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All HBS Web
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- Faculty Publications (151)
- January–February 2021
- Article
Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality
By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both...
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Keywords:
Accounting Quality;
Earnings Quality;
Stock Returns;
Investment Strategy;
Accounting;
Business Earnings;
Quality;
Investment Return;
Investment;
Strategy
Chen, Wen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan, and George Serafeim. "Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 48, nos. 1-2 (January–February 2021): 70–101.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log-linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the...
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Keywords:
Expected Returns;
Present Value;
Investment Return;
Accounting;
Valuation;
Information;
Framework
Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-081, January 2021.
- January 2021
- Article
ETF Activity and Informational Efficiency of Underlying Securities
By: Lawrence Glosten, Suresh Nallareddy and Yuan Zou
This paper investigates the effect of exchange-traded funds’ (ETFs’) activity on the short-run informational efficiency of their underlying securities. We find that ETF activity increases short-run informational efficiency for stocks with weak information environments....
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Glosten, Lawrence, Suresh Nallareddy, and Yuan Zou. "ETF Activity and Informational Efficiency of Underlying Securities." Management Science 67, no. 1 (January 2021): 22–47.
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation
By: Matthias Regier and Ethan Rouen
We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between lagged...
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Regier, Matthias, and Ethan Rouen. "The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-047, October 2020. (Revised March 2022.)
- October 2020
- Article
IQ from IP: Simplifying Search in Portfolio Choice
By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
Using a novel database that tracks web traffic on the SEC’s EDGAR servers between 2004 and 2015, we show that mutual fund managers gather information on a very particular subset of firms and insiders, and their surveillance is very persistent over time. This tracking...
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Keywords:
Tracked Trades;
Return Predictability;
Institutional Trading;
Insider Trading;
Institutional Investing;
Information;
Investment Portfolio;
Decisions;
Management
Chen, Huaizhi, Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun, Dong Lou, and Christopher J. Malloy. "IQ from IP: Simplifying Search in Portfolio Choice." Journal of Financial Economics 138, no. 1 (October 2020): 118–137. (Winner of the First Prize, Crowell Memorial Award for Best Paper in Quantitative Investments, PanAgora Asset Management, 2019.)
- August 2020
- Article
Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,...
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Keywords:
Consumption-based Habit Formation;
Consumption Euler Equation;
Time-varying Risk Premia;
Inflation Dynamics;
Bond-stock Correlation;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Bonds;
Macroeconomics
Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Journal of Political Economy 128, no. 8 (August 2020): 3148–3185.
- May–June 2020
- Article
Interfirm Ties Between Ventures and Limited Partners of Venture Capital Funds: Performance Effects in Financial Markets
By: Umit Ozmel, M. Deniz Yavuz, Timothy E. Trombley and Ranjay Gulati
We argue that strong indirect ties are conducive to the transfer of private information, which provides an advantage in identifying profitable investment opportunities. In our context, a strong indirect tie is generated between an investor and a focal firm if the...
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Ozmel, Umit, M. Deniz Yavuz, Timothy E. Trombley, and Ranjay Gulati. "Interfirm Ties Between Ventures and Limited Partners of Venture Capital Funds: Performance Effects in Financial Markets." Organization Science 31, no. 3 (May–June 2020): 698–719.
- 2020
- Working Paper
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S....
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Stock Returns;
Health Pandemics;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Forecasting and Prediction
Alfaro, Laura, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26950, April 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
- February 2020
- Case
Highfields Capital and McDonald's
By: Mark Egan and Robin Greenwood
McDonald’s reported its fifth consecutive quarter of declining same-store sales growth in early 2015. Despite McDonald’s recent poor performance, Jonathon S. Jacobson, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Boston-based Highfields Capital Management, had initiated...
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Keywords:
McDonald's;
Stocks;
Performance Improvement;
Operations;
Finance;
Restructuring;
Value Creation;
Financial Services Industry
Egan, Mark, and Robin Greenwood. "Highfields Capital and McDonald's." Harvard Business School Case 220-061, February 2020.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds
By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang
We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of...
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Keywords:
Stock Market Expectations;
Demand Estimation;
Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs);
Demand and Consumers;
Investment;
United States
Egan, Mark, Alexander J. MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26608, January 2020. (Accepted at the Review of Economic Studies. Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-122, May 2020. Direct download. Revised July 2021.)
- November 2019
- Case
Apple, Einhorn, and iPrefs (Abridged)
By: Carliss Y. Baldwin and W. Carl Kester
In March 2013, Apple Computer has a very large cash balance, and is under pressure to return cash to shareholders. Hedge fund manager David Einhorn thinks Apple can "unlock value" by issuing perpetual preferred stock, dubbed iPrefs. Henry Blodget, CEO of Business...
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Baldwin, Carliss Y., and W. Carl Kester. "Apple, Einhorn, and iPrefs (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 220-043, November 2019.
