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Show Results For
-
All HBS Web
(2,812)
- News (445)
- Research (2,156)
- Events (39)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,374)
- 05 Dec 2012
- What Do You Think?
Should Managers Bother Listening to Predictions?
Summing Up Can Managers Afford to Ignore Predictions in Planning? There is a healthy skepticism when it comes to the reliability of predictions as a basis for planning. Donald Kortalon, commenting on this...
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by James Heskett
- 06 Oct 2008
- Research & Ideas
Updating a Classic: Writing a Great Business Plan
business plan and its relation to new venture formation. I tried to explain that a business plan can't be a tightly crafted prediction of the future but rather a depiction of how events might unfold and a road map for change. I emphasized...
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by Sean Silverthorne
- August 2006
- Article
Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by...
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Keywords:
Behavioral Finance;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Motivation and Incentives;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Volatility
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1645–1680.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight
By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that...
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Keywords:
Experience;
Interdependency;
Strategic Foresight;
Crowdfunding;
Timeline;
Delay;
Forecasting;
Entrepreneurship;
Learning;
Complexity;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Product Development;
Planning
Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-123, January 2021. (Revised May 2021.)
- February 2006 (Revised September 2007)
- Background Note
Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets
Discusses platform structure in new networked markets, that is, whether a market that exhibits network effects will be served by a single platform or by rival platforms. Defines "platforms" and "platform structure"; describes factors that influence the odds that a...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Growth Management;
Network Effects;
Digital Platforms;
Internet and the Web
Eisenmann, Thomas R. "Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets." Harvard Business School Background Note 806-131, February 2006. (Revised September 2007.)
- October 2002 (Revised May 2021)
- Case
Group Process in the Challenger Launch Decision (A)
By: Amy C. Edmondson and Laura Feldman
The night before the launch of the Challenger shuttle, officials from Morton Thiokol (Solid Rocket Booster manufacturer) and NASA participated in a teleconference to discuss whether to postpone the shuttle launch due to predicted low temperatures at Kennedy Space...
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Keywords:
Process Analysis;
Problems and Challenges;
Groups and Teams;
Engineering;
Risk Management;
Analysis;
Decision Making;
Aerospace Industry;
United States
Edmondson, Amy C., and Laura Feldman. "Group Process in the Challenger Launch Decision (A)." Harvard Business School Case 603-068, October 2002. (Revised May 2021.)
- May 2021 (Revised February 2024)
- Teaching Note
THE YES: Reimagining the Future of E-Commerce with Artificial Intelligence (AI)
By: Ayelet Israeli and Jill Avery
THE YES, a multi-brand shopping app launched in May 2020 offered a new type of buying experience for women’s fashion, driven by a sophisticated algorithm that used data science and machine learning to create and deliver a personalized store for every shopper, based on...
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Keywords:
Data;
Data Analytics;
Artificial Intelligence;
AI;
AI Algorithms;
AI Creativity;
Fashion;
Retail;
Retail Analytics;
E-Commerce Strategy;
Platform;
Platforms;
Big Data;
Preference Elicitation;
Predictive Analytics;
App Development;
"Marketing Analytics";
Advertising;
Mobile App;
Mobile Marketing;
Apparel;
Online Advertising;
Referral Rewards;
Referrals;
Female Ceo;
Female Entrepreneur;
Female Protagonist;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Creativity;
Marketing Strategy;
Brands and Branding;
Consumer Behavior;
Demand and Consumers;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Marketing Channels;
Digital Marketing;
Internet and the Web;
Mobile and Wireless Technology;
AI and Machine Learning;
E-commerce;
Digital Platforms;
Fashion Industry;
Retail Industry;
Apparel and Accessories Industry;
Consumer Products Industry;
United States
- 2018
- Working Paper
Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning
By: Xiaojia Guo, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck
Problem definition: In collaboration with Heathrow Airport, we develop a predictive system that generates quantile forecasts of transfer passengers’ connection times. Sampling from the distribution of individual passengers’ connection times, the system also produces...
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Keywords:
Quantile Forecasts;
Regression Tree;
Copula;
Passenger Flow Management;
Data-driven Operations;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Data and Data Sets
Guo, Xiaojia, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Bert De Reyck. "Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-040, October 2018.
- 28 Jul 2009
- Research Event
Business Summit: Real Estate
next steps in real estate? This panel discussed the global real estate crisis, the future of securitization, and predictions for the future of the U.S. real estate market. After years of abundant capital and rising asset prices, the...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency
By: Zoë B. Cullen and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson
The public discourse around pay transparency has focused on the direct effect: how workers seek
to rectify newly-disclosed pay inequities through renegotiations. The question of how wage-setting
and hiring practices of the firm respond in equilibrium has received...
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- 2005
- Working Paper
Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying...
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Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10449, April 2005. (First draft in 2003.)
- 2009
- Article
Social Structure Shapes Cultural Stereotypes and Emotions: A Causal Test of the Stereotype Content Model
By: P. Caprariello, A.J.C. Cuddy and S.T. Fiske
The stereotype content model (SCM) posits that social structure predicts specific cultural stereotypes and associated emotional prejudices (Fiske et al., 2002). No prior evidence at a societal level has manipulated both structural predictors and measured both...
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Keywords:
Competency and Skills;
Mathematical Methods;
Emotions;
Personal Characteristics;
Prejudice and Bias;
Status and Position;
Culture;
Competition
Caprariello, P., A.J.C. Cuddy, and S.T. Fiske. "Social Structure Shapes Cultural Stereotypes and Emotions: A Causal Test of the Stereotype Content Model." Group Processes & Intergroup Relations 12, no. 2 (2009): 147–155.
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted...
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Keywords:
Price;
Investment Return;
AI and Machine Learning;
Valuation;
Cash Flow;
Forecasting and Prediction
Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio." Working Paper, November 2023.
- 16 Mar 2009
- Research & Ideas
When the Internet Runs Out of IP Addresses
The Internet is running out of room. Experts predict that in two or three years we will run out of Web addresses, so-called IP addresses, that can be assigned to new Internet-based sites and services. Each site is assigned a unique number...
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- 2014
- Chapter
Appetite, Consumption, and Choice in the Human Brain
By: Brian Knutson and Uma R. Karmarkar
Although linked, researchers have long distinguished appetitive from consummatory phases of reward processing. Recent improvements in the spatial and temporal resolution of neuroimaging techniques have allowed researchers to separately visualize different stages of...
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Knutson, Brian, and Uma R. Karmarkar. "Appetite, Consumption, and Choice in the Human Brain." Chap. 9 in The Interdisciplinary Science of Consumption, edited by Stephanie D. Preston, Morten L. Kringelbach, and Brian Knutson, 163–184. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2014.
- Research Summary
Entrepreneurial Management
Howard H. Stevenson is researching and writing on the need for and consequences of predictability. In work designed for a managerial audience, he is examining the