Publications

2018
Working Paper

Trust and Democracy: Leader Turnover during Economic Crises

By: Nathan Nunn, Nancy Qian and Jaya Y. Wen

We study the relationship between interpersonal trust and political stability in democratic countries. Using a six-decade-long annual country-level panel dataset, we find that recessions are more likely to cause political turnover in countries with lower levels of... View Details

Keywords: Interpersonal Trust; Recessions; Leader Turnover; Political Instability; Culture; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Trust; Political Elections

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October 2014
Supplement

Honeywell and the Great Recession: The Economic Recovery (B)

By: Sandra J. Sucher and Susan J. Winterberg

Five years after the Great Recession, Honeywell's CEO Dave Cote and his executive team reflect on the choices they made to manage costs and earnings forecasts during that uncertain time. They discuss which cost cutting measures they decided to take and their personal... View Details

Keywords: Layoffs; Furloughs; Downsizing; Work Sharing; Short Time Work; Recessions; Earnings Forecast; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Cost Management; Executive Compensation; Crisis Management; Financial Crisis; Manufacturing Industry

July–August 2021
Article

Lowering the Bar? External Conditions, Opportunity Costs, and High-Tech Startup Outcomes

By: Annamaria Conti and Maria P. Roche

We assess the heterogeneous impact of economic downturns on individuals’ decisions to bring high-technology ideas to the market in the form of new ventures. We thereby examine how worsening labor market conditions influence individuals’ opportunity costs of starting... View Details

Keywords: Necessity Entrepreneurship; Economic Conditions; Recessions; High-tech Startups; Opportunity Costs; Entrepreneurship; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Business Startups; Information Technology; Performance; Labor

March 2024
Article

Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups

By: Shai Bernstein, Richard Townsend and Ting Xu

Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how individuals’ job search and application behavior changed during the COVID-19 downturn. We find that job seekers shifted their searches toward more established firms and away from early-stage startups, even... View Details

Keywords: Startup Labor Market; Flight To Safety; COVID-19; Recession; Job Search; Behavior

2022
Working Paper

Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups

By: Shai Bernstein, Richard Townsend and Ting Xu

Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how individuals’ job search and application behavior changed during the COVID-19 downturn. We find that job seekers shifted their searches toward more established firms and away from early-stage startups, even... View Details

Keywords: Startup Labor Market; Flight To Safety; COVID-19; Recession; Business Startups; Human Capital; Business Cycles; Health Pandemics

SSRN

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November 2017
Article

Credit-Induced Boom and Bust

By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani

Can a credit expansion induce a boom and bust in house prices and real economic activity? This paper exploits the federal preemption of national banks in 2004 from local laws against predatory lending to gauge the effect of the supply of credit on the real economy.... View Details

Keywords: Great Recession; Subprime; Credit Supply; Credit Expansion; Household Leverage; Household Debt; Preemption Rule; Mortgages; Laws and Statutes; Credit; Household; Borrowing and Debt; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation

SSRN

October 2019
Article

Partial Deregulation and Competition: Effects on Risky Mortgage Origination

By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Sanket Korgaonkar

We exploit the OCC's preemption of national banks from state laws against predatory lending as a quasi-experiment to study the effect of deregulation and its interaction with competition on the supply of complex mortgages. Following the preemption ruling, national... View Details

Keywords: Great Recession; Subprime; Complex Mortgages; Credit Supply; Household Debt; Preemption Rule; Competition; Mortgages; Government Legislation; Credit; Financial Crisis

May 2015
Teaching Note

The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity

By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White

After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113... View Details

16 Aug 2022
Op-Ed

Now Is the Time for Entrepreneurs to Play Offense

For the past six months, there has been a lot of handwringing about the market downturn. Most everyone has been advising entrepreneurs to marshal their capital, cut costs, and extend their runway. In essence, play defense. Many investors have been creating a whiplash... View Details

Keywords: by Jeffrey Bussgang

2014
Working Paper

The State of Small Business Lending: Credit Access During the Recovery and How Technology May Change the Game

By: Karen G. Mills and Brayden McCarthy

Small businesses are core to America's economic competitiveness. Not only do they employ half of the nation's private sector workforce—about 120 million people—but since 1995 they have created approximately two-thirds of the net new jobs in our country. Yet in recent... View Details

Keywords: Small Business; Financing and Loans; United States

SSRN

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2019
Book

Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream: How Technology Is Transforming Lending and Shaping a New Era of Small Business Opportunity

By: Karen G. Mills

Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream describes the needs of small businesses for capital and demonstrates how technology—novel data sources, artificial intelligence, machine learning—will transform the small business lending market. This market has been... View Details

29 Jun 2009
Sharpening Your Skills

Sharpening Your Skills: Leading Change

Sharpening Your Skills dives into the HBS Working Knowledge archives to bring together articles on ways to improve your business skills. Questions To Be Answered: How do I build my business in this environment? What should leaders communicate? My organization doesn't... View Details

Keywords: by Staff

13 Jun 2012
HBS Case

HBS Cases: A Startup Takes On the Credit Ratings Giants

For most of the 20th century, three bond ratings agencies—Moody's, Fitch, and Standard & Poor's—dominated the credit ratings industry, recently controlling 97 percent of the market. But the status quo was disrupted by the 2008 global economic recession, an event... View Details

Keywords: by Maggie Starvish; Banking; Financial Services

August 2010 (Revised March 2012)
Supplement

The Dow Acquisition of Rohm and Haas (C)

By: Jay W. Lorsch and Melissa Barton

The global economy entered a crippling recession in the fourth quarter of 2008 and Dow lost its primary source of funding for its planned acquisition of Rohm and Haas. View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Financial Crisis; Financing and Loans; Chemical Industry

09 Mar 2010
First Look

First Look: March 9

market reaction to attempts to enforce sovereign debt contracts via U.S. "dollar diplomacy" in Latin America in the pre-World War II period and by legal action in the 1990s and early 2000s. We argue that dollar diplomacy created an effective and credible... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

17 Nov 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Venture Capitalists and COVID-19

Keywords: by Paul A. Gompers, Will Gornall, Steven N. Kaplan, and Ilya A. Strebulaev; Financial Services

February 2012
Case

Kent Chemical: Organizing for International Growth

By: Christopher A. Bartlett and Laura Winig

In July 2008, Luis Morales, president of Kent Chemical International, is proposing a third reorganization effort after two failed attempts to better align his business with its U.S.-based parent company. With a global expansion strategy placing increasing demands on... View Details

Keywords: International Business; Organizational Change; Multinational Corporations; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Multinational Firms and Management; Organizational Design; Management Practices and Processes; Organizational Structure; Corporate Strategy; Organizational Culture; Global Strategy; Chemical Industry; United States

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