Andrea Frazzini. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns." Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (August 2008). (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2008. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of BSI Gamma Foundation Research Grant presented by BSI Gamma Foundation.)
- July – August 2008
- Article
Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Craig James Chapman
We compare the earnings forecast performance of analysts at a large buy-side firm to that of sell-side analysts. Our tests show that the buy-side firm analysts make more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. These performance... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Craig James Chapman. "Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts ." Financial Analysts Journal 64, no. 4 (July–August 2008): 25 – 39.
- July–August 2008
- Article
Interview with a Quality Leader: Regina E. Herzlinger on Consumer-Driven Healthcare
Regina E. Herzlinger is the Nancy R. McPherson Professor of Business Administration Chair at the Harvard Business School, Cambridge, MA. She received her bachelor's degree from MIT and her doctorate from the Harvard Business School The first woman to be tenured and... View Details
"Interview with a Quality Leader: Regina E. Herzlinger on Consumer-Driven Healthcare." Journal for Healthcare Quality 30, no. 4 (July–August 2008): 17–19.
- April 2008
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)." Harvard Business School Case 508-103, April 2008.
- 2008
- Mimeo
Do Hedge Funds Profit from Mutual-Fund Distress?
By: Joseph Chen, Samuel G. Hanson, Harrison Hong and Jeremy C. Stein
This paper explores the question of whether hedge funds engage in frontrunning strategies that exploit the predictable trades of others. One potential opportunity for front-running arises when distressed mutual funds—those suffering large outflows of assets under... View Details
Keywords: Investment Funds; Profit; Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Opportunities; Asset Management; Sales
Chen, Joseph, Samuel G. Hanson, Harrison Hong, and Jeremy C. Stein. "Do Hedge Funds Profit from Mutual-Fund Distress?" 2008. Mimeo.
- 2008
- Book
Predictable Surprises
By: Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins
Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior
Bazerman, Max, and Michael D. Watkins. Predictable Surprises. Paperback ed. Harvard Business School Press, 2008.
- March 2008
- Case
Cambrian House
By: Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani and Andrew P. McAfee
Cambrian House builds internet-based products and services by relying entirely on its user community for all aspects of its innovation and new product development process. Users suggest ideas for new products and services and also participate in a monthly voting... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Voting; Technological Innovation; Knowledge Management; Marketing Strategy; Open Source Distribution; Product Development; Strategic Planning; Business and Community Relations; Internet
Coles, Peter A., Karim R. Lakhani, and Andrew P. McAfee. "Cambrian House." Harvard Business School Case 608-016, March 2008.
- 2008
- Working Paper
Exploring the Duality between Product and Organizational Architectures: A Test of the Mirroring Hypothesis
By: Alan D. MacCormack, John Rusnak and Carliss Y. Baldwin
A variety of academic studies argue that a relationship exists between the structure of an organization and the design of the products that this organization produces. Specifically, products tend to "mirror" the architectures of the organizations in which they are... View Details
Keywords: Open Source Distribution; Product Design; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Performance Effectiveness; Information Technology Industry
MacCormack, Alan D., John Rusnak, and Carliss Y. Baldwin. "Exploring the Duality between Product and Organizational Architectures: A Test of the Mirroring Hypothesis." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-039, March 2008. (Revised October 2008, January 2011.)
- March 2008 (Revised August 2008)
- Supplement
Medtronic Vision 2010 (CW)
By: Lynda M. Applegate and James Zeitler
- 2008
- Working Paper
Consumer Demand for Prize-Linked Savings: A Preliminary Analysis
By: P. Tufano, Nick Maynard and Jan-Emmanuel De Neve
This paper reports on a small-scale survey of the potential American demand for prize-linked savings accounts, an account that awards prizes as part of the saving product's return. In October 2006, Centra Credit Union launched a prize-linked savings pilot. As part of... View Details
Keywords: Saving; Income; Consumer Behavior; Personal Finance; Investment Return; Banks and Banking; Clarksville
Tufano, P., Nick Maynard, and Jan-Emmanuel De Neve. "Consumer Demand for Prize-Linked Savings: A Preliminary Analysis." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-061, February 2008.
- January 2008
- Background Note
Equity Options
By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford
The goal of this simulation is to understand the reliance of option values on volatility. When an investor trades an option, they are essentially trading volatility. Therefore, much of the focus in this lesson is on forecasting volatility. Students are able to use two... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Stock Options; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Value
Coval, Joshua, and Erik Stafford. "Equity Options." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-118, January 2008.
- January 2008
- Background Note
Index Options
By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford
The goal of this simulation is to understand the patterns in index option prices that are not predicted by the Black-Scholes model. In particular, the simulation focuses on two properties of options prices. First, at-the-money implied volatilities from index options... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Stock Options; Investment; Price; Profit; Risk Management; Mathematical Methods
Coval, Joshua, and Erik Stafford. "Index Options." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-119, January 2008.
- January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
- Case
Forecasting the Great Depression
What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details
Keywords: History; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis
Friedman, Walter A. "Forecasting the Great Depression." Harvard Business School Case 708-046, January 2008. (Revised July 2009.)
- 2008
- Working Paper
Catering through Nominal Share Prices
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices. The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuation on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels, and vice-versa. Using measures of time-varying catering... View Details
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Catering through Nominal Share Prices." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w13762, January 2008. (First Draft in 2007.)