Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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07 Oct 2014
HBS Seminar

Dylan Minor, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

2024
Working Paper

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer

In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Inflation and Deflation; Personal Finance

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Forthcoming
Article

FinTech Lending and Cashless Payments

By: Pulak Ghosh, Boris Vallée and Yao Zeng

Borrower's use of cashless payments both improves their access to capital from FinTech lenders and predicts a lower probability of default. These relationships are stronger for cashless technologies providing more precise information, and for outflows. Cashless payment... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Lending; Payments; Data Sharing; Financing and Loans; Information Technology; Banks and Banking; Business Model

Article

Learning Models for Actionable Recourse

By: Alexis Ross, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Osbert Bastani

As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as legal and financial decision-making, there has been growing interest in post-hoc methods for generating counterfactual explanations. Such explanations provide individuals adversely... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning Models; Recourse; Algorithm; Mathematical Methods

2003
Chapter

Short-Term America Revisited? Boom and Bust in the Venture Capital Industry and the Impact on Innovation

By: Josh Lerner and Paul A. Gompers

This chapter seeks to understand the implications of the recent decline in venture activity for innovation. It argues that the situation may not be as grim as it initially appears. While there are many reasons for believing that on average venture capital has a... View Details

Keywords: Venture Capital; Innovation and Invention; Business Cycles; Financial Services Industry; United States

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February 2013
Article

Towards an Understanding of the Role of Standard Setters in Standard Setting

By: Abigail M. Allen and Karthik Ramanna

We investigate the effect of standard setters in standard setting: we examine how certain professional and political characteristics of FASB members and SEC commissioners predict the accounting "reliability" and "relevance" of proposed standards. Notably, we find FASB... View Details

Keywords: FASB; Politics; Relevance; Reliability; Standard Setting; Accounting; Standards; Fair Value Accounting; Government and Politics; Personal Characteristics

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January 2010
Article

Clusters of Entrepreneurship

By: Edward L. Glaeser, William R. Kerr and Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto

Employment growth is strongly predicted by smaller average establishment size, both across cities and across industries within cities, but there is little consensus on why this relationship exists. Traditional economic explanations emphasize factors that reduce entry... View Details

Keywords: Economic Growth; Entrepreneurship; Cost; Employment; Market Entry and Exit

May 1992
Supplement

Fabtek (B)

By: Rowland T. Moriarty Jr. and Benson P. Shapiro

Presents an urgent order for repair service from an important customer who had purchased an item from a competitor. The item, which TiFab had bid on, went out at a price that TiFab predicted was below the amount necessary to ensure quality manufacture. Now the customer... View Details

Keywords: Price; Bids and Bidding; Production; Quality; Competitive Strategy

March 2007
Article

Authority, Risk, and Performance Incentives: Evidence from Division Manager Positions inside Firms

By: Julie Wulf

I show that performance incentives vary by decision-making authority of division managers. For division managers with broader authority, i.e., those designated as corporate officers, both the sensitivity of pay to global performance measures and the relative importance... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Performance; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Model; Globalization; Measurement and Metrics; Status and Position; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Divisions

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2016
Working Paper

Innovating in Science and Engineering or 'Cashing In' on Wall Street? Evidence on Elite STEM Talent

By: Pian Shu

Using data on MIT bachelor's graduates from 1994 to 2012, this paper empirically examines the extent to which the inflow of elite talent into the financial industry affects the supply of innovators in science and engineering (S&E). I first show that finance does not... View Details

Keywords: Higher Education; Engineering; Personal Development and Career; Science; Finance

2009
Article

Modeling Expert Opinions on Food Healthfulness: A Nutrition Metric

By: Jolie M. Martin, John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, Max H. Bazerman and Lisa Sutherland

Research over the last several decades indicates the failure of existing nutritional labels to substantially improve the healthiness of consumers' food and beverage choices. The difficulty for policy-makers is to encapsulate a wide body of scientific knowledge in a... View Details

Keywords: Judgments; Food; Nutrition; Labels; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods

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Program

Behavioral Economics—Virtual

Summary What if you could predict how customers will respond to a product? Or how employees will decide to implement a new initiative? In Behavioral Economics—Virtual, you'll acquire a dynamic framework for interpreting, analyzing, and... View Details

2011
Working Paper

The First Deal: The Division of Founder Equity in New Ventures

By: Thomas F. Hellmann and Noam Wasserman

This paper examines the division of founder shares in entrepreneurial ventures, focusing on the decision of whether or not to divide the shares equally among all founders. To motivate the empirical analysis we develop a simple theory of costly bargaining, where... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Decision Choices and Conditions; Entrepreneurship; Fairness; Equity; Managerial Roles; Negotiation Deal; Ownership Stake; Value

What is Disruptive Innovation?

For the past 20 years, the theory of disruptive innovation has been enormously influential in business circles and a powerful tool for predicting which industry entrants will succeed. Unfortunately, the theory has also been widely misunderstood, and the "disruptive"... View Details

May 2021
Article

Is No News (Perceived as) Bad News? An Experimental Investigation of Information Disclosure

By: Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca and Daniel Martin

This paper uses laboratory experiments to directly test a central prediction of disclosure theory: that strategic forces can lead those who possess private information to voluntarily provide it. In a simple sender-receiver game, we find that senders disclose favorable... View Details

Keywords: Communication Games; Disclosure; Unraveling; Experiments; Information; Product; Quality; Communication; Consumer Behavior

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March 2019 (Revised January 2021)
Module Note

Strategic Interactions

By: Ashish Nanda

This note provides a perspective and some tools to predict and shape interactions with other players when making strategic decisions. As a strategist, you must consider that your firm’s actions evoke reactions from other players in the market and that, reciprocally,... View Details

Keywords: Strategic Interaction; Value Capture; Strategy; Value Creation; Competition; Competitive Strategy; Education Industry

Article

Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy

By: Edward Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers and Michael Luca

The proliferation of big data makes it possible to better target city services like hygiene inspections, but city governments rarely have the in-house talent needed for developing prediction algorithms. Cities could hire consultants, but a cheaper alternative is to... View Details

Keywords: User-generated Content; Operations; Tournaments; Policy-making; Machine Learning; Online Platforms; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; City; Infrastructure; Business Processes; Government and Politics

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December 2014
Article

Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments

By: Jennifer Brown and Dylan B. Minor

We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect—the stronger the expected future... View Details

Keywords: Elimination Tournament; Dynamic Contest; Contest Design; Effort Choice; Betting Markets; Competitive Advantage; Game Theory

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2014
Working Paper

Evolution of Land Distribution in West Bengal 1967-2004: Role of Land Reform and Demographic Changes

By: Pranab Bardhan, Michael Luca, Dilip Mookherjee and Francisco Pino

This paper studies how land reform and population growth affect land inequality and landlessness, focusing particularly on indirect effects owing to their influence on household divisions and land market transactions. Theoretical predictions of a model of household... View Details

Keywords: Inequality; Land Reform; Household Division; Land Markets; Equality and Inequality; Property; West Bengal

2011
Article

The Causal Impact of Media in Financial Markets

By: Christopher Parsons and J. Engelberg

Disentangling the causal impact of media reporting from the impact of the events being reported is challenging. We solve this problem by comparing the behaviors of investors with access to different media coverage of the same information event. We use zip codes to... View Details

Keywords: Media; Financial Markets

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