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Show Results For
-
All HBS Web
(778)
- News (158)
- Research (541)
- Events (1)
- Multimedia (1)
- Faculty Publications (209)
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- Spring 2017
- Comment
Commentary on Implied Cost of Equity Capital Estimates as Predictors of Accounting Returns and Stock Returns
Wang, Charles C.Y. "Commentary on Implied Cost of Equity Capital Estimates as Predictors of Accounting Returns and Stock Returns." Journal of Financial Reporting 2, no. 1 (Spring 2017): 95–106.
- 2005
- Working Paper
A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Excess Comovement of Stock Returns
By: Robin Greenwood
Greenwood, Robin. "A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Excess Comovement of Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 05-069, April 2005.
- Article
The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts
We examine the selection and performance of stocks recommended by analysts at a large investment firm relative to those of sell-side analysts during the period mid-1997 and 2004. The buy-side firm's analysts issued less optimistic recommendations for stocks with larger...
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Keywords:
Buy-side Analysts;
Sell-side Analysts;
Stock Recommendations;
Recommendation Optimism;
Recommendation Performance;
Investment Recommendations;
Conflicts Of Interest;
Financial Markets;
Financial Institutions;
Stocks;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, Georgios Serafeim, Devin Shanthikumar, and Gui Yang. "The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts." Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (March 20, 2012).
- February 2011
- Article
Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings
By: Michael B. Clement, Jeffrey Hales and Yanfeng Xue
We investigate analysts' use of stock returns and other analysts' forecast revisions in revising their own forecasts after an earnings announcement. We find that analysts respond more strongly to these signals when the signals are more informative about future earnings...
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Keywords:
Learning;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Performance Evaluation;
Knowledge Use and Leverage;
Financial Services Industry
Clement, Michael B., Jeffrey Hales, and Yanfeng Xue. "Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings." Journal of Accounting & Economics 51, nos. 1-2 (February 2011): 279–299.
- May 2013
- Article
The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts
Prior research on equity analysts focuses almost exclusively on those employed by sell-side investment banks and brokerage houses. Yet investment firms undertake their own buy-side research and their analysts face different stock selection and recommendation incentives...
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Keywords:
Buy-side Analysts;
Sell-side Analysts;
Stock Recommendations;
Recommendation Optimism;
Recommendation Performance;
Investment Recommendations;
Conflicts Of Interest;
Financial Markets;
Financial Institutions;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Groysberg, Boris, Paul Healy, George Serafeim, and Devin Shanthikumar. "The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts." Management Science 59, no. 5 (May 2013): 1062–1075.
- December 2011
- Article
Stock Price Fragility
By: Robin Greenwood and David Thesmar
We investigate the relationship between ownership structure of financial assets and non-fundamental risk. We define an asset to be fragile if it is susceptible to non-fundamental trading shocks. An asset can be fragile because of concentrated ownership or because its...
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Keywords:
Stocks;
Price;
Ownership;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Assets;
System Shocks;
Financial Liquidity;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Investment Return;
Volatility;
Relationships;
United States
Greenwood, Robin, and David Thesmar. "Stock Price Fragility." Journal of Financial Economics 102, no. 3 (December 2011): 471–490.
- 2017
- Working Paper
Rainy Day Stocks
By: Niels Gormsen and Robin Greenwood
We study the good- and bad-times performance of equity portfolios formed on characteristics. Many characteristics associated with good performance during bad times – value, profitability, small size, safety, and total volatility – also perform well during good times....
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Gormsen, Niels, and Robin Greenwood. "Rainy Day Stocks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-066, January 2017.
- 15 Feb 2013
- Working Paper Summaries
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
- 2009
- Working Paper
Stock Price Fragility
By: Robin Greenwood and David Thesmar
We investigate the relationship between ownership structure of financial assets and non-fundamental risk. An asset is fragile if its owners collectively have to buy or sell. Such assets are susceptible to non-fundamental price movements. An asset can be fragile because...
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Keywords:
Financial Liquidity;
Stocks;
Price;
Market Transactions;
Ownership;
Risk and Uncertainty;
United States
Greenwood, Robin, and David Thesmar. "Stock Price Fragility." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-031, October 2009.
- 27 Oct 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Stock Price Fragility
Keywords:
by Robin Greenwood & David Thesmar
- Article
Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by...
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Keywords:
Financial Markets;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Valuation;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Volatility;
Price;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Behavioral Finance
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market." Journal of Economic Perspectives 21, no. 2 (Spring 2007): 129–151.
- 2007
- Other Unpublished Work
Round Numbers and Security Returns
By: Edward Johnson, Nicole Bastian Johnson and Devin M. Shanthikumar
We document consistent differences in daily stock returns related to round numbers. In particular, we examine returns following previous day closing prices that are just above or just below round number benchmarks. We find, for both one-digit, two-digit and three-digit...
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- May 1976
- Article
The Impact on Option Pricing of Specification Error in the Underlying Stock Price Returns
By: Robert C. Merton
Merton, Robert C. "The Impact on Option Pricing of Specification Error in the Underlying Stock Price Returns." Journal of Finance 31, no. 2 (May 1976): 333–350.
- August 2008
- Article
Economic Links and Predictable Returns
By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini
This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating...
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Keywords:
Economics;
Price;
Assets;
Analytics and Data Science;
Customers;
Stocks;
Equity;
Strategy;
Investment Return;
Forecasting and Prediction
Cohen, Lauren, and Andrea Frazzini. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns." Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (August 2008). (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2008. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of BSI Gamma Foundation Research Grant presented by BSI Gamma Foundation.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted...
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Keywords:
Price;
Investment Return;
AI and Machine Learning;
Valuation;
Cash Flow;
Forecasting and Prediction
Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio." Working Paper, November 2023.
- 15 Aug 2012
- Working Paper Summaries
Legislating Stock Prices
- March 2009
- Article
Trading Restrictions and Stock Prices
By: Robin Greenwood
Firms can manipulate their stock price by limiting the ability of their investors to sell. I examine a series of corporate events in Japan in which firms actively reduced their float—the fraction of shares available to trade—for periods of one to three months, locking...
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Greenwood, Robin. "Trading Restrictions and Stock Prices." Review of Financial Studies 22, no. 3 (March 2009): 509–539.
- 19 May 2008
- Research & Ideas
Connecting School Ties and Stock Recommendations
Social networks matter for more than just efficient Internet communication. They're also crucial for the strong performance of stock recommendations by analysts, according to researchers at Harvard Business School and the University of...
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- Research Summary
Explaining Returns With Cash-Flow Proxies (with Tuomo Vuolteenaho)
Stock returns are correlated with contemporaneous earnings growth, dividend growth, future real activity, and other cash-flow proxies. The correlation between cash-flow proxies and stock returns may arise from association of cash-flow proxies with one-period expected...
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