Forecasting And Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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Article

Why Do Pro Forma and Street Earnings Not Reflect Changes in GAAP? Evidence from SFAS 123R

By: Ian D. Gow, Mary E. Barth and Daniel Taylor

This study examines how key market participants—managers and analysts—responded to SFAS 123R's controversial requirement that firms recognize stock-based compensation expense. Despite mandated recognition of the expense, some firms' managers exclude it from pro forma... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Employee Stock Ownership Plan

Research Summary

Corporate Control and Valuation

By: Richard S. Ruback

Richard S. Ruback's research and course development focus on applied corporate finance-in particular, corporate control transactions and valuation. His research on corporate control has yielded case studies on major transactions, such as the View Details

2016
Working Paper

The Mirroring Hypothesis: Theory, Evidence and Exceptions

By: Lyra J. Colfer and Carliss Y. Baldwin

The mirroring hypothesis predicts that organizational ties within a project, firm, or group of firms (e.g., communication, collocation, employment) will correspond to the technical patterns of dependency in the work being performed. A thorough understanding of the... View Details

Keywords: Modularity; Innovation; Product And Process Development; Organization Design; Design Structure; Organizational Ties; Mirroring Hypothesis; Industry Architecture; Product Architecture; Complex Technical Systems; Information Technology; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Relationships; Innovation and Invention; Product Development

August 2006
Article

Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility

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January 2018
Article

Innovation Incentives and Biomarkers

By: Ariel Dora Stern, Brian M. Alexander and Amitabh Chandra

Previously, we have discussed the importance of economic incentives in shaping markets for precision medicines. Here we consider incentives for biomarker development, including discovery and establishment. Biomarkers can reveal valuable information regarding diagnosis... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Innovation and Invention; Research and Development; Markets

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TeachingInterests

Strategy - Building and Sustaining Competitive Advantage

By: Jan W. Rivkin

With the accelerating pace of competition, cutting-edge companies are defined by innovative strategies. In this Executive Education program, we explore how to develop groundbreaking stratgies and action plans for execution, forecast industry evolution, and analyze... View Details

Article

Corporate Culture and Analyst Catering

By: Joseph Pacelli

This study examines the relation between financial institutions’ corporate culture and the quality of analysts’ research services. Using data collected from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, I measure the weakness of financial institutions’ corporate culture... View Details

Keywords: Analysts; Corporate Culture; Global Settlement; Financial Institutions; Organizational Culture; Conflict of Interests; Performance; Quality

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2014
Chapter

Appetite, Consumption, and Choice in the Human Brain

By: Brian Knutson and Uma R. Karmarkar

Although linked, researchers have long distinguished appetitive from consummatory phases of reward processing. Recent improvements in the spatial and temporal resolution of neuroimaging techniques have allowed researchers to separately visualize different stages of... View Details

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July 2010
Teaching Note

Monmouth, Inc. (Brief Case)

By: Thomas R. Piper and Heide Abelli

Teaching Note for 4226. View Details

Keywords: Competitive Bidding; Forecasting; Stock Offerings; Mergers ＆ Acquisitions; Valuation, Margins; Stocks; Valuation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Bids and Bidding

03 Apr 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Clear and Present Danger: Planning and New Venture Survival Amid Political and Civil Violence

Keywords: by Shon Hiatt & Wesley Sine

The Link Between Bonds and Individual Stocks

Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details

Summer 2021
Article

Platform Leadership and Supply Chains: Intel, Centrino, and the Restructuring of Wi-Fi Supply

By: Roberto Fontana and Shane Greenstein

In this paper we examine Intel’s launch of Centrino and interpret it as platform leaders attempt to restructure a supply chain. We provide a narrative of key actions and how they coordinated changes and offer a framework of the predictable consequences for... View Details

Keywords: Mobile and Wireless Technology; Product Launch; Supply Chain; Restructuring; Framework

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Forthcoming
Article

Human-Algorithm Collaboration with Private Information: Naïve Advice Weighting Behavior and Mitigation

By: Maya Balakrishnan, Kris Ferreira and Jordan Tong

Even if algorithms make better predictions than humans on average, humans may sometimes have private information which an algorithm does not have access to that can improve performance. How can we help humans effectively use and adjust recommendations made by... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Digital Marketing

April 2024
Article

Loneliness and Emotion Regulation in Daily Life

By: Lameese Eldesouky, Amit Goldenberg and Kate Ellis

There is a growing understanding that emotion regulation (ER) abilities can be an important buffer for loneliness. However, most of this research is cross-sectional. Thus, it is unknown whether loneliness is associated with ER in momentary evaluations and can predict... View Details

Keywords: Interpersonal Communication; Emotions; Attitudes; Egypt

2012
Article

Behavioral Economics and the Psychology of Fruit and Vegetable Consumption

By: Joe Price and Jason Riis

Behavioral economics is an emerging paradigm that challenges the assumptions and predictions of classical economics. This new paradigm emphasizes that consumers do not always make optimal use of available information nor do they always make choices and tradeoffs in a... View Details

Keywords: Plant-Based Agribusiness; Food; Social Marketing; Decision Choices and Conditions; Consumer Behavior; Nutrition

August 2017
Article

Tort Reform and Innovation

By: Alberto Galasso and Hong Luo

Current academic and policy debates focus on the impact of tort reforms on physicians’ behavior and medical costs. This paper examines whether these reforms also affect incentives to develop new technologies. We develop a theoretical model that predicts that the impact... View Details

Keywords: Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Health Care and Treatment; Technological Innovation; Legal Liability; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry

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March 2012
Article

China's Growing IT Services and Software Industry: Challenges and Implications

By: F. Warren McFarlan, Ning Jia and Justin Wong

The Chinese management software and IT services industry has grown dramatically over the past two decades and today is about the size of the Indian industry a decade ago. The objective of this article is to help CIOs in firms outside of China better understand the... View Details

Keywords: Growth and Development; Information Technology; Applications and Software; Problems and Challenges; Information Technology Industry; China

September 26, 2018
Article

Ownership and Power Structure: Together at Last

By: Laura Alfaro, Nicholas Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew Newman, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen

Economists have largely ignored the deep interdependency between integration and delegation. This column describes a new theory of integration and delegation choices aimed at shedding light on how these distinct elements of organizational design interact. Contrary to... View Details

Keywords: Power; Organisational Design; Economics; Ownership; Organizational Design

Research Summary

Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting.

Forecasting firm-level sales is a key activity in top-down planning in most organizations. In the retailing industry, firms can use inventory and price to stimulate demand. Hence, standard time series methods for sales forecasting can be improved by incorporating... View Details

2017
Working Paper

Tort Reform and Innovation

By: Alberto Galasso and Hong Luo

Current academic and policy debates focus on the impact of tort reforms on physicians’ behavior and medical costs. This paper examines whether these reforms also affect incentives to develop new technologies. We develop a theoretical model which predicts that the... View Details

Keywords: Lawsuits and Litigation; Laws and Statutes; Innovation and Invention; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry

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