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October 2024
Article

Canary Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester

Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details

Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry

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2024
Working Paper

Behavioral Attenuation

By: Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea and Jeffrey Yang

We report a large-scale examination of behavioral attenuation: due to information-processing constraints, the elasticity of people’s decisions with respect to economic fundamentals is generally too small. We implement more than 30 experiments, 20 of which were... View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Behavioral Finance

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August 2024
Case

Iogen: Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors

By: George Serafeim, Charlotte Foody and John Mulliken

Brian Foody, CEO of Iogen Corporation, was an early leader in advanced biofuels, developing a range of technologies to transform agricultural waste into transportation fuel. With $100 million in revenue and 350 patents across various biofuel technologies, Iogen was... View Details

Keywords: Technology; Biofuel; Market Attractiveness; Decarbonization; Technological Innovation; Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Transformation; Market Entry and Exit; Strategy; Energy Industry; United States; United Kingdom

July–August 2024
Article

Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals

By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza

Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response, which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details

Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing Strategy

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2024
Working Paper

Learning to Cover: Online Learning and Optimization with Irreversible Decisions

By: Alexander Jacquillat and Michael Lingzhi Li

Keywords: Buildings and Facilities; AI and Machine Learning; Geographic Location; Strategic Planning

2025
Working Paper

Evaluations Amid Measurement Error: Determining the Optimal Timing for Workplace Interventions

By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Iavor I. Bojinov and Fiammetta Menchetti

Researchers have embraced factorial experiments to simultaneously evaluate multiple treatments, each with different levels. Typically, in large-scale factorial experiments, the primary objective is identifying the treatment with the largest causal effect, especially... View Details

Keywords: Factorial Designs; Fisher Randomizations; Rank Estimators; Employer Interventions; Causal Inference; Mathematical Methods; Performance Improvement

2024
Working Paper

Advancing Personalization: How to Experiment, Learn & Optimize

By: Aurelie Lemmens, Jason M.T. Roos, Sebastian Gabel, Eva Ascarza, Hernan Bruno, Elea McDonnell Feit, Brett Gordon, Ayelet Israeli, Carl F. Mela and Oded Netzer

Personalization has become the heartbeat of modern marketing. Advances in causal inference and machine learning enable companies to understand how the same marketing action can impact the choices of individual customers differently. This article provides an academic... View Details

Keywords: Personalization; Targeting; Experiments; Observational Studies; Policy Implementation; Policy Evaluation; Customization and Personalization; Marketing Strategy; AI and Machine Learning

June 2024 (Revised August 2024)
Case

Hospital for Special Surgery: Returning to a New Normal? (A)

By: Robert S. Huckman, Michael Lingzhi Li and Camille Gregory

Early on the morning of April 27, 2020, Justin Oppenheimer stood outside the entrance to the lobby of the Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) Pavilion Building with mixed emotions. On one hand, Oppenheimer, HSS’ Enterprise Chief Operating Officer and Chief Strategy... View Details

Keywords: Operations Management; Scheduling; Optimization; COVID-19; Health Care and Treatment; Operations; Customer Focus and Relationships; Disruption; Health Industry; United States

June 2024
Article

Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms

By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers

Many scarce public resources are allocated at below-market-clearing prices, and sometimes for free. Such "non-market" mechanisms sacrifice some surplus, yet they can potentially improve equity. We develop a model of mechanism design with redistributive concerns. Agents... View Details

Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Welfare; Mathematical Methods; Market Design; Cost vs Benefits

May 2024
Case

Pernod Ricard: Uncorking Digital Transformation

By: Iavor Bojinov, Edward McFowland III, François Candelon, Nikolina Jonsson and Emer Moloney

This case study explores the opportunities and challenges of the digital transformation journey of French wine and spirits company Pernod Ricard. As part of the transformation, the company launched four key digital programs (KDPs) aimed at using data and artificial... View Details

