Forecasting And Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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01 Mar 2024
News

Alumni and Faculty Books and Podcasts

pervasive and least-understood fail point that threatens to kneecap even the best-laid scaling plan: organizational friction. Bier reveals why organizational frictions take hold as you grow and how they slow... View Details

Keywords: Publishing Industries (except Internet); Information

January 2023
Article

Racial Diversity and Racial Policy Preferences: The Great Migration and Civil Rights

By: Alvaro Calderon, Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini

Between 1940 and 1970, more than 4 million African Americans moved from the South to the North of the United States, during the Second Great Migration. This same period witnessed the struggle and eventual success of the civil rights movement in ending institutionalized... View Details

Keywords: Civil Rights; Great Migration; History; Race; Rights; Prejudice and Bias; Government Legislation

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2022
Working Paper

Values as Luxury Goods and Political Polarization

By: Benjamin Enke, Mattias Polborn and Alex A Wu

Motivated by novel survey evidence, this paper develops a theory of political behavior in which values are a luxury good: the relative weight voters place on values rather than material considerations increases in income. The model predicts (i) voters who are... View Details

Keywords: Political Polarization; Government and Politics; Moral Sensibility; Luxury; Values and Beliefs; Voting

2016
Working Paper

CEO Personality and Firm Policies

By: Ian D. Gow, Steven N. Kaplan, David F. Larcker and Anastasia A. Zakolyukina

Based on two samples of high quality personality data for chief executive officers (CEOs), we use linguistic features extracted from conferences calls and statistical learning techniques to develop a measure of CEO personality in terms of the Big Five traits:... View Details

Keywords: Interpersonal Communication; Personal Characteristics; Management Teams

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November 2010 (Revised May 2014)
Case

Dow's Bid for Rohm and Haas

By: Benjamin C. Esty and David Lane

This case analyzes Dow Chemical Company's proposed acquisition of Rohm and Haas in 2008. The $18.8 billion acquisition was part of Dow's strategic transformation from a slow-growth, low-margin, and cyclical producer of basic chemicals into a higher-growth,... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Financial Crisis; Capital Structure; Financial Condition; Financial Management; Contracts; Lawsuits and Litigation; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Chemical Industry

Forthcoming
Article

Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs

By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? Motivated by survey data on beliefs about Covid we collected in 2020, we build a model based on the psychology of selective memory. When a person thinks about an event,... View Details

Keywords: Expectations; Memory; COVID-19 Pandemic; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking

2021
Working Paper

Time Dependency, Data Flow, and Competitive Advantage

By: Ehsan Valavi, Joel Hestness, Marco Iansiti, Newsha Ardalani, Feng Zhu and Karim R. Lakhani

Data is fundamental to machine learning-based products and services and is considered strategic due to its externalities for businesses, governments, non-profits, and more generally for society. It is renowned that the value of organizations (businesses, government... View Details

Keywords: Economics Of AI; Value Of Data; Perishability; Time Dependency; Flow Of Data; Data Strategy; Analytics and Data Science; Value; Strategy; Competitive Advantage

04 Oct 2017
News

Researchers Combat Gender and Racial Bias in Artificial Intelligence

October 2015
Article

Agglomerative Forces and Cluster Shapes

By: William R. Kerr and Scott Duke Kominers

We model spatial clusters of similar firms. Our model highlights how agglomerative forces lead to localized, individual connections among firms, while interaction costs generate a defined distance over which attraction forces operate. Overlapping firm interactions... View Details

Keywords: Agglomeration; Clusters; Industrial Organization; Silicon Valley; Technology Flows; Patents; Networks; Information Technology; Industry Clusters; Entrepreneurship; California

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2011
Working Paper

'Last-place Aversion': Evidence and Redistributive Implications

By: Ilyana Kuziemko, Ryan W. Buell, Taly Reich and Michael I. Norton

Why do low-income individuals often oppose redistribution? We hypothesize that an aversion to being in "last place" undercuts support for redistribution, with low-income individuals punishing those slightly below themselves to keep someone "beneath" them. In laboratory... View Details

Keywords: Wages; Surveys; Wealth and Poverty; Behavior; Income; Research; Rank and Position; Attitudes; Personal Characteristics; Economics

