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All HBS Web
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- Faculty Publications (82)
- June 2018 (Revised April 2021)
- Case
Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (A)
By: Marco Di Maggio, Benjamin C. Esty and Gregory Saldutte
Snap, the disappearing message app, went public at $17 per share on March 2, 2017, making its two 20-something founders the youngest self-made billionaires in the country. Over the next three weeks, 14 analysts made investment recommendations on Snap: two with buy...
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Keywords:
Sell-side Analysts;
Underwriters;
Investment Banking;
Social Network;
Discounted Cash Flow;
Cost Of Capital;
Conflicts Of Interest;
Corporate Governance;
Advertising;
Quiet Period;
"DCF Valuation,";
Business Startups;
Digital Marketing;
Initial Public Offering;
Information Infrastructure;
Valuation;
Venture Capital;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Social Media;
Advertising Industry;
Entertainment and Recreation Industry;
Web Services Industry;
United States;
California
Di Maggio, Marco, Benjamin C. Esty, and Gregory Saldutte. "Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (A)." Harvard Business School Case 218-095, June 2018. (Revised April 2021.)
- May 2018
- Article
Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change
By: Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca
Data from digital platforms have the potential to improve our understanding of gentrification and enable new measures of how neighborhoods change in close to real time. Combining data on businesses from Yelp with data on gentrification from the Census, Federal Housing...
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Keywords:
Forecasting Models;
Simulation Methods;
Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, And Changes;
Geographic Location;
Local Range;
Transition;
Analytics and Data Science;
Measurement and Metrics;
Economic Growth;
Forecasting and Prediction
Glaeser, Edward L., Hyunjin Kim, and Michael Luca. "Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change." AEA Papers and Proceedings 108 (May 2018): 77–82.
- March 2017 (Revised March 2022)
- Case
Flashion: Art vs. Science in Fashion Retailing
By: Kris Ferreira and Karim R. Lakhani
Kate Wilson, retail analytics manager at Flashion, a fashion flash-sale site, is tasked with developing analytics to optimize pricing for first-exposure products on the site. Many in the industry have relied on years of experience and intuition to determine pricing—can...
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Keywords:
Analytics;
Pricing;
Data;
Service Operations;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Internet and the Web;
Technology Adoption;
Mathematical Methods;
Decision Making;
E-commerce;
Retail Industry;
Fashion Industry;
United States
Ferreira, Kris, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Flashion: Art vs. Science in Fashion Retailing." Harvard Business School Case 617-059, March 2017. (Revised March 2022.)
- January 2017
- Article
Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns
By: Tom Y. Chang, Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon and Eugene F. Soltes
We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually...
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Chang, Tom Y., Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon, and Eugene F. Soltes. "Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns." Review of Financial Studies 30, no. 1 (January 2017): 281–323.
- November 2016 (Revised April 2018)
- Case
reMarkable: e-Writing the Future
By: Elie Ofek and Curtis Hsu
Magnus Wanberg is the creator of reMarkable, a breakthrough e-writer device set apart from similar products on the market by having solved the frustrating “slow ink” problem typically experienced on pen-based electronic devices, thus providing a “pen and paper” like...
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Keywords:
Entrepreneurial Marketing;
Innovation Management;
Go To Market Strategy;
Marketing Plan;
Target Market;
Digital Devices;
Consumer Electronics;
Forecasting;
Information Technology;
Marketing Strategy;
Innovation and Management;
Marketing Channels;
Entrepreneurship;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Product Marketing;
Product Development;
Electronics Industry
Ofek, Elie, and Curtis Hsu. "reMarkable: e-Writing the Future." Harvard Business School Case 517-018, November 2016. (Revised April 2018.)
- Winter 2016
- Article
Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization
By: Kris J. Ferreira, Bin Hong Alex Lee and David Simchi-Levi
We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an example of how a retailer can use its wealth of data to optimize pricing decisions on a daily basis. Rue La La is in the online fashion sample sales industry, where they offer extremely limited-time...
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Ferreira, Kris J., Bin Hong Alex Lee, and David Simchi-Levi. "Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18, no. 1 (Winter 2016): 69–88.
- 2015
- Working Paper
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross...
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Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
- 2015
- Working Paper
The Wisdom of Crowds in Operations: Forecasting Using Prediction Markets
By: Achal Bassamboo, Ruomeng Cui and Antonio Moreno
Prediction is an important activity in various business processes, but it becomes difficult when historical information is not available, such as forecasting demand of a new product. One approach that can be applied in such situations is to crowdsource opinions from...
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Keywords:
Wisdom Of Crowds;
Demand Forecasting;
Price Forecasting;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Social and Collaborative Networks;
Size;
Performance
Bassamboo, Achal, Ruomeng Cui, and Antonio Moreno. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Operations: Forecasting Using Prediction Markets." Working Paper, October 2015.
- Article
Waves in Ship Prices and Investment
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low...
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Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment." Quarterly Journal of Economics 130, no. 1 (February 2015): 55–109.
- June 2013
- Article
Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the...
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Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 6 (June 2013): 1483–1525. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- May 2012
- Article
Complicated Firms
By: Lauren Cohen and Dong Lou
We exploit a novel setting in which the same piece of information affects two sets of firms: one set of firms requires straightforward processing to update prices, while the other set requires more complicated analyses to incorporate the same piece of information into...