Keywords: Business Organization; Business Divisions; Talent and Talent Management; Global Strategy; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Digital Transformation; Digital Strategy; Advertising; Sales; Organizational Culture; Product Development; Decision Making; Technology Adoption; Alignment; Expansion; Food and Beverage Industry; France; Europe

March 2024
Case

Biomanufacturing Decentralization by Stämm

By: Paul A. Gompers, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago and Mariana Cal

In Buenos Aires, Argentina, cousins Llamazares and D’Alvia founded Stämm, a startup based on the idea of decentralizing biomanufacturing processes and downsizing biotech facilities. After raising its seed and series A rounds, and while finalizing its series B round in... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Business Startups; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Selection and Staffing; Technological Innovation; Science-Based Business; Business Strategy; Commercialization; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Launch; Research and Development; Biotechnology Industry; Latin America; South America; Argentina; Buenos Aires

March 2024
Case

From 'BIG' Ideas to Sustainable Impact at ICL Group (A)

By: Linda A. Hill and Lydia Begag

In the summer of 2023, Eduard (“Eddie”) Croitoru, Vice President (VP) of ICL Group (“ICL”) Corporate Initiatives, was reflecting on ICL’s internal ideation program, the Business Innovation for Growth (BIG) Accelerator. When Raviv Zoller became the CEO of ICL in 2018,... View Details

March 2024 (Revised January 2025)
Case

Hippo: Weathering the Storm of the Home Insurance Crisis

By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan

Rick McCathron, CEO of Hippo, considered how the firm’s underwriting model could account for the effects of climate change. Along with providing smart home packages, targeting risk-friendly customers, and using data-driven pricing, the Insurtech used technologically... View Details

March 2024 (Revised June 2025)
Teaching Note

CoPilot(s): Generative AI at Microsoft and GitHub

By: Frank Nagle and Maria P. Roche

This teaching note is the companion to case N9-624-010 CoPilot(s): Generative AI at Microsoft and GitHub, which takes place in late 2021. The case briefly describes the history of both GitHub and Microsoft with a particular focus on open source software (OSS)—software... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; AI and Machine Learning; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Product Launch; Open Source Distribution; Product Development; Commercialization; Competition; Resource Allocation; Technology Industry

March 2024
Case

Unintended Consequences of Algorithmic Personalization

By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli

“Unintended Consequences of Algorithmic Personalization” (HBS No. 524-052) investigates algorithmic bias in marketing through four case studies featuring Apple, Uber, Facebook, and Amazon. Each study presents scenarios where these companies faced public criticism for... View Details

Keywords: Race; Gender; Marketing; Diversity; Customer Relationship Management; Prejudice and Bias; Customization and Personalization; Technology Industry; Retail Industry; United States

February 2024
Article

An Economic Framework for Vaccine Prioritization

By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Eric Budish, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers

We propose an economic framework for determining the optimal allocation of a scarce supply of vaccines that become gradually available during a public health crisis, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Agents differ in observable and unobservable characteristics, and the... View Details

Keywords: Vaccine; Fairness; Public Finance; Public Goods; Allocation Problems; Allocative Efficiency; Allocation Rules; Social Welfare; Pandemics; Inequality; COVID-19; COVID-19 Pandemic; Public Sector; Resource Allocation; Market Design; Marketplace Matching; Public Administration Industry

2025
Working Paper

Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration in the Presence of Outliers

By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Kris Ferreira, Maya Balakrishnan and Jordan Tong

Problem definition: While artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms may perform well on data that are representative of the training set (inliers), they may err when extrapolating on non-representative data (outliers). How can humans and algorithms work together to make... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions

2024
Case

Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations (A)

By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian

This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Negotiation; Environmental Regulation; International Relations; Leadership

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2024
Case

Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations (B)

By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian

This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Negotiation; Environmental Regulation; International Relations; Leadership

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2024
Case

Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations: Figueres the Negotiator (C)

By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian

This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Negotiation; Environmental Management; International Relations; Leadership

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