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Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: A Quantitative Approach (joint with Fabio Kanczuk)
By: Laura Alfaro
We construct a dynamic equilibrium model with contingent service and adverse selection to quantitatively study sovereign debt. In the model, benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. For a wide parameter, the only equilibrium is one in which...
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- Research Summary
Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows and Global Imbalances
By: Laura Alfaro
We construct measures of net private and public capital flows for a large cross-section of developing countries considering both creditor and debtor side of the international debt transactions. Using these measures, we demonstrate that sovereign-to-sovereign... View Details
- Forthcoming
- Article
Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects under practical settings with...
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Imai, Kosuke, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (forthcoming). (Pre-published online July 8, 2024.)
- Forthcoming
- Article
The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications
By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Daniel K. Tarullo
As revealed by the failures of three regional banks in the spring of 2023, bank runs are not a thing of the past. To inform the ongoing discussion of the appropriate regulatory response, we examine trends in the banking industry over the last twenty-five years. On the...
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Keywords:
Financial Instruments;
Financial Crisis;
Assets;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Financial Condition;
Banking Industry
Hanson, Samuel Gregory, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam, and Daniel K. Tarullo. "The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (forthcoming).
- Research Summary
The Global Agglomeration of Multinational Firms
By: Laura Alfaro
The explosion of multinational activities in recent decades is rapidly transforming the global landscape of industrial production. But are the emerging clusters of multinational production the rule or the exception? What drives the offshore agglomeration of...
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- Research Summary
The Global Networks of Multinational Firms (with Maggie Chen)
By: Laura Alfaro
In this paper we characterize the topology of global multinational networks and examine the macro and micro patterns of multinational activity. We construct indices of network density at both pairwise industry and establishment level and measure agglomeration in a...
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- Forthcoming
- Article
Transitioning Into Retirement: The Interplay of Self and Life Structure
By: Marcy Crary, Douglas T. (Tim) Hall, Kathy E. Kram, Teresa M. Amabile and Lotte Bailyn
This paper explores the psychological, social, and behavioral ways in which professionals end their corporate careers and reorient themselves and their lives in the transition from employment to retirement. Framed within life course theory, specifically the adult...
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Crary, Marcy, Douglas T. (Tim) Hall, Kathy E. Kram, Teresa M. Amabile, and Lotte Bailyn. "Transitioning Into Retirement: The Interplay of Self and Life Structure." Working, Aging and Retirement (forthcoming). (Pre-published online March 21, 2024.)
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