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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(854)
- News (79)
- Research (639)
- Events (14)
- Multimedia (4)
- Faculty Publications (632)
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- April 12, 2022
- Article
Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States
By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships
Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li, and et al. "Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States." e2113561119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (April 12, 2022). (See full author list here.)
- 2019
- Working Paper
Intelligent Artificiality: Algorithmic Microfoundations for Strategic Problem Solving
By: Mihnea Moldoveanu
This paper introduces algorithmic micro-foundations for formulating and solving strategic problems. It shows how the languages and disciplines of theoretical computer science, “artificial intelligence,” and computational complexity theory can be used to devise a set of... View Details
Keywords: Problems and Challenges; Analysis; Strategy; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Mathematical Methods
Moldoveanu, Mihnea. "Intelligent Artificiality: Algorithmic Microfoundations for Strategic Problem Solving." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-072, January 2019. (Revised February 2019.)
- October 2005 (Revised February 2010)
- Background Note
Calculating Free Cash Flows
By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein
Outlines the mechanics of calculating free cash flows from historical and proforma financial statements. Focuses on the mechanical process of transforming numbers from financial forecasts into cash flows. View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and David S. Scharfstein. "Calculating Free Cash Flows." Harvard Business School Background Note 206-028, October 2005. (Revised February 2010.)
- 19 Oct 2017
- Working Paper Summaries
Games of Threats
- November 2024
- Article
Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs
By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano
This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details
Ling, Xi, Wesley R. Hartmann, and Tomomichi Amano. "Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs." Management Science 70, no. 11 (November 2024): 7892–7910.
- February 2005
- Article
An Econometric Analysis of Inventory Turnover Performance in Retail Services
By: Vishal Gaur, Marshall L. Fisher and Ananth Raman
Gaur, Vishal, Marshall L. Fisher, and Ananth Raman. "An Econometric Analysis of Inventory Turnover Performance in Retail Services." Management Science 51, no. 2 (February 2005): 181–194.
- 1979
- Chapter
Research Methods and Data Analysis: The Challenge of Knowing How to Do What About Why
By: T. M. Amabile and W. DeJong
- 2017
- Working Paper
Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp
By: Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Yeon-Koo Che, Parag A. Pathak, Alvin E. Roth and Oliver Tercieux
In 2012, New Orleans Recovery School District (RSD) became the first U.S. district to unify charter and traditional public school admissions in a single-offer assignment mechanism known as OneApp. The RSD also became the first district to use a mechanism based on Top... View Details
Keywords: Education; Decision Choices and Conditions; Marketplace Matching; Mathematical Methods; Design
Abdulkadiroglu, Atila, Yeon-Koo Che, Parag A. Pathak, Alvin E. Roth, and Oliver Tercieux. "Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 23265, March 2017.
- Article
Assent-maximizing Social Choice
By: Katherine A. Baldiga and Jerry R. Green
We take a decision theoretic approach to the classic social choice problem, using data on the frequency of choice problems to compute social choice functions. We define a family of social choice rules that depend on the population's preferences and on the probability... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Theory; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods; Society
Baldiga, Katherine A., and Jerry R. Green. "Assent-maximizing Social Choice." Social Choice and Welfare 40, no. 2 (February 2013): 439–460.
- January 1994
- Case
Evolving Finance Function: Judy C. Lewent at Merck & Co., Inc.
By: Timothy A. Luehrman
This case examines the career path of Merck's CFO, Judy C. Lewent, as a way of tracing changes over time in Merck's finance function. It describes the adoption of innovative quantitative analytical models, changes in job definitions and in the organization of the... View Details
Keywords: Finance; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Organizational Design; Innovation and Invention; Pharmaceutical Industry
Luehrman, Timothy A. "Evolving Finance Function: Judy C. Lewent at Merck & Co., Inc." Harvard Business School Case 294-014, January 1994.
- 2023
- Article
Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations.
