Publications

Roe, Mark J., and Jordan I. Siegel. "Political Instability: Effects on Financial Development, Roots in the Severity of Economic Inequality." Journal of Comparative Economics 39, no. 3 (September 2011): 279–309. (We here bring forward strong evidence that political instability impedes financial development, with its variation a primary determinant of differences in financial development around the world. As such, it needs to be added to the short list of major determinants of financial development. First, structural conditions first postulated by Engerman and Sokoloff (2002) as generating long-term inequality are shown here empirically to be exogenous determinants of political instability. Second, that exogenously-determined political instability in turn holds back financial development, even when we control for factors prominent in the last decade's cross-country studies of financial development. The findings indicate that inequality-perpetuating conditions that result in political instability are fundamental roadblocks for international organizations like the World Bank that seek to promote financial development. The evidence here includes country fixed effect regressions and an instrumental model inspired by Engerman and Sokoloff's (2002) work, which to our knowledge has not yet been used in finance and which is consistent with current tests as valid instruments. Four conventional measures of national political instability — Alesina and Perotti's (1996) well-known index of instability, a subsequent index derived from Banks' (2005) work, and two indices of managerial perceptions of nation-by-nation political instability — persistently predict a wide range of national financial development outcomes for recent decades. Political instability's significance is time consistent in cross-sectional regressions back to the 1960's, the period when the key data becomes available, robust in both country fixed-effects and instrumental variable regressions, and consistent across multiple measures of instability and of financial development. Overall, the results indicate the existence of an important channel running from structural inequality to political instability, principally in nondemocratic settings, and then to financial backwardness. The robust significance of that channel extends existing work demonstrating the importance of political economy explanations for financial development and financial backwardness. It should help to better understand which policies will work for financial development, because political instability has causes, cures, and effects quite distinct from those of many of the key institutions most studied in the past decade as explaining financial backwardness.)

Research Summary

Communication (and Coordination?) in a Modern, Complex Organization

This is a descriptive study of the structure of communications in a modern organization. We analyze a dataset with millions of electronic mail messages, calendar meetings and teleconferences for many thousands of employees of a single, multidivisional firm during a... View Details

2025
Working Paper

Extractive Taxation and the French Revolution

By: Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau and Marco Tabellini

We study the fiscal determinants of the French Revolution, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the salt tax—a large source of royal revenues and one of the most extractive forms of taxation of the Ancien Régime. Implementing a Regression Discontinuity... View Details

Keywords: Extractive Taxation; Regime Change; French Revolution; State Capacity; Taxation; History; Government Administration; Attitudes; Public Opinion

2021
Working Paper

An Empirical Study of Time Allotment and Delays in E-commerce Delivery

By: M. Balakrishnan, MoonSoo Choi and Natalie Epstein

Problem definition: We study how having more time allotted to deliver an order affects the speed of the delivery process. Furthermore, we seek to predict orders that are likely to be delayed early in the delivery process so that actions can be taken to avoid delays.... View Details

Keywords: Logistics; E-commerce; Mathematical Methods; AI and Machine Learning; Performance Productivity

SSRN

February 2022
Article

Sugar-sweetened Beverage Purchases and Intake at Event Arenas with and without a Portion Size Cap

By: Sheri Volger, James Scott Parrott, Brian Elbel, Leslie K. John, Jason P. Block, Pamela Rothpletz-Puglia and Christina A. Roberto

This is the first real-world study to examine the association between a voluntary 16-ounce (oz.) portion-size cap on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) at a sporting arena on volume of SSBs and food calories purchased and consumed during basketball games. Cross-sectional... View Details

Keywords: Sugar-sweetened Beverages; Nutrition Policy; Obesity Prevention; Portion Sizes; Nutrition; Policy; Health; Behavior

March 2022
Article

Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Clinician Ambulatory Electronic Health Record Use

By: A Jay Holmgren, Lance Downing, Mitchell Tang, Christopher Sharp, Christopher Longhurst and Robert S. Huckman

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic changed clinician electronic health record (EHR) work in a multitude of ways. To evaluate how, we measure ambulatory clinician EHR use in the United States throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

Materials and Methods: We use EHR... View Details

Keywords: Health Care; Electronic Health Records; Productivity; COVID-19 Pandemic; Health Care and Treatment; Health Pandemics; Information Technology; Performance Productivity; United States

May 2021
Article

Choice Architecture in Physician–patient Communication: A Mixed-methods Assessment of Physicians' Competency

By: J. Hart, K. Yadav, S. Szymanski, A. Summer, A. Tannenbaum, J. Zlatev, D. Daniels and S.D. Halpern

Background: Clinicians’ use of choice architecture, or how they present options, systematically influences the choices made by patients and their surrogate decision makers. However, clinicians may incompletely understand this influence.... View Details

Keywords: Choice Architecture; Health Care and Treatment; Interpersonal Communication; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competency and Skills

30 Mar 2010
First Look

First Look: March 30

people believe the risk decreases (negative recency) but at the same time exhibit more cautious behavior (positive recency). The rest of the difference is consistent with two well established mechanisms: judgment error and the use of small samples in choice.... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Article

Are All Certified EHRs Created Equal? Assessing the Relationship between EHR Vendor and Hospital Meaningful Use Performance

By: A Jay Holmgren, Julia Adler-Milstein and Jeffrey McCullough

Objective
The federal electronic health record (EHR) certification process was intended to ensure a baseline level of system quality and the ability to support meaningful use criteria. We sought to assess whether there was variation across EHR vendors in the... View Details

Keywords: Hospitals; Electronic Health Records; Digital Health; Health Care and Treatment; Information Technology; Service Delivery; Performance Evaluation