Predictability - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2005
Working Paper

Aggregate Corporate Liquidity and Stock Returns

By: Robin Greenwood

Aggregate investment in cash and liquid assets as a share of total corporate investment is negatively related to subsequent U.S. stock market returns between 1947 and 2003. The share of cash in total investment is a more stable predictor of returns than scaled price... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Financial Liquidity; Cash; Investment Return; Corporate Finance

25 Jan 2022
News

Baseball’s Next Competitive Advantage Isn’t Analytics. It’s Culture.

30 Oct 2013
HBS Seminar

Ryan McDevitt, Fuqua School of Business at Duke University

Forthcoming
Article

On the Economic Origins of Concerns Over Women’s Chastity

By: Anke Becker

This paper studies the origins and function of customs and norms that intend to keep women from being promiscuous. Using large-scale survey data from more than 100 countries, I test the anthropological theory that a particular form of preindustrial... View Details

Keywords: Infibulation; Female Sexuality; Paternity Uncertainty; Concern About Women's Chastity; Pastoralism; Economic Anthropology; History; Gender; Social Issues; Culture

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July 2024
Case

Jacqueline Cook at Vendasta: Debating an IPO

By: Reza Satchu, Tom Quinn and Andrew Kosc

In May 2021, after a surge in demand for digital services that prompted high valuations for startups across the Canadian tech sector, Saskatchewan-based Vendasta entered the final stages of the initial public offering (IPO) process. COO Jacqueline Cook had invested her... View Details

January 2010 (Revised March 2013)
Case

HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI

By: F. Asis Martinez Jerez, Thomas Steenburgh, Jill Avery and Lisa Brem

HubSpot, a web marketing startup is under pressure from VCs to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. In the case, students explore the drivers of customer churn and uncover opportunities to increase customer retention across the... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Satisfaction; Customer Value and Value Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Happiness; Consulting Industry

October 2009 (Revised January 2010)
Case

The University of Notre Dame Endowment

By: Andre F. Perold and Paul Michael Buser

The Endowment Model of Investing, which was based on creating high risk-adjusted performance through diversification, a long time horizon, top-notch outside managers, and illiquid investments, had served Notre Dame and other large universities well over the past... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Higher Education; Asset Management; Private Equity; Financial Liquidity; Investment; Risk Management; Performance Evaluation; Education Industry; Financial Services Industry

Research Summary

Overview

By: Frank Nagle

Professor Nagle studies how competitors can collaborate on the creation of core technologies, while still competing on the products and services built on top of them. His research falls into the broader categories of the futures of work, the economics of IT, and... View Details

Keywords: Information Technology; Strategy; Technological Innovation; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Economic Growth; Entrepreneurship; Technology; Internet; Mobile Technology; Online Technology; Technology Adoption; Technology Networks

2024
Working Paper

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer

In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Inflation and Deflation; Personal Finance

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Forthcoming
Article

FinTech Lending and Cashless Payments

By: Pulak Ghosh, Boris Vallée and Yao Zeng

Borrower's use of cashless payments both improves their access to capital from FinTech lenders and predicts a lower probability of default. These relationships are stronger for cashless technologies providing more precise information, and for outflows. Cashless payment... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Lending; Payments; Data Sharing; Financing and Loans; Information Technology; Banks and Banking; Business Model

Article

Learning Models for Actionable Recourse

By: Alexis Ross, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Osbert Bastani

As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as legal and financial decision-making, there has been growing interest in post-hoc methods for generating counterfactual explanations. Such explanations provide individuals adversely... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning Models; Recourse; Algorithm; Mathematical Methods

2003
Chapter

Short-Term America Revisited? Boom and Bust in the Venture Capital Industry and the Impact on Innovation

By: Josh Lerner and Paul A. Gompers

This chapter seeks to understand the implications of the recent decline in venture activity for innovation. It argues that the situation may not be as grim as it initially appears. While there are many reasons for believing that on average venture capital has a... View Details

Keywords: Venture Capital; Innovation and Invention; Business Cycles; Financial Services Industry; United States

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February 2013
Article

Towards an Understanding of the Role of Standard Setters in Standard Setting

By: Abigail M. Allen and Karthik Ramanna

We investigate the effect of standard setters in standard setting: we examine how certain professional and political characteristics of FASB members and SEC commissioners predict the accounting "reliability" and "relevance" of proposed standards. Notably, we find FASB... View Details

Keywords: FASB; Politics; Relevance; Reliability; Standard Setting; Accounting; Standards; Fair Value Accounting; Government and Politics; Personal Characteristics

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January 2010
Article

Clusters of Entrepreneurship

By: Edward L. Glaeser, William R. Kerr and Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto

Employment growth is strongly predicted by smaller average establishment size, both across cities and across industries within cities, but there is little consensus on why this relationship exists. Traditional economic explanations emphasize factors that reduce entry... View Details

Keywords: Economic Growth; Entrepreneurship; Cost; Employment; Market Entry and Exit

May 1992
Supplement

Fabtek (B)

By: Rowland T. Moriarty Jr. and Benson P. Shapiro

Presents an urgent order for repair service from an important customer who had purchased an item from a competitor. The item, which TiFab had bid on, went out at a price that TiFab predicted was below the amount necessary to ensure quality manufacture. Now the customer... View Details

Keywords: Price; Bids and Bidding; Production; Quality; Competitive Strategy

March 2007
Article

Authority, Risk, and Performance Incentives: Evidence from Division Manager Positions inside Firms

By: Julie Wulf

I show that performance incentives vary by decision-making authority of division managers. For division managers with broader authority, i.e., those designated as corporate officers, both the sensitivity of pay to global performance measures and the relative importance... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Performance; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Model; Globalization; Measurement and Metrics; Status and Position; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Divisions

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2011
Working Paper

The First Deal: The Division of Founder Equity in New Ventures

By: Thomas F. Hellmann and Noam Wasserman

This paper examines the division of founder shares in entrepreneurial ventures, focusing on the decision of whether or not to divide the shares equally among all founders. To motivate the empirical analysis we develop a simple theory of costly bargaining, where... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Decision Choices and Conditions; Entrepreneurship; Fairness; Equity; Managerial Roles; Negotiation Deal; Ownership Stake; Value

What is Disruptive Innovation?

For the past 20 years, the theory of disruptive innovation has been enormously influential in business circles and a powerful tool for predicting which industry entrants will succeed. Unfortunately, the theory has also been widely misunderstood, and the "disruptive"... View Details

25 Feb 2019
Research & Ideas

How Gender Stereotypes Kill a Woman’s Self-Confidence

predicting their own abilities, women had much less confidence in their scores on the tests they believed men had an advantage in. “Gender stereotypes determine people’s beliefs about themselves and others,” Coffman says. “If I take a... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

2007
Working Paper

Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals

By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman

We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the... View Details

Keywords: Internet and the Web; Decision Choices and Conditions; Attitudes; Conflict and Resolution; Emotions; Film Entertainment; Cognition and Thinking; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

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