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All HBS Web
(2,812)
- News (445)
- Research (2,156)
- Events (39)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,374)
- August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
- Case
LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)
By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
LendingClub was founded in 2006 as an alternative, peer-to-peer lending model to connect individual borrowers to individual investor-lenders through an online platform. Since 2014 the company has worked with institutional investors at scale. While the company assigns...
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Keywords:
Data Science;
Data Analytics;
Investing;
Loans;
Investment;
Financing and Loans;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Business Model
Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 119-020, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
- February 2024
- Article
Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials
By: Marcella Alsan, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein and Heidi L. Williams
This article examines the consequences and causes of low enrollment of Black patients in clinical
trials. We develop a simple model of similarity-based extrapolation that predicts that evidence is
more relevant for decision-making by physicians and patients when it...
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Keywords:
Representation;
Racial Disparity;
Health Testing and Trials;
Race;
Equality and Inequality;
Innovation and Invention;
Pharmaceutical Industry
Alsan, Marcella, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein, and Heidi L. Williams. "Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 1 (February 2024): 575–635.
- March 2002 (Revised December 2002)
- Background Note
A Note on Corporate Venturing and New Business Creation
By: David A. Garvin
Presents an introduction and overview of corporate venturing. Describes the need for companies to create new businesses, the stages in the process, predictable problems and challenges, the strengths and weaknesses of alternative approaches such as internal venture...
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Keywords:
Business Plan;
Business Startups;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Venture Capital;
Problems and Challenges
Garvin, David A. "A Note on Corporate Venturing and New Business Creation." Harvard Business School Background Note 302-091, March 2002. (Revised December 2002.)
- October 2016 (Revised April 2018)
- Case
DataXu: Selling Ad Tech
By: Frank V. Cespedes, John Deighton, Lisa Cox and Olivia Hull
DataXu served marketers by buying digital advertising for brands using its demand-side platform. It sought a way to build a more predictable revenue stream in the very transactional media marketplace, and hoped that two new marketing analytics products would give it a...
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Keywords:
Sales Management;
Pricing;
Programmatic Ad Buying;
"Marketing Analytics";
Advertising Technology;
Sales;
Digital Marketing;
Marketing Strategy;
Advertising Campaigns;
Product Launch;
Product Positioning;
Media;
Technology Industry;
Advertising Industry;
Boston;
Massachusetts
Cespedes, Frank V., John Deighton, Lisa Cox, and Olivia Hull. "DataXu: Selling Ad Tech." Harvard Business School Case 817-012, October 2016. (Revised April 2018.)
- 2001
- Working Paper
When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms
By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that...
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Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 8750, December 2001. (First draft in 2001.)
- July 1986 (Revised August 1987)
- Background Note
Note on Comparative Advantage
By: David B. Yoffie and John J. Coleman
Discusses David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage and the refinement of his model developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. Presents several criticisms of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, including Wassily Leontief's empirical demonstration that the nature of...
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Yoffie, David B., and John J. Coleman. "Note on Comparative Advantage." Harvard Business School Background Note 387-023, July 1986. (Revised August 1987.)
- 31 Oct 2004
- What Do You Think?
Should the Wisdom of Crowds Influence Our Thinking About Leadership?
have been found to be better than a few experts at everything from estimating the true magnitude of things (as in guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar) to diagnosing causes of problems (as in determining that the O-ring seals were the primary cause of the...
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Keywords:
by James Heskett
- August 1998
- Background Note
Selling Books Online in Mid-1998
By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Carin-Isabel Knoop and Cate Reavis
Provides an overview of the trends and predictions for the online book retail industry as of August 1998 and the current status of Amazon.com, BarnesandNoble.com, and other main players' online ventures.
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Rayport, Jeffrey F., Carin-Isabel Knoop, and Cate Reavis. "Selling Books Online in Mid-1998." Harvard Business School Background Note 899-038, August 1998.
- 08 Dec 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Decoding Inside Information
- 2008
- Working Paper
Catering through Nominal Share Prices
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices. The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuation on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels, and vice-versa. Using measures of time-varying catering...
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Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Catering through Nominal Share Prices." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w13762, January 2008. (First Draft in 2007.)
- May 2006
- Case
Nokia in 2003
By: Paul M. Healy
Examines the challenges facing a money manager who owns stock in Nokia, the leading wireless handset provider. Two analysts covering the stock make very different predictions about the economies of the industry, Nokia's future performance, and stock recommendations....
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- 2007
- Working Paper
Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle
A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the...
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- January–February 2023
- Article
Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions
By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas
We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more...
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Epidemics;
Analytics and Data Science;
Health Pandemics;
AI and Machine Learning;
Forecasting and Prediction
Li, Michael Lingzhi, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis, and Dimitris Bertsimas. "Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions." Operations Research 71, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 184–201.
- October 2010
- Article
Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity
This paper develops an economic theory of the costs and benefits of corporate culture-in the sense of shared beliefs and values in order to study the effects of "culture clash" in mergers and acquisitions. I first use a simple analytical framework to show that shared...
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Keywords:
Cost vs Benefits;
Organizational Culture;
Economics;
Information Management;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Values and Beliefs;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Framework;
Satisfaction;
Motivation and Incentives;
Power and Influence;
Communication
Van den Steen, Eric. "Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity." Management Science 56, no. 10 (October 2010): 1718–1738.
- 25 Apr 2007
- Research & Ideas
Feeling Stuck? Getting Past Impasse
the crisis. We realize that our old ways are not working. It's not a matter of staying up late, working harder, and getting in earlier. Emotionally there's the feeling of being stuck. And then some predictable things happen in the second...
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Keywords:
by Martha Lagace
- Working Paper
An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces
By: Flora Feng, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan and Cait Lamberton
Celebrities have extraordinary abilities to attract and influence others. Predicting celebrity visual potential is important in the domains of business, politics, media, and entertainment. Can we use human faces to predict celebrity visual potential? If so, which...
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Feng, Flora, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan, and Cait Lamberton. "An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 4071188, November 2023.
- 2010
- Working Paper
Decoding Inside Information
By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski
Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trades. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms....
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Stocks;
Financial Markets;
Investment;
Investment Return;
Investment Portfolio;
Market Transactions
Cohen, Lauren, Christopher Malloy, and Lukasz Pomorski. "Decoding Inside Information." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 16454, October 2010. (Winner of Institute for Quantitative Investment Research (INQUIRE) Grant presented by Institute for Quantitative Investment Research. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance.)
- Article
Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about...
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Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V.R.R. Jose, and K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 1110–1130.