Publications

April 2015
Article

Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System

By: Adi Sunderam

Many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid-2000s focus on money demand. This paper asks whether the short-term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money. We first present a simple model where households demand money... View Details

Keywords: Financial Instruments; Banks and Banking

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Fall 2013
Article

Shifts in U.S. Federal Reserve Goals and Tactics for Monetary Policy: A Role for Penitence?

By: Julio J. Rotemberg

This paper considers some of the large changes in the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy. It shows that, in some important cases, critics who were successful in arguing that past Fed approaches were responsible for mistakes that caused harm succeeded in... View Details

Keywords: Central Banking; Policy; United States

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20 Apr 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Corporate Misgovernance at the World Bank

Keywords: by Ashwin Kaja & Eric Werker

20 Apr 2009
Research & Ideas

Misgovernance at the World Bank

international appropriations committee. Kaja and Werker's research also suggests the political dynamics and potential for conflicts of interest that may occur on other large, intergovernmental appropriations committees such as those at the European Union, the... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

January 2009 (Revised December 2017)
Case

Who Broke the Bank of England?

By: Niall Ferguson and Jonathan Schlefer

In the summer of 1992, hedge fund manager George Soros was contemplating the possibility that the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) would break down. Designed to pave the way for a full-scale European Monetary Union, the ERM was a system of fixed exchange rates... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Currency Exchange Rate; Investment; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Financial Services Industry; European Union

28 Sep 2009
Research & Ideas

Improving Accountability at the World Bank

Editor's Note: As an institution charged with fighting global poverty, the World Bank has found itself on the firing line of late. Critics cite a persistent lack of transparency and failure to include local insights in decision-making... View Details

Keywords: by Alnoor Ebrahim

17 Oct 2013
Research & Ideas

Reserve Bank Governor Discusses India’s Financial Opportunities

phase." A month after becoming the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Rajan came to HBS to deliver the 2013 Leatherbee Lecture, "India: The Opportunities and Challenges Ahead." In addition to running India's central... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel

March–April 2015
Article

The Almighty Ruble

By: Debora L. Spar

At 1 AM Moscow time on December 16, Russia's central bank announced a massive hike in the country's interest rate, from 10.5% to 17%. It's not clear how Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his colleagues could realistically have expected to achieve anything by hiking the... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Economy; Policy; Currency; Interest Rates; Sovereign Finance; Russia

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November 2013 (Revised August 2015)
Case

Janet Yellen and the Bernanke Fed

By: Matthew Weinzierl and Katrina Flanagan

The unelected Federal Reserve Chairman exerts exceptional influence over the U.S., in fact global, economy. As Janet Yellen prepared to take over the position, she would look back on Chairman Bernanke's tenure during the Great Recession. During that time, Bernanke was... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Nominal Rigidity And Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply; Phillips Curve; Taylor Rule; Central Bank Independence; Central Banking; Money; Policy; Financial Crisis; Power and Influence; Banking Industry; Banking Industry; United States

March 2013
Case

Currency Wars

By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White

In February 2013, the G-20 finance ministers met in Moscow, Russia to discuss the rising anxieties over a potential international currency war. It was speculated that certain countries were purposely devaluing their currencies in order to improve their competitiveness... View Details

Keywords: Currency; Competitiveness; Trade Policy; Devaluation; Exchange Rate; Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; Inflation Targeting; Capital Flows; Central Banking; Currency Exchange Rate; Competitive Strategy; Emerging Markets; Policy; Trade; Conflict and Resolution; Banking Industry; Banking Industry; Moscow

2022
Working Paper

The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand

In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details

Keywords: United States Treasury; Monetary Policy; Yield Curve; Central Banking; Interest Rates; Valuation

30 Aug 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Incentivizing Calculated Risk-Taking: Evidence from an Experiment with Commercial Bank Loan Officers

Keywords: by Shawn Cole, Martin Kanz & Leora Klapper

May 2020
Article

How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel

By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Christopher Palmer

We document the transmission of large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve to the real economy using rich borrower-linked mortgage-market data and an identification strategy based on mortgage market segmentation. We find that central bank QE1 MBS purchases... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; MBS; Quantitative Easing; LSAP; Refinancing; Deleveraging; HARP; GSE; Central Banking; Global Range; Financing and Loans; Credit; United States

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October 2014 (Revised February 2017)
Case

A Currency We Can Call Our Own: Populism, Banking Crises, and Exchange Rate Crises in Argentina, 1946–2002

By: Rafael Di Tella

The case describes Argentina's struggle to establish a credible monetary system under populist pressures and the recurrent use of exchange rate stabilization plans. It focuses on two episodes where there was "too little money" in the economy: during the hyperinflation... View Details

Keywords: Debt Crisis; Hyperinflation; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Currency Exchange Rate; Argentina

2012
Working Paper

Mexico's Financial Crisis of 1994-1995

By: Aldo Musacchio

This paper explains the causes leading to the Mexican crisis of 1994-1995 (known as "The Tequila Crisis"), and its short- and long-term consequences. It argues that excessive enthusiasm on the part of foreign investors, not based on Mexico's fundamentals, and weak... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Foreign Direct Investment; Banks and Banking; Government and Politics; Currency Exchange Rate; Banking Industry; Mexico

March 2014
Article

Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry

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2011
Working Paper

Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time-series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry

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February 2008 (Revised April 2009)
Case

Chronology of the Asian Financial Crisis

By: Laura Alfaro, Rafael Di Tella and Renee Kim

In July 1997, Thailand became the first Asian "tiger" economy to abandon its fixed exchange rate system in response to speculative attacks on its currency. Investors started to flee Asia, and the crisis rapidly spread to other countries. Central banks spent billions of... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Currency Exchange Rate; Central Banking; Policy; Crisis Management; Asia; Thailand