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    • Research  (639)
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Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (854)
    • News  (79)
    • Research  (639)
    • Events  (14)
    • Multimedia  (4)
  • Faculty Publications  (632)
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  • April 12, 2022
  • Article

Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships
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Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li, and et al. "Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States." e2113561119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (April 12, 2022). (See full author list here.)
  • 2019
  • Working Paper

Intelligent Artificiality: Algorithmic Microfoundations for Strategic Problem Solving

By: Mihnea Moldoveanu
This paper introduces algorithmic micro-foundations for formulating and solving strategic problems. It shows how the languages and disciplines of theoretical computer science, “artificial intelligence,” and computational complexity theory can be used to devise a set of... View Details
Keywords: Problems and Challenges; Analysis; Strategy; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Mathematical Methods
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Moldoveanu, Mihnea. "Intelligent Artificiality: Algorithmic Microfoundations for Strategic Problem Solving." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-072, January 2019. (Revised February 2019.)
  • October 2005 (Revised February 2010)
  • Background Note

Calculating Free Cash Flows

By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein
Outlines the mechanics of calculating free cash flows from historical and proforma financial statements. Focuses on the mechanical process of transforming numbers from financial forecasts into cash flows. View Details
Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Mathematical Methods
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Greenwood, Robin, and David S. Scharfstein. "Calculating Free Cash Flows." Harvard Business School Background Note 206-028, October 2005. (Revised February 2010.)
  • 19 Oct 2017
  • Working Paper Summaries

Games of Threats

Keywords: by Elon Kohlberg and Abraham Neyman; Education
  • November 2024
  • Article

Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs

By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano
This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details
Keywords: Econometrics; Casual Inference; Marketing; Economics; Advertising; Mathematical Methods
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Ling, Xi, Wesley R. Hartmann, and Tomomichi Amano. "Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs." Management Science 70, no. 11 (November 2024): 7892–7910.
  • February 2005
  • Article

An Econometric Analysis of Inventory Turnover Performance in Retail Services

By: Vishal Gaur, Marshall L. Fisher and Ananth Raman
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Assets; Performance; Sales; Retail Industry
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Gaur, Vishal, Marshall L. Fisher, and Ananth Raman. "An Econometric Analysis of Inventory Turnover Performance in Retail Services." Management Science 51, no. 2 (February 2005): 181–194.
  • 1979
  • Chapter

Research Methods and Data Analysis: The Challenge of Knowing How to Do What About Why

By: T. M. Amabile and W. DeJong
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Knowledge Acquisition; Knowledge Management; Knowledge Use and Leverage
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Amabile, T. M., and W. DeJong. "Research Methods and Data Analysis: The Challenge of Knowing How to Do What About Why." In Psychology and Life. 10th ed. Edited by P. G. Zimbardo. Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman and Company, 1979.
  • 2017
  • Working Paper

Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp

By: Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Yeon-Koo Che, Parag A. Pathak, Alvin E. Roth and Oliver Tercieux
In 2012, New Orleans Recovery School District (RSD) became the first U.S. district to unify charter and traditional public school admissions in a single-offer assignment mechanism known as OneApp. The RSD also became the first district to use a mechanism based on Top... View Details
Keywords: Education; Decision Choices and Conditions; Marketplace Matching; Mathematical Methods; Design
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Abdulkadiroglu, Atila, Yeon-Koo Che, Parag A. Pathak, Alvin E. Roth, and Oliver Tercieux. "Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 23265, March 2017.
  • Article

Assent-maximizing Social Choice

By: Katherine A. Baldiga and Jerry R. Green
We take a decision theoretic approach to the classic social choice problem, using data on the frequency of choice problems to compute social choice functions. We define a family of social choice rules that depend on the population's preferences and on the probability... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Theory; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods; Society
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Baldiga, Katherine A., and Jerry R. Green. "Assent-maximizing Social Choice." Social Choice and Welfare 40, no. 2 (February 2013): 439–460.
  • January 1994
  • Case

Evolving Finance Function: Judy C. Lewent at Merck & Co., Inc.

By: Timothy A. Luehrman
This case examines the career path of Merck's CFO, Judy C. Lewent, as a way of tracing changes over time in Merck's finance function. It describes the adoption of innovative quantitative analytical models, changes in job definitions and in the organization of the... View Details
Keywords: Finance; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Organizational Design; Innovation and Invention; Pharmaceutical Industry
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Luehrman, Timothy A. "Evolving Finance Function: Judy C. Lewent at Merck & Co., Inc." Harvard Business School Case 294-014, January 1994.
  • 2023
  • Article

Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations.