By: Edward McFowland III and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi
Social influence cannot be identified from purely observational data on social networks, because such influence is generically confounded with latent homophily, that is, with a node’s network partners being informative about the node’s attributes and therefore its... View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Homophily; Social Networks; Peer Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Power and Influence; Mathematical Methods
McFowland III, Edward, and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi. "Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 707–718.
- August 2020
- Technical Note
Comparing Two Groups: Sampling and t-Testing
This note describes sampling and t-tests, two fundamental statistical concepts. View Details
Keywords: Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Surveys; Mathematical Methods
Bojinov, Iavor I., Chiara Farronato, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Willy C. Shih, and Michael W. Toffel. "Comparing Two Groups: Sampling and t-Testing." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-044, August 2020.
- 2017
- Working Paper
Identifying Sources of Inefficiency in Health Care
By: Amitabh Chandra and Douglas O. Staiger
In medicine, the reasons for variation in treatment rates across hospitals serving similar patients are not well understood. Some interpret this variation as unwarranted and push standardization of care as a way of reducing allocative inefficiency. However, an... View Details
Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Performance Efficiency; Performance Productivity; Mathematical Methods
Chandra, Amitabh, and Douglas O. Staiger. "Identifying Sources of Inefficiency in Health Care." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 24035, November 2017.
- Fall 2012
- Article
Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence
By: Ozge Turut and Elie Ofek
We model an incumbent's decision to pursue radical or incremental innovation when facing a rival entrant. The radical innovation may yield lucrative financial returns but entails significant technological and market-related uncertainties. It is also particularly... View Details
Turut, Ozge, and Elie Ofek. "Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 12, no. 3 (Fall 2012).
- 2007
- Working Paper
The Political Economy of 'Natural' Disasters
By: Charles Cohen and Eric D. Werker
Natural disasters occur in a political space. Although events beyond our control may trigger a disaster, the level of government preparedness and response greatly determines the extent of suffering incurred by the affected population. We use a political economy model... View Details
Keywords: Policy; Government and Politics; Strategic Planning; Mathematical Methods; Natural Disasters; Welfare or Wellbeing
Cohen, Charles, and Eric D. Werker. "The Political Economy of 'Natural' Disasters." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-040, December 2007. (Revised November 2008.)
- 18 Sep 2006
- Research & Ideas
When Words Get in the Way: The Failure of Fiscal Language
arbitrary terms with no intrinsic meaning, a lesson that even economists have not learned. "On the General Relativity of Fiscal Language," a working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, provides a mathematical... View Details
Keywords: by Julia Hanna
- 23 Jan 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Transaction Costs and the Duration of Contracts
Keywords: by Alexander MacKay
- May–June 2018
- Article
Data Uncertainty in Markov Chains: Application to Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Medical Innovations
By: Joel Goh, Mohsen Bayati, Stefanos A. Zenios, Sundeep Singh and David Moore
Cost-effectiveness studies of medical innovations often suffer from data inadequacy. When Markov chains are used as a modeling framework for such studies, this data inadequacy can manifest itself as imprecision in the elements of the transition matrix. In this paper,... View Details
Keywords: Markov Chains; Cost Effectiveness; Medical Innovations; Colorectal Cancer; Health Care and Treatment; Cost vs Benefits; Innovation and Invention; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry
Goh, Joel, Mohsen Bayati, Stefanos A. Zenios, Sundeep Singh, and David Moore. "Data Uncertainty in Markov Chains: Application to Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Medical Innovations." Operations Research 66, no. 3 (May–June 2018): 697–715. (Winner, 2014 INFORMS Health Applications Society Pierskalla Award & Finalist, 2014 INFORMS George E. Nicholson student paper competition.)
- March 2011 (Revised November 2011)
- Teaching Note
Harmonic Hearing Co. (Brief Case)
By: Howard H. Stevenson and Craig Stephenson
Teaching Note for 4271. View Details
- January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
- Case
Forecasting the Great Depression
What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details
Keywords: History; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis
Friedman, Walter A. "Forecasting the Great Depression." Harvard Business School Case 708-046, January 2008. (Revised July 2009.)