- March 2019 (Revised May 2019)
- Case
Growth Investing at Totem Point
By: Suraj Srinivasan, Charles C.Y. Wang and Jonah Goldberg
The case describes the investment of hedge fund, Totem Point Management in Analog Semiconductors (ADI) as a way to discuss forecasting and valuation in growth companies. In June 2016, hedge fund Totem Point invested in ADI at around $55 a share. In general, Totem Point...
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Srinivasan, Suraj, Charles C.Y. Wang, and Jonah Goldberg. "Growth Investing at Totem Point." Harvard Business School Case 119-091, March 2019. (Revised May 2019.)
- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio...
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Keywords:
Bubble;
Market Efficiency;
Predictability;
Price Bubble;
Stocks;
Price;
Forecasting and Prediction
Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- February 2018 (Revised August 2018)
- Case
Blue Haven Initiative: The PEGAfrica Investment
By: Vikram S. Gandhi, Caitlin Reimers Brumme and Amram Migdal
This case examines Blue Haven Initiative (BHI), an impact investing fund and family office, and one of its investments, PEGAfrica (PEG). BHI founder Liesel Pritzker Simmons’ motivations for using her family wealth to start a family office focused on impact investing,...
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Keywords:
Impact Investing;
Family Office;
Development;
International Development;
International Development Investing;
Development Fund;
Sustainability;
Solar Energy;
Solar;
Pay As You Go;
PAYG;
MFI;
Social Venture;
Business Ventures;
Acquisition;
Business Growth and Maturation;
Business Startups;
Economics;
Development Economics;
Energy;
Energy Conservation;
Energy Sources;
Renewable Energy;
Social Entrepreneurship;
Finance;
Assets;
Asset Pricing;
Capital;
Capital Budgeting;
Capital Structure;
Venture Capital;
Cash;
Cash Flow;
Currency;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Equity;
Private Equity;
Financial Instruments;
Debt Securities;
Stock Shares;
Financing and Loans;
Microfinance;
International Finance;
Investment;
Investment Return;
Investment Activism;
Investment Funds;
Investment Portfolio;
Price;
Geography;
Geographic Location;
Emerging Markets;
Ownership;
Ownership Stake;
Private Ownership;
Social Enterprise;
Value;
Valuation;
Value Creation;
Energy Industry;
Financial Services Industry;
Green Technology Industry;
Africa;
United States
Gandhi, Vikram S., Caitlin Reimers Brumme, and Amram Migdal. "Blue Haven Initiative: The PEGAfrica Investment." Harvard Business School Case 318-003, February 2018. (Revised August 2018.)
- September 2017
- Article
The Real Effects of Capital Controls: Firm-Level Evidence from a Policy Experiment
By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari and Fabio Kanczuk
Emerging-market governments adopted capital control taxes to manage the massive surge in foreign capital inflows in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Theory suggests that the imposition of capital controls can drive up the cost of capital and curb...
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Keywords:
Capital Controls;
Discriminatory Taxation;
International Investment Barriers;
Exports;
Debt;
Cost of Capital;
Taxation;
Investment;
Borrowing and Debt;
Equity;
Brazil
Alfaro, Laura, Anusha Chari, and Fabio Kanczuk. "The Real Effects of Capital Controls: Firm-Level Evidence from a Policy Experiment." Journal of International Economics 108 (September 2017): 191–210. (Also see NBER Working Paper 20726.
See comment in Brookings Series: The Hutchins Roundup.
See also, feature in NBER Digest March 2015 issue. )
- 2017
- Article
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...
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Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
- May 2017
- Teaching Note
Partners Group: Ain't No Mountain High Enough
Partners Group (PG), a Swiss-based PE manager, initiated a series of strategic shifts and evolved from a predominately fund-of-funds manager into a large, multi-asset class PE firm focused on direct investments. PG was the first PE firm to go public in 2006. A number...
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- Spring 2017
- Comment
Commentary on Implied Cost of Equity Capital Estimates as Predictors of Accounting Returns and Stock Returns
Wang, Charles C.Y. "Commentary on Implied Cost of Equity Capital Estimates as Predictors of Accounting Returns and Stock Returns." Journal of Financial Reporting 2, no. 1 (Spring 2017): 95–106.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors
By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang
This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country...
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Keywords:
Investment Portfolio;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Diversification;
Capital Markets;
Global Range
Viceira, Luis M., and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang. "Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-085, March 2017. (Revised July 2018.)
- 2017
- Working Paper
Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers
By: Elisabeth Kempf, Alberto Manconi and Oliver Spalt
Learning by doing matters for professional investors. We develop a new methodology to show that mutual fund managers outperform in industries where they have obtained experience on the job. The key to our identification strategy is that we look "inside" funds and...
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Kempf, Elisabeth, Alberto Manconi, and Oliver Spalt. "Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 2124896, May 2017.