By: Edward McFowland III and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi
Social influence cannot be identified from purely observational data on social networks, because such influence is generically confounded with latent homophily, that is, with a node’s network partners being informative about the node’s attributes and therefore its... View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Homophily; Social Networks; Peer Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Power and Influence; Mathematical Methods
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McFowland III, Edward, and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi. "Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 707–718.
  • August 2020
  • Technical Note

Comparing Two Groups: Sampling and t-Testing

By: Iavor I Bojinov, Chiara Farronato, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Willy C. Shih and Michael W. Toffel
This note describes sampling and t-tests, two fundamental statistical concepts. View Details
Keywords: Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Surveys; Mathematical Methods
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Bojinov, Iavor I., Chiara Farronato, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Willy C. Shih, and Michael W. Toffel. "Comparing Two Groups: Sampling and t-Testing." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-044, August 2020.
  • 2017
  • Working Paper

Identifying Sources of Inefficiency in Health Care

By: Amitabh Chandra and Douglas O. Staiger
In medicine, the reasons for variation in treatment rates across hospitals serving similar patients are not well understood. Some interpret this variation as unwarranted and push standardization of care as a way of reducing allocative inefficiency. However, an... View Details
Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Performance Efficiency; Performance Productivity; Mathematical Methods
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Chandra, Amitabh, and Douglas O. Staiger. "Identifying Sources of Inefficiency in Health Care." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 24035, November 2017.
  • Fall 2012
  • Article

Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence

By: Ozge Turut and Elie Ofek
We model an incumbent's decision to pursue radical or incremental innovation when facing a rival entrant. The radical innovation may yield lucrative financial returns but entails significant technological and market-related uncertainties. It is also particularly... View Details
Keywords: Competition; Innovation Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Markets; Mathematical Methods
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Turut, Ozge, and Elie Ofek. "Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 12, no. 3 (Fall 2012).
  • 2007
  • Working Paper

The Political Economy of 'Natural' Disasters

By: Charles Cohen and Eric D. Werker
Natural disasters occur in a political space. Although events beyond our control may trigger a disaster, the level of government preparedness and response greatly determines the extent of suffering incurred by the affected population. We use a political economy model... View Details
Keywords: Policy; Government and Politics; Strategic Planning; Mathematical Methods; Natural Disasters; Welfare or Wellbeing
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Cohen, Charles, and Eric D. Werker. "The Political Economy of 'Natural' Disasters." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-040, December 2007. (Revised November 2008.)
  • 18 Sep 2006
  • Research & Ideas

When Words Get in the Way: The Failure of Fiscal Language

arbitrary terms with no intrinsic meaning, a lesson that even economists have not learned. "On the General Relativity of Fiscal Language," a working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, provides a mathematical... View Details
Keywords: by Julia Hanna
  • 23 Jan 2018
  • Working Paper Summaries

Transaction Costs and the Duration of Contracts

Keywords: by Alexander MacKay
  • May–June 2018
  • Article

Data Uncertainty in Markov Chains: Application to Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Medical Innovations

By: Joel Goh, Mohsen Bayati, Stefanos A. Zenios, Sundeep Singh and David Moore
Cost-effectiveness studies of medical innovations often suffer from data inadequacy. When Markov chains are used as a modeling framework for such studies, this data inadequacy can manifest itself as imprecision in the elements of the transition matrix. In this paper,... View Details
Keywords: Markov Chains; Cost Effectiveness; Medical Innovations; Colorectal Cancer; Health Care and Treatment; Cost vs Benefits; Innovation and Invention; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry
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Goh, Joel, Mohsen Bayati, Stefanos A. Zenios, Sundeep Singh, and David Moore. "Data Uncertainty in Markov Chains: Application to Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Medical Innovations." Operations Research 66, no. 3 (May–June 2018): 697–715. (Winner, 2014 INFORMS Health Applications Society Pierskalla Award & Finalist, 2014 INFORMS George E. Nicholson student paper competition.)
  • March 2011 (Revised November 2011)
  • Teaching Note

Harmonic Hearing Co. (Brief Case)

By: Howard H. Stevenson and Craig Stephenson
Teaching Note for 4271. View Details
Keywords: Debts; Quantitative Analysis; Financing; Entrepreneurial Finance; Development Stage Enterprises; Small & Medium-sized Enterprises; Cash Flow; Mathematical Methods; Entrepreneurship; Financing and Loans; Borrowing and Debt
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Stevenson, Howard H., and Craig Stephenson. "Harmonic Hearing Co. (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 114-272, March 2011. (Revised November 2011.)
  • January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
  • Case

Forecasting the Great Depression

By: Walter A. Friedman
What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details
Keywords: History; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis
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Friedman, Walter A. "Forecasting the Great Depression." Harvard Business School Case 708-046, January 2008. (Revised July 2009.)
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