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All HBS Web
(2,872)
- Faculty Publications (951)
- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio...
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Keywords:
Bubble;
Market Efficiency;
Predictability;
Price Bubble;
Stocks;
Price;
Forecasting and Prediction
Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- Article
Faithful and Customizable Explanations of Black Box Models
By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Ece Kamar, Rich Caruana and Jure Leskovec
As predictive models increasingly assist human experts (e.g., doctors) in day-to-day decision making, it is crucial for experts to be able to explore and understand how such models behave in different feature subspaces in order to know if and when to trust them. To...
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Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Ece Kamar, Rich Caruana, and Jure Leskovec. "Faithful and Customizable Explanations of Black Box Models." Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society (2019).
- Article
Maimonides' Ladder: States of Mutual Knowledge and the Perception of Charitability
By: Julian De Freitas, Peter DiScioli, Kyle A. Thomas and Steven Pinker
Why do people esteem anonymous charitable giving? We connect normative theories of charitability
(captured in Maimonides’ Ladder of Charity) with evolutionary theories of partner choice to test predictions on how attributions of charitability are affected by states of...
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Keywords:
Charity;
Reciprocity;
Partner Choice;
Common Knowledge;
Philanthropy and Charitable Giving;
Knowledge;
Perception
De Freitas, Julian, Peter DiScioli, Kyle A. Thomas, and Steven Pinker. "Maimonides' Ladder: States of Mutual Knowledge and the Perception of Charitability." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 148, no. 1 (January 2019): 158–173.
- January 2019
- Article
Making Moves Matter: Experimental Evidence on Incentivizing Bureaucrats Through Performance-Based Postings
By: Adnan Q. Khan, Asim Ijaz Khwaja and Benjamin A. Olken
Bureaucracies often post staff to better or worse locations, ostensibly to provide incentives. Yet we know little about whether this works, with heterogeneity in preferences over postings impacting effectiveness. We propose a performance-ranked serial dictatorship...
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Keywords:
Serial Dictatorship Mechanism;
Employment;
Geographic Location;
Motivation and Incentives;
Performance
Khan, Adnan Q., Asim Ijaz Khwaja, and Benjamin A. Olken. "Making Moves Matter: Experimental Evidence on Incentivizing Bureaucrats Through Performance-Based Postings." American Economic Review 109, no. 1 (January 2019): 237–270.
- 2019
- Book
The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power
By: Shoshana Zuboff
In this masterwork of original thinking and research, Shoshana Zuboff provides startling insights into the phenomenon that she has named surveillance capitalism. The stakes could not be higher: a global architecture of behavior modification threatens human nature in...
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Keywords:
Consumer Profiling;
Consumer Behavior;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Information Technology;
Power and Influence;
Ethics;
Society;
Transformation
Zuboff, Shoshana. The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power. New York: PublicAffairs, 2019.
- November 2018
- Case
Komatsu Komtrax: Asset Tracking Meets Demand Forecasting
By: Willy Shih, Paul Hong and YoungWon Park
Komatsu's Komtrax system started as a way of remotely monitoring and tracking equipment for the purpose of improving operational efficiency. This case follows its evolution towards other uses including demand forecasting for its sales, marketing, and production...
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Keywords:
Big Data;
Manufacturing;
Manufacturing Industry;
Data Strategy;
Internet Of Things;
Construction;
Production;
Analytics and Data Science;
Strategy;
Performance Efficiency;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Industrial Products Industry;
Construction Industry;
Japan
Shih, Willy, Paul Hong, and YoungWon Park. "Komatsu Komtrax: Asset Tracking Meets Demand Forecasting." Harvard Business School Case 619-022, November 2018.
- 2018
- Article
Knowledge about Tuberculosis and Infection Prevention Behavior: A Nine City Longitudinal Study from India
By: Sophie Huddart, Thomas Bossuroy, Vincent Pons, Siddhartha Baral, Madhukar Pai and Clara Delavallade
Background
Improving patients’ tuberculosis (TB) knowledge is a salient component of TB control strategies. Patient knowledge of TB may encourage infection prevention behaviors and improve treatment adherence. The purpose of this study is to examine how... View Details
Improving patients’ tuberculosis (TB) knowledge is a salient component of TB control strategies. Patient knowledge of TB may encourage infection prevention behaviors and improve treatment adherence. The purpose of this study is to examine how... View Details
Huddart, Sophie, Thomas Bossuroy, Vincent Pons, Siddhartha Baral, Madhukar Pai, and Clara Delavallade. "Knowledge about Tuberculosis and Infection Prevention Behavior: A Nine City Longitudinal Study from India." PLoS ONE 13, no. 10 (2018).
- October 2018
- Article
The Operational Value of Social Media Information
By: Ruomeng Cui, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno and Dennis J. Zhang
While the value of using social media information has been established in multiple business contexts, the field of operations and supply chain management have not yet explored the possibilities it offers in improving firms' operational decisions. This study attempts to...
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Cui, Ruomeng, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno, and Dennis J. Zhang. "The Operational Value of Social Media Information." Special Issue on Big Data in Supply Chain Management. Production and Operations Management 27, no. 10 (October 2018): 1749–1774.
