Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2023
Working Paper

Contagious Anomalies

By: Angela Ma and Miles Zheng

This paper shows that anomaly strategy contagion contributes a key component of risks induced by arbitrageur trading. We present three main findings: (1) Contagion deteriorates the market liquidity of the contaminated strategy. (2) Increased contagion risk predicts... View Details

Keywords: Contagion; Anomalies; Non-bank Intermediaries; Arbitrage; Intermediary Asset Pricing

January 2018 (Revised March 2019)
Case

Autonomous Vehicles: The Rubber Hits the Road...but When?

By: William Kerr, Allison Ciechanover, Jeff Huizinga and James Palano

The rise of autonomous vehicles has enormous implications for business and society. Despite the many headlines and significant investment in the technology by early 2019, it was still unclear when truly autonomous vehicles would be a commercial reality. Students will... View Details

Keywords: Technology Management; Artificial Intelligence; General Management; Robotics; Technological Innovation; Transportation; Disruption; Information Technology; Decision Making; AI and Machine Learning; Auto Industry; Technology Industry

August 2017
Article

The First Deal: The Division of Founder Equity in New Ventures

By: Thomas F. Hellmann and Noam Wasserman

We examine the trade-off between efficiency and equality within the context of entrepreneurial founding teams. Using a formal theory where founders may have preferences over relative outcomes, we derive predictions about the antecedents and consequences of dividing... View Details

Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Entrepreneurship; Equity

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2013
Working Paper

Networks as Covers: Evidence from an On-Line Social Network

By: Mikolaj Jan Piskorski

This paper proposes that networks give actors a cover by giving them the excuse of sociability to engage in normatively prohibited market behaviors. I apply this hypothesis to actors in long-term exclusive relationships who are surreptitiously seeking new relationships... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Behavior; Ethics; Relationships; Social and Collaborative Networks

16 Sep 2014
News

Use Data to Fix the Small Business Lending Gap

04 Jun 2013
News

Can Good Financial Behavior Be Taught In High School?

July 2024
Case

Jacqueline Cook at Vendasta: Debating an IPO

By: Reza Satchu, Tom Quinn and Andrew Kosc

In May 2021, after a surge in demand for digital services that prompted high valuations for startups across the Canadian tech sector, Saskatchewan-based Vendasta entered the final stages of the initial public offering (IPO) process. COO Jacqueline Cook had invested her... View Details

Article

Big Names or Big Ideas: Do Peer-Review Panels Select the Best Science Proposals?

By: Danielle Li and Leila Agha

This paper examines the success of peer-review panels in predicting the future quality of proposed research. We construct new data to track publication, citation, and patenting outcomes associated with more than 130,000 research project (R01) grants funded by the U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Patents; Research; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Business and Government Relations; United States

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Forthcoming
Article

On the Economic Origins of Concerns Over Women’s Chastity

By: Anke Becker

This paper studies the origins and function of customs and norms that intend to keep women from being promiscuous. Using large-scale survey data from more than 100 countries, I test the anthropological theory that a particular form of preindustrial... View Details

Keywords: Infibulation; Female Sexuality; Paternity Uncertainty; Concern About Women's Chastity; Pastoralism; Economic Anthropology; History; Gender; Social Issues; Culture

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January 2010 (Revised March 2013)
Case

HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI

By: F. Asis Martinez Jerez, Thomas Steenburgh, Jill Avery and Lisa Brem

HubSpot, a web marketing startup is under pressure from VCs to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. In the case, students explore the drivers of customer churn and uncover opportunities to increase customer retention across the... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Satisfaction; Customer Value and Value Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Happiness; Consulting Industry

Research Summary

Overview

By: Kris Johnson Ferreira

Professor Ferreira's research primarily focuses on how retailers can use algorithms to make better revenue management decisions, including pricing, product display, and assortment planning. In the retail industry, anticipating consumer demand is arguably one of the... View Details

Keywords: E-commerce; Analytics; Revenue Management; Pricing; Assortment Planning; Field Experiments; Operations; Supply Chain; Supply Chain Management; Retail Industry

October 2009 (Revised January 2010)
Case

The University of Notre Dame Endowment

By: Andre F. Perold and Paul Michael Buser

The Endowment Model of Investing, which was based on creating high risk-adjusted performance through diversification, a long time horizon, top-notch outside managers, and illiquid investments, had served Notre Dame and other large universities well over the past... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Higher Education; Asset Management; Private Equity; Financial Liquidity; Investment; Risk Management; Performance Evaluation; Education Industry; Financial Services Industry

March 2007
Article

Authority, Risk, and Performance Incentives: Evidence from Division Manager Positions inside Firms

By: Julie Wulf

I show that performance incentives vary by decision-making authority of division managers. For division managers with broader authority, i.e., those designated as corporate officers, both the sensitivity of pay to global performance measures and the relative importance... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Performance; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Model; Globalization; Measurement and Metrics; Status and Position; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Divisions

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2011
Working Paper

The First Deal: The Division of Founder Equity in New Ventures

By: Thomas F. Hellmann and Noam Wasserman

This paper examines the division of founder shares in entrepreneurial ventures, focusing on the decision of whether or not to divide the shares equally among all founders. To motivate the empirical analysis we develop a simple theory of costly bargaining, where... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Decision Choices and Conditions; Entrepreneurship; Fairness; Equity; Managerial Roles; Negotiation Deal; Ownership Stake; Value

What is Disruptive Innovation?

For the past 20 years, the theory of disruptive innovation has been enormously influential in business circles and a powerful tool for predicting which industry entrants will succeed. Unfortunately, the theory has also been widely misunderstood, and the "disruptive"... View Details

06 Dec 2012
HBS Seminar

Ron Burt, University of Chicago

2007
Working Paper

Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals

By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman

We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the... View Details

Keywords: Internet and the Web; Decision Choices and Conditions; Attitudes; Conflict and Resolution; Emotions; Film Entertainment; Cognition and Thinking; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

March–April 2015
Article

Why We Think We Can't Dance: Theory of Mind and Children's Desire to Perform

By: Lan Nguyen Chaplin and Michael I. Norton

Theory of Mind (ToM) allows children to achieve success in the social world by understanding others' minds. A study with 3–12 year olds, however, demonstrates that gains in ToM are linked to decreases in children's desire to engage in performative behaviors associated... View Details

Keywords: Theory Of Mind; Self-Esteem; Behavior; Attitudes; Performance; Cognition and Thinking

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January 2013
Article

Payout Taxes and the Allocation of Investment

When corporate payout is taxed, internal equity (retained earnings) is cheaper than external equity (share issues). If there are no perfect substitutes for equity finance, payout taxes may therefore have an effect on the investment of firms. High taxes will favor... View Details

Keywords: Taxation; Investment; Equity; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation

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2001
Working Paper

The Malleability of Environmentalism

By: Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni, Min Li, Leigh L. Thompson and M. Bazerman

In this paper, we predict and find that self-perceptions of environmentalism are changed by subtle manipulations of context and, in turn, affect environmental behavior. In Study 1, we found that people exhibit greater positive assessments of their environmental... View Details

Keywords: Perspective; Behavior; Identity; Environmental Sustainability

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