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(2,833)
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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,833)
- News (448)
- Research (2,171)
- Events (39)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,382)
- October 2019
- Article
Making Sense of Recommendations
By: Michael Yeomans, Anuj Shah, Sendhil Mullainathan and Jon Kleinberg
Computer algorithms are increasingly being used to predict people's preferences and make recommendations. Although people frequently encounter these algorithms because they are cheap to scale, we do not know how they compare to human judgment. Here, we compare computer... View Details
Keywords: Recommender Systems; Artificial Intelligence; Interpretability; Information Technology; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Attitudes
Yeomans, Michael, Anuj Shah, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Jon Kleinberg. "Making Sense of Recommendations." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 32, no. 4 (October 2019): 403–414.
- 31 Oct 2004
- What Do You Think?
Should the Wisdom of Crowds Influence Our Thinking About Leadership?
have been found to be better than a few experts at everything from estimating the true magnitude of things (as in guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar) to diagnosing causes of problems (as in determining that the O-ring seals were the primary cause of the... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
Ashley V. Whillans
Ashley Whillans is the Volpert Family Associate Professor of Business Administration at the Harvard Business School, where she teaches the Motivation and Incentives course to MBA students. Professor Whillans earned her PhD in Social Psychology from the University of... View Details
- 08 Dec 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Decoding Inside Information
- August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
- Case
LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)
By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
LendingClub was founded in 2006 as an alternative, peer-to-peer lending model to connect individual borrowers to individual investor-lenders through an online platform. Since 2014 the company has worked with institutional investors at scale. While the company assigns... View Details
Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Investing; Loans; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Model
Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 119-020, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
- August 1998
- Background Note
Selling Books Online in Mid-1998
By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Carin-Isabel Knoop and Cate Reavis
Provides an overview of the trends and predictions for the online book retail industry as of August 1998 and the current status of Amazon.com, BarnesandNoble.com, and other main players' online ventures. View Details
Rayport, Jeffrey F., Carin-Isabel Knoop, and Cate Reavis. "Selling Books Online in Mid-1998." Harvard Business School Background Note 899-038, August 1998.
- January–February 2023
- Article
Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions
By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas
We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Epidemics; Analytics and Data Science; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
Li, Michael Lingzhi, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis, and Dimitris Bertsimas. "Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions." Operations Research 71, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 184–201.
- 2001
- Working Paper
When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms
By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details
Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 8750, December 2001. (First draft in 2001.)
- February 2024
- Article
Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials
By: Marcella Alsan, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein and Heidi L. Williams
This article examines the consequences and causes of low enrollment of Black patients in clinical
trials. We develop a simple model of similarity-based extrapolation that predicts that evidence is
more relevant for decision-making by physicians and patients when it... View Details
Keywords: Representation; Racial Disparity; Health Testing and Trials; Race; Equality and Inequality; Innovation and Invention; Pharmaceutical Industry
Alsan, Marcella, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein, and Heidi L. Williams. "Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 1 (February 2024): 575–635.
- Article
Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V.R.R. Jose, and K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 1110–1130.
- July 1986 (Revised August 1987)
- Background Note
Note on Comparative Advantage
By: David B. Yoffie and John J. Coleman
Discusses David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage and the refinement of his model developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. Presents several criticisms of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, including Wassily Leontief's empirical demonstration that the nature of... View Details
Yoffie, David B., and John J. Coleman. "Note on Comparative Advantage." Harvard Business School Background Note 387-023, July 1986. (Revised August 1987.)
- Article
Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates
By: J. Peter Scoblic
Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward... View Details
Keywords: National Security; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; History
Scoblic, J. Peter. "Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates." Texas National Security Review 1, no. 4 (August 2018).
- Article
Why Do Pro Forma and Street Earnings Not Reflect Changes in GAAP? Evidence from SFAS 123R
By: Ian D. Gow, Mary E. Barth and Daniel Taylor
This study examines how key market participants—managers and analysts—responded to SFAS 123R's controversial requirement that firms recognize stock-based compensation expense. Despite mandated recognition of the expense, some firms' managers exclude it from pro forma... View Details
Gow, Ian D., Mary E. Barth, and Daniel Taylor. "Why Do Pro Forma and Street Earnings Not Reflect Changes in GAAP? Evidence from SFAS 123R." Review of Accounting Studies 17, no. 3 (September 2012): 526–562.
- August 2003
- Article
When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms
By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details
Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms." Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 3 (August 2003): 969–1006.
- May 2006
- Case
Nokia in 2003
By: Paul M. Healy
Examines the challenges facing a money manager who owns stock in Nokia, the leading wireless handset provider. Two analysts covering the stock make very different predictions about the economies of the industry, Nokia's future performance, and stock recommendations.... View Details
- March 2002 (Revised December 2002)
- Background Note
A Note on Corporate Venturing and New Business Creation
By: David A. Garvin
Presents an introduction and overview of corporate venturing. Describes the need for companies to create new businesses, the stages in the process, predictable problems and challenges, the strengths and weaknesses of alternative approaches such as internal venture... View Details
Keywords: Business Plan; Business Startups; Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Problems and Challenges
Garvin, David A. "A Note on Corporate Venturing and New Business Creation." Harvard Business School Background Note 302-091, March 2002. (Revised December 2002.)
- 2008
- Working Paper
Catering through Nominal Share Prices
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices. The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuation on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels, and vice-versa. Using measures of time-varying catering... View Details
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Catering through Nominal Share Prices." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w13762, January 2008. (First Draft in 2007.)
- Article
Soul and Machine (Learning)
By: Davide Proserpio, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Burnap Alex, Tong Guo, Dokyun (DK) Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu and Hema Yoganarasimhan
Machine learning is bringing us self-driving cars, medical diagnoses, and language translation, but how can machine learning help marketers improve marketing decisions? Machine learning models predict extremely well, are scalable to “big data,” and are a natural fit to... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Marketing Applications; Knowledge; Technological Innovation; Core Relationships; Marketing; Applications and Software
Proserpio, Davide, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Burnap Alex, Tong Guo, Dokyun (DK) Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu, and Hema Yoganarasimhan. "Soul and Machine (Learning)." Marketing Letters 31, no. 4 (December 2020): 393–404.