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Keywords:
Investment Portfolio;
Information;
Price;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Complexity;
Mathematical Methods
Cohen, Lauren, and Dong Lou. "Complicated Firms." Journal of Financial Economics 104, no. 2 (May 2012). (Winner of Istanbul Stock Exchange 25th Anniversary Best Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Istanbul Stock Exchange. Winner of Center for Research in Security Prices Forum. Best Paper Prize presented by University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Winner of Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality. Academic Grant presented by Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality. Winner of Crowell Memorial Prize For the best paper on quantitative investing presented by PanAgora Asset Management, Inc.)
- March 2012 (Revised October 2012)
- Case
Hayman Capital Management
By: Robin Greenwood, Julie Messina and Jared Dourdeville
In late December 2011, Hayman Capital founder and portfolio manager Kyle Bass was reviewing Japanese government budget projections for 2012. The projections appeared contrary to Hayman Capital's views on Japan, where the fund had built a bearish position. Japan had the...
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Keywords:
Investment Management;
Speculative Bubbles;
Japan;
Government Policy;
Financial Management;
Price Bubble;
Credit;
Financial Strategy;
Behavioral Finance;
Government and Politics;
Macroeconomics;
Financial Services Industry;
Japan
Greenwood, Robin, Julie Messina, and Jared Dourdeville. "Hayman Capital Management." Harvard Business School Case 212-091, March 2012. (Revised October 2012.)
- December 2011
- Article
Stock Price Fragility
By: Robin Greenwood and David Thesmar
We investigate the relationship between ownership structure of financial assets and non-fundamental risk. We define an asset to be fragile if it is susceptible to non-fundamental trading shocks. An asset can be fragile because of concentrated ownership or because its...
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Keywords:
Stocks;
Price;
Ownership;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Assets;
System Shocks;
Financial Liquidity;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Investment Return;
Volatility;
Relationships;
United States
Greenwood, Robin, and David Thesmar. "Stock Price Fragility." Journal of Financial Economics 102, no. 3 (December 2011): 471–490.
- July – August 2011
- Article
What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?
A firm's competitive environment, its strategic choices, and its internal capabilities are considered important determinants of its future performance. Yet there is little evidence on whether analysts' forecasts of firm performance actually reflect any of these factors...
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Keywords:
Competition;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Industry Growth;
Judgments;
Performance;
Valuation;
Price;
Quality;
Innovation and Invention;
Organizational Culture;
Competency and Skills;
Surveys
Groysberg, Boris, Paul Healy, Nitin Nohria, and George Serafeim. "What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?" Financial Analysts Journal 67, no. 4 (July–August 2011).
- 2012
- Working Paper
Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the...
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Keywords:
Price;
Credit;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Investment Return;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Bonds;
Market Design;
Cost of Capital;
Mathematical Methods;
System Shocks
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-065, January 2011. (Revised September 2012, Internet Appendix Here.)
- 2010
- Other Unpublished Work
Share Issuance and Factor Timing
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel Hanson
We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Equity;
Stocks;
Stock Shares;
Investment Return;
Investment Portfolio;
Price;
Performance Evaluation
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel Hanson. "Share Issuance and Factor Timing." December 2010. (Appendix. Previously titled "Characteristic Timing," NBER Working Paper Series, No. 15948.)
- November 2010 (Revised May 2014)
- Case
Dow's Bid for Rohm and Haas
By: Benjamin C. Esty and David Lane
This case analyzes Dow Chemical Company's proposed acquisition of Rohm and Haas in 2008. The $18.8 billion acquisition was part of Dow's strategic transformation from a slow-growth, low-margin, and cyclical producer of basic chemicals into a higher-growth,...
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Keywords:
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Financial Crisis;
Capital Structure;
Financial Condition;
Financial Management;
Contracts;
Lawsuits and Litigation;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Valuation;
Chemical Industry
Esty, Benjamin C., and David Lane. "Dow's Bid for Rohm and Haas." Harvard Business School Case 211-020, November 2010. (Revised May 2014.)
- 2014
- Working Paper
Financing Risk and Innovation
By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf
We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying...
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Keywords:
Business Startups;
Venture Capital;
Financial Markets;
Financing and Loans;
Investment;
Price Bubble;
Innovation and Invention;
Technological Innovation;
Risk and Uncertainty
Nanda, Ramana, and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf. "Financing Risk and Innovation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-013, August 2010. (Revised March 2014.)
- July 2010 (Revised December 2011)
- Background Note
Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis
By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
Pricing is one of the most difficult decisions marketers make and the one with the most direct and immediate impact on the firm's financial position. This toolkit will introduce the fundamental terminology and calculations associated with pricing and profitability...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Price;
Profit;
Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques;
Marketing Strategy;
Demand and Consumers;
Measurement and Metrics;
Strategic Planning;
Mathematical Methods;
Retail Industry
Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 511-028, July 2010. (Revised December 2011.)
- 2010
- Book
The New Science of Retailing: How Analytics Are Transforming the Supply Chain and Improving Performance
By: Marshall Fisher and Ananth Raman
Retailers today are drowning in data but lacking in insight: They have huge volumes of information at their disposal. But they're unsure of how to sort through it and use it to make smart decisions. The result? They're struggling with profit-sapping supply chain...
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Keywords:
Profit;
Knowledge Use and Leverage;
Logistics;
Supply Chain Management;
Mathematical Methods;
Retail Industry
Fisher, Marshall, and Ananth Raman. The New Science of Retailing: How Analytics Are Transforming the Supply Chain and Improving Performance. Harvard Business Press, 2010.