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    • All HBS Web  (878)
      • Faculty Publications  (155)

      Decision TheoryRemove Decision Theory →

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      • Article

      Default Neglect in Attempts at Social Influence

      By: Julian Zlatev, David P. Daniels, Hajin Kim and Margaret A. Neale
      Current theories suggest that people understand how to exploit common biases to influence others. However, these predictions have received little empirical attention. We consider a widely studied bias with special policy relevance: the default effect, which is the... View Details
      Keywords: Social Influence; Default Effect; Nudges; Choice Architecture; Decision Making; Behavior
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      Zlatev, Julian, David P. Daniels, Hajin Kim, and Margaret A. Neale. "Default Neglect in Attempts at Social Influence." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 52 (December 26, 2017).
      • Article

      Howard Raiffa: The Art, Science, and Humanity of a Legendary Negotiation Analyst

      By: James K. Sebenius
      Rightly known as the “father of negotiation analysis,” Howard Raiffa was my thesis advisor, colleague, and friend for over 30 years. The bulk of this article develops an account of his intellectual trajectory from game theory to statistical decision theory to decision... View Details
      Keywords: Negotiation Analysis; Bargaining; Howard Raiffa; Negotiation; Personal Development and Career
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      Sebenius, James K. "Howard Raiffa: The Art, Science, and Humanity of a Legendary Negotiation Analyst." Negotiation Journal 33, no. 4 (October 2017): 283–307.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      The Effects of Media Slant on Firm Behavior

      By: Vishal P. Baloria and Jonas Heese
      The media can impose reputational costs on firms because of its important role as an information intermediary and its ability to negatively slant coverage. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment that holds constant the information event across firms, but varies the... View Details
      Keywords: Media Slant; Reputational Capital; Strategic Corporate Decisions
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      Baloria, Vishal P., and Jonas Heese. "The Effects of Media Slant on Firm Behavior." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-015, August 2017.
      • August 2017
      • Article

      A Formal Theory of Strategy

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen
      What makes a decision strategic? When is strategy most important? This paper formally studies these questions, starting from a (functional) definition of strategy as “the smallest set of choices to optimally guide (or force) other choices.” The paper shows that this... View Details
      Keywords: Strategy Development; Strategy; Decisions
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "A Formal Theory of Strategy." Management Science 63, no. 8 (August 2017): 2616–2636.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Digital Agility: The Impact of Software Portfolio Architecture on IT System Evolution

      By: Alan MacCormack, Robert Lagerström, Martin Mocker and Carliss Y. Baldwin
      The modern industrial firm increasingly relies on software to support its competitive position. However, the uncertain and dynamic nature of today’s global marketplace dictates that this software be continually evolved and adapted to meet new business challenges. This... View Details
      Keywords: Information Systems; Software; Architecture; Modularity; Agility; Coupling; Applications and Software; Design; Decisions; Performance
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      MacCormack, Alan, Robert Lagerström, Martin Mocker, and Carliss Y. Baldwin. "Digital Agility: The Impact of Software Portfolio Architecture on IT System Evolution." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-105, May 2017. (Revised October 2017.)
      • 2017
      • Article

      Refugees Misdirected: How Information, Misinformation and Rumors Shape Refugees’ Access to Fundamental Rights

      By: Melissa Carlson, Laura Jakli and Katerina Linos
      The global refugee regime represents one of the few generous commitments governments offer to outsiders. Indeed, few persons fleeing armed conflict actually claim international protection upon first arriving in Europe, even though the benefits of legal protection are... View Details
      Keywords: Refugees; Knowledge Dissemination; Trust; Risk and Uncertainty; Rights; Europe
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      Carlson, Melissa, Laura Jakli, and Katerina Linos. "Refugees Misdirected: How Information, Misinformation and Rumors Shape Refugees’ Access to Fundamental Rights." Virginia Journal of International Law 57, no. 3 (2017): 539–574.
      • Article

      Experience Theory, or How Desserts Are Like Losses

      By: Jolie M. Martin, Martin Reimann and Michael I. Norton
      While many experiments have explored risk preferences for money, few have systematically assessed risk preferences for everyday experiences. We propose a conceptual model and provide convergent evidence from seven experiments that, in contrast to a typical “zero”... View Details
      Keywords: Experiences; Monetary Gambles; Risk Preferences; Experience Theory; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Martin, Jolie M., Martin Reimann, and Michael I. Norton. "Experience Theory, or How Desserts Are Like Losses." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 145, no. 11 (November 2016): 1460–1472.
      • September–October 2016
      • Article