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September 2011
Article

Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas

By: Edward J. Riedl and George Serafeim

Using a sample of U.S. financial institutions, we exploit recent mandatory disclosures of financial instruments designated as fair value level 1, 2, and 3 to test whether greater information risk in financial instrument fair values leads to higher cost of capital. We... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Assets; Cost of Capital; Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Corporate Disclosure; Information; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; United States

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Article

Financial Innovation and Endogenous Growth

By: Luc Laeven, Ross Levine and Stelios Michalopoulos

Is financial innovation necessary for sustaining economic growth? To address this question, we build a Schumpeterian model in which entrepreneurs earn profits by inventing better goods, and profit-maximizing financiers arise to screen entrepreneurs. The model has two... View Details

Keywords: Technological Innovation; Economic Growth

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Forthcoming
Article

FinTech Lending and Cashless Payments

By: Pulak Ghosh, Boris Vallée and Yao Zeng

Borrower's use of cashless payments both improves their access to capital from FinTech lenders and predicts a lower probability of default. These relationships are stronger for cashless technologies providing more precise information, and for outflows. Cashless payment... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Lending; Payments; Data Sharing; Financing and Loans; Information Technology; Banks and Banking; Business Model

2023
Working Paper

Complexity and Hyperbolic Discounting

By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea

A large literature shows that people discount financial rewards hyperbolically instead of exponentially. While discounting of money has been questioned as a measure of time preferences, it continues to be highly relevant in empirical practice and predicts a wide range... View Details

Keywords: Hyperbolic Discounting; Present Bias; Bounded Rationality; Cognitive Uncertainty; Behavioral Finance

March 2021
Article

International Trade and Social Connectedness

By: Michael Bailey, Abhinav Gupta, Sebastian Hillenbrand, Theresa Kuchler, Robert J. Richmond and Johannes Stroebel

We use de-identified data from Facebook to construct a new and publicly available measure of the pairwise social connectedness between 170 countries and 332 European regions. We find that two countries trade more when they are more socially connected, especially for... View Details

Keywords: Social Connections; International Trade; Trade; Social Media

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2010
Working Paper

Agglomerative Forces and Cluster Shapes

By: William R. Kerr and Scott Duke Kominers

We model spatial clusters of similar firms. Our model highlights how agglomerative forces lead to localized, individual connections among firms, while interaction costs generate a defined distance over which attraction forces operate. Overlapping firm interactions... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Geographic Location; Patents; Labor; Industry Clusters; Industry Structures; Relationships; Competitive Advantage; Technology Industry; California

24 Apr 2020
Op-Ed

Lessons from the NFL: Virtual Hiring, Leadership, Building Teams and COVID-19

talent during the 2020 season, and millions on top of that for coaches, managers, and other front office staff. How can teams ensure that these dollars are well spent? And what... View Details

Keywords: by Sarah Abbott , Boris Groysberg, Tali Groysberg, and Abhijit Naik; Sports

2023
Working Paper

Debiasing Treatment Effect Estimation for Privacy-Protected Data: A Model Auditing and Calibration Approach

By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza

Data-driven targeted interventions have become a powerful tool for organizations to optimize business outcomes by utilizing individual-level data from experiments. A key element of this process is the estimation of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE), which... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Marketing

February 2017 (Revised June 2017)
Case

ExxonMobil: Business as Usual? (A)

By: George Serafeim, Shiva Rajgopal and David Freiberg

Climate change was becoming an important societal and business issue as more governments were introducing climate change related regulations and investors became increasibly worried about stranded assets within oil and gas firms. In September 2016, the U.S. Securities... View Details

Keywords: Oil ＆ Gas; Oil Prices; Oil Companies; Asset Impairment; Predictive Analytics; Sustainability; Environmental Impact; Innovation; Disclosure; Accounting; Valuation; Climate Change; Renewable Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Financial Reporting; Energy Industry

2010
Other Unpublished Work

International Capital Allocation, Sovereign Borrowing, and Growth

By: Laura Alfaro, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Vadym Volosovych

The key in the investigation of "where" and "why" capital flows, relative to the neoclassical benchmark, is how we measure these flows. The macro literature has been using three main yardsticks: the current account balance, returns to capital, and the volume of net... View Details

Keywords: Economic Growth; Borrowing and Debt; Capital; Cash Flow; Private Equity; Public Equity; International Finance; Sovereign Finance; Government and Politics

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