Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(1,762)
- Faculty Publications (779)
- March 2005
- Article
Sovereign Debt As a Contingent Claim: A Quantitative Approach
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
We construct a dynamic equilibrium model with contingent service and adverse selection to quantitatively study sovereign debt. In the model, benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. For a wide set of parameters, the only equilibrium is one... View Details
- February 2005
- Article
Swapping Your Country's Risks
By: Robert C. Merton
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty
- January 2005 (Revised October 2005)
- Background Note
Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process
By: Rawi E. Abdelal and Christopher Bruner
Describes Standard & Poor's sovereign credit ratings scales and the credit rating process. In particular, describes the role and function of the rating committee and the analytical categories considered in arriving at a final sovereign credit rating. View Details
- January 2005
- Article
Agency Costs in a Supply Chain with Demand Uncertainty and Price Competition
By: V.G. Narayanan, Ananth Raman and J. Singh
- January 2005
- Article
Business Groups and Risk Sharing Around the World
By: Tarun Khanna and Yishay Yafeh
- 2005
- Working Paper
Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details
- Article
Organizational Beliefs and Managerial Vision
Can managers have an impact on their firm that goes beyond their direct actions and decisions? This article shows that a manager with strong beliefs about the right course of action will attract, through sorting in the labor market, employees with similar beliefs. This... View Details
- 2005
- Class Lecture
Organizational Learning in the Face of Ambiguous Threats
By: Amy C. Edmondson, Michael A. Roberto and Richard M.J. Bohmer
- December 2004 (Revised October 2005)
- Case
Hasbro Games -- POX (A)
By: David B. Godes and Elie Ofek
Hasbro's newest toy is so unique it requires a unique launch strategy. Comparing traditional media (TV, print) with a non-traditional viral campaign, Matt Collins must weigh the risks and benefits of doing things the way they've always been done or blazing a new path... View Details
- Article
Strategic Management of Product Recovery
Manufacturers of an expanding range of durable products are facing regulatory and market pressures to manage the products they manufactured upon their end of life (EOL). In part, this attention is motivated by a growing number of countries—especially across Europe and... View Details
- 19 Nov 2004 - 22 Nov 2004
- Conference Presentation
Managing Innovation and Product Development...Under Uncertainty
By: Alan MacCormack
- 2004
- Other Unpublished Work
Capital and Value of Risk Transfer: Presented at Actuarial Approach for Financial Risks (AFIR) Colloquium, Boston, MA, November
By: K. Froot, G. Venter and J. Major
- September 2004
- Article
Estimating the Market Risk Premium
- September 2004
- Article
Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)
Rational agents with differing priors tend to be overoptimistic about their chances of success. In particular, an agent who tries to choose the action that is most likely to succeed, is more likely to choose an action of which he overestimated, rather than... View Details
- September 2004
- Article
Trust in Agency
Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the... View Details
- August 2004 (Revised June 2005)
- Case
Fate of the Vasa, The
By: Alan D. MacCormack and Richard Mason
In 1628, the royal warship Vasa was launched. It was Sweden's most expensive naval vessel ever built, costing over 5% of GNP. On its maiden voyage, the ship sailed 1,400 yards in its own harbor, heeled over to the side, and then sank. One third of the 150 crew and... View Details
- August 2004
- Article
Capital Controls, Risk and Liberalization Cycles
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The paper presents an overlapping-generations model where agents vote on whether to open or close the economy to international capital flows. Political decisions are shaped by the risk over capital and labor returns. In an open economy, the capitalists (old) completely... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Development Economics; Voting; Risk and Uncertainty; Cash Flow; Saving; Investment; Economy; Wages
- July 2004 (Revised May 2008)
- Case
Beacon Lakes
By: Arthur I Segel, Robert Barlick Jr and Jose Gonzalez
In September 2001, Armando Codina, the CEO and chairman of Codina Group, is facing the decision of whether to go ahead as planned with its $220 million Beacon Lakes project, a 6.6-million-square-foot warehouse and office park in Miami's Airport West submarket. Although... View Details
- May 2004 (Revised April 2006)
- Case
Ultra: The Quest for Leadership (A)
By: Dwight B. Crane and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho
Ultra is one of a small group of competing Brazilian petrochemical companies, each of which buys raw material and is a minority owner of Copene, a "cracking" company that provides ethylene and other materials. Because of an industry restructuring, an auction of shares... View Details
- March 2004 (Revised February 2006)
- Case
Salt Lake Organizing Committee, The: 2002 Olympics
By: H. Kent Bowen, Bryce LaPierre and Courtney Purrington
After two and a half years of effort, Fraser Bullock, COO of the 2002 Winter Olympics, faced projected deficits and post-9/11 security requirements only five months before the opening ceremony. Summarizes the organizational structure and processes put in place by... View Details