      Growing New Corporate Businesses: From Initiation to Graduation

      By: Sebastian Raisch and Michael Tushman
      Large companies initiate many new businesses, but few of them reach scale. The ambidexterity literature describes how companies create exploratory businesses, but says little about how they subsequently scale these businesses. The strategy literature uses real option... View Details
      Keywords: Ambidexterity; Comparative Case Study; Corporate Venturing; Exploration; Organization Design; Real Option Theory; Organizational Design; Corporate Strategy; Corporate Entrepreneurship
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      Raisch, Sebastian, and Michael Tushman. "Growing New Corporate Businesses: From Initiation to Graduation." Organization Science 27, no. 5 (September–October 2016).
      • 2016
      • Other Teaching and Training Material

      Organizational Behavior Reading: Decision Making

      By: Francesca Gino, Max Bazerman and Katherine Shonk
      This Reading argues that decision making is systematically flawed and introduces methods to improve decision-making effectiveness. The Essential Reading section covers the rational decision-making model and three important ideas that challenge it: Herbert Simon's... View Details
      Keywords: Game Theory; Decision Making
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      Gino, Francesca, Max Bazerman, and Katherine Shonk. "Organizational Behavior Reading: Decision Making." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Boston, MA: Harvard Business Publishing 8383, 2016. Electronic.
      • 2016
      • Article

      Recursive Mentalizing and Common Knowledge in the Bystander Effect

      By: Kyle A. Thomas, Julian De Freitas, Peter DiScioli and Steven Pinker
      The more potential helpers there are, the less likely any individual is to help. A traditional explanation for this bystander effect is that responsibility diffuses across the multiple bystanders, diluting the responsibility of each. We investigate an... View Details
      Keywords: Bystander Effect; Diffusion Of Responsibility; Volunteer's Dilemma; Common Knowledge; Theory Of Mind; Behavior; Theory
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      Thomas, Kyle A., Julian De Freitas, Peter DiScioli, and Steven Pinker. "Recursive Mentalizing and Common Knowledge in the Bystander Effect." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 145, no. 5 (2016): 621–629.
      • 2015
      • Chapter

      The Consumer Psychology of Online Privacy: Insights and Opportunities from Behavioral Decision Theory

      By: Leslie K. John
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      John, Leslie K. "The Consumer Psychology of Online Privacy: Insights and Opportunities from Behavioral Decision Theory." In The Cambridge Handbook of Consumer Psychology, edited by Michael I. Norton, Derek D. Rucker, and Cait Lamberton. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015.
      • 2015
      • Chapter

      Deep Smarts as the Underpinnings of Dynamic Capabilities

      By: Dorothy A. Leonard and Michelle Barton
      Both ordinary and dynamic capabilities depend upon the deep smarts, i.e., business-critical, experience-based knowledge, held in the heads of an organization’s top talent. This chapter examines the links between individual and organizational capabilities and presents... View Details
      Keywords: Management Skills; Experience and Expertise; Innovation and Invention
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      Leonard, Dorothy A., and Michelle Barton. "Deep Smarts as the Underpinnings of Dynamic Capabilities." In The Oxford Handbook of Dynamic Capabilities, edited by David J. Teece and Sohvi Leih. Oxford University Press, 2015. Electronic.
      • 2015
      • Other Teaching and Training Material

      Competitive Strategies Marketing Reading

      By: Jill Avery and Sunil Gupta
      Core Curriculum Readings in Marketing cover the fundamental concepts, theories, and frameworks that business students must study.
      This Reading illuminates the dynamics of companies in competition and offers a process for planning and executing marketing... View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy
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      Avery, Jill, and Sunil Gupta. "Competitive Strategies Marketing Reading." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Boston: Harvard Business School Publishing 8158, 2015.
      • March 2015
      • Teaching Note

      CVS Health: Promoting Drug Adherence

      By: Leslie John, John Quelch and Robert Huckman
      Email mking@hbs.edu for a courtesy copy.