- Article
Why Grit Requires Perseverance and Passion to Positively Predict Performance
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Andreas Wihler, Erica R. Bailey and Adam D. Galinsky
Prior studies linking grit—defined as perseverance and passion for long-term goals—to performance are beset by contradictory evidence. As a result, commentators have increasingly declared that grit has limited effects. We propose that this inconsistent evidence has...
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Keywords:
Grit;
Perseverance;
Passion;
Motivation;
Personal Characteristics;
Emotions;
Performance;
Motivation and Incentives
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Andreas Wihler, Erica R. Bailey, and Adam D. Galinsky. "Why Grit Requires Perseverance and Passion to Positively Predict Performance." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 40 (October 2, 2018): 9980–9985.
- Article
Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Identifying and Exploring Firm Heterogeneous Effects
By: Juan Alcácer, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk and Gonçalo Pacheco-de-Almeida
Strategy aims at understanding the differential effects of firms’ actions on performance. However, standard regression models estimate only the average effects of these actions across firms. Our paper discusses how random coefficient models (RCMs) may generate new...
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Alcácer, Juan, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk, and Gonçalo Pacheco-de-Almeida. "Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Identifying and Exploring Firm Heterogeneous Effects." Strategy Science 3, no. 3 (September 2018): 481–553.
- September 26, 2018
- Article
Ownership and Power Structure: Together at Last
By: Laura Alfaro, Nicholas Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew Newman, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
Economists have largely ignored the deep interdependency between integration and delegation. This column describes a new theory of integration and delegation choices aimed at shedding light on how these distinct elements of organizational design interact. Contrary to...
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Alfaro, Laura, Nicholas Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew Newman, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Ownership and Power Structure: Together at Last." Vox, CEPR Policy Portal (September 26, 2018).
- September 2018
- Article
Religious Shoppers Spend Less Money
By: Didem Kurt, J. Jeffrey Inman and Francesca Gino
Although religion is a central aspect of life for many people across the globe, there is scant research on how religion affects people’s non-religious routines. In the present research, we identify a frequent consumption activity that is influenced by religiosity:...
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Kurt, Didem, J. Jeffrey Inman, and Francesca Gino. "Religious Shoppers Spend Less Money." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 78 (September 2018): 116–124.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century
By: Ufuk Akcigit, John Grigsby, Tom Nicholas and Stefanie Stantcheva
This paper studies the effect of corporate and personal taxes on innovation in the United States over the 20th century. We use three new datasets: a panel of the universe of inventors who patent since 1920; a dataset of the employment, location, and patents of firms...
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Akcigit, Ufuk, John Grigsby, Tom Nicholas, and Stefanie Stantcheva. "Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 24982, September 2018. (Forthcoming in Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
- Article
The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky
Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal...
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Keywords:
Climate Change;
Energy;
Environmental Sustainability;
Household;
Behavior;
Values and Beliefs;
Forecasting and Prediction
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman, and Adam D. Galinsky. "The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation." Nature Human Behaviour 2, no. 10 (October 2018): 757–764.
- 2021
- Working Paper
From Immigrants to Americans: Race and Assimilation During the Great Migration
By: Vasiliki Fouka, Soumyajit Mazumder and Marco Tabellini
How does the arrival of a new minority group affect the social acceptance and outcomes of existing minorities? We study this question in the context of the First Great Migration. Between 1915 and 1930, 1.5 million African Americans moved from the U.S. South to Northern...
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Fouka, Vasiliki, Soumyajit Mazumder, and Marco Tabellini. "From Immigrants to Americans: Race and Assimilation During the Great Migration." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-018, August 2018. (Revised May 2021. Forthcoming at Review of Economic Studies. Also appears in VoxEU, The New York Times, Broadstreet and in the Skepticast.)
- August 2018
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,...
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Keywords:
Diffusion Processes;
Product Adoption;
Marketing;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Demand and Consumers;
Adoption;
Product Launch
Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)." Harvard Business School Case 519-018, August 2018.
- August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
- Case
Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)
By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
This case follows VP of Marketing, Jill Wehunt, and analyst Mark Morse as they tackle a predictive analytics project to increase sales in the Mom & Baby unit of a nationally recognized retailer, PriceMart. Wehunt observed that in the midst of the chaos that surrounded...
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Keywords:
Data Science;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Consumer Behavior;
Forecasting and Prediction
Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)." Harvard Business School Case 119-025, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
- August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
- Supplement
Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)
By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the...
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Keywords:
Data Science;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Customers;
Household;
Forecasting and Prediction
Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-026, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
- August 2018 (Revised April 2019)
- Supplement
Chateau Winery (B): Supervised Learning
By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
This case builds directly on “Chateau Winery (A).” In this case, Bill Booth, marketing manager of a regional wine distributor, shifts to supervised learning techniques to try to predict which deals he should offer to customers based on the purchasing behavior of those...
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Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Chateau Winery (B): Supervised Learning." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-024, August 2018. (Revised April 2019.)