      This Teaching Note explains the theory of the case and teaching plan for the case: CVS Health: Promoting Drug Adherence (515010). The case finds Helena Foulkes, Executive... View Details
      Keywords: Medication Adherence; Affordable Care Act (ACA); Marketing Strategy; Communication Strategy; Customer Value and Value Chain; Decisions; Health Care and Treatment; Goals and Objectives; Resource Allocation; Marketing Communications; Consumer Behavior; Measurement and Metrics; Service Delivery; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Social Issues; Information Technology; Value Creation; Health Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; Insurance Industry; Public Relations Industry; Retail Industry; United States
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      John, Leslie, John Quelch, and Robert Huckman. "CVS Health: Promoting Drug Adherence." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 515-086, March 2015. (Email mking@hbs.edu for a courtesy copy.)
      • February 2015
      • Article

      Location Choices under Strategic Interactions

      By: Juan Alcacer, Cristian Dezso and Minyuan Zhao
      The literature on location choices has mostly emphasized the impact of location and firm characteristics. However, most industries with a significant presence of multi-location firms are oligopolistic in nature, which suggests that strategic interaction among firms... View Details
      Keywords: Location Strategies; Multinational Strategy; Oligopolistic Competition; Firm Heterogeneity; Geographic Location; Multinational Firms and Management; Balance and Stability; Decision Choices and Conditions; Game Theory
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      Alcacer, Juan, Cristian Dezso, and Minyuan Zhao. "Location Choices under Strategic Interactions." Strategic Management Journal 36, no. 2 (February 2015): 197–215.
      • 2015
      • Chapter

      Optimal Process Control of Symbolic Transfer Functions

      By: Christopher Griffin and Elisabeth Paulson
      Transfer function modeling is a standard technique in classical Linear Time Invariant and Statistical Process Control. The work of Box and Jenkins was seminal in developing methods for identifying parameters associated with classical (r, s, k) transfer functions.... View Details
      Keywords: Transfer Functions; Markov Processes; Stochastic Models; Process Control; Research; Information Technology
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      Griffin, Christopher, and Elisabeth Paulson. "Optimal Process Control of Symbolic Transfer Functions." In Proceedings of the 10th International Workshop on Feedback Computing. IEEE, 2015.
      • 2015
      • Conference Presentation

      The Strategic Bystander: Recursive Theory of Mind and Common Knowledge in Decisions to Help

      By: J. De Freitas, K. A. Thomas, P. DeScioli and S. Pinker
      Citation
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      De Freitas, J., K. A. Thomas, P. DeScioli, and S. Pinker. "The Strategic Bystander: Recursive Theory of Mind and Common Knowledge in Decisions to Help." Paper presented at the 27th Human Behavior and Evolution Society Annual Conference, Columbia, MO, United States, 2015.
      • Article

      Heuristics Guide the Implementation of Social Preferences in One-Shot Prisoner's Dilemma Experiments

      By: Jillian J. Jordan, Valerio Capraro and David G. Rand
      Cooperation in one-shot anonymous interactions is a widely documented aspect of human behavior. Here we shed light on the motivations behind this behavior by experimentally exploring cooperation in a one-shot continuous-strategy Prisoner’s Dilemma (i.e. one-shot... View Details
      Keywords: Human Behavior; Social Evolution; Behavior; Cooperation; Decision Making; Game Theory
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      Jordan, Jillian J., Valerio Capraro, and David G. Rand. "Heuristics Guide the Implementation of Social Preferences in One-Shot Prisoner's Dilemma Experiments." Art. 6790. Scientific Reports 4 (2014).
      • 2014
      • Book

      Managerial Accounting: Making Decisions and Motivating Performance

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Madhav Rajan
      Managerial Accounting: Making Decisions and Motivating Performance enables future managers and business owners to attain the core skills they need to become integral members of their company’s decision-making teams. This new program from established authors... View Details
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Madhav Rajan. Managerial Accounting: Making Decisions and Motivating Performance. Prentice Hall, 2014.
      • September 2014
      • Article

      The Interrelationships Between Brand and Channel Choice

      By: Scott Neslin, Kenshuk Jerath, Anand Bodapati, Eric T. Bradlow, John A. Deighton, Sonja Gensler, Leonard Lee, Elisa Montaguti, Rahul Telang, Raj Venkatesan, Peter C. Verhoef and Z. John Zhang
      We propose a framework for the joint study of the consumer's decision of where to buy and what to buy. The framework is rooted in utility theory where the utility is for a particular channel/brand combination. The framework contains firm actions, the consumer search... View Details
      Keywords: Brand Choice; Channel Choice; Utility Theory; Marketing; Decision Choices and Conditions; Consumer Behavior; Learning; Electronics Industry; Auto Industry; Information Technology Industry; Telecommunications Industry; Aerospace Industry
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      Neslin, Scott, Kenshuk Jerath, Anand Bodapati, Eric T. Bradlow, John A. Deighton, Sonja Gensler, Leonard Lee, Elisa Montaguti, Rahul Telang, Raj Venkatesan, Peter C. Verhoef, and Z. John Zhang. "The Interrelationships Between Brand and Channel Choice." Marketing Letters 25, no. 3 (September 2014): 319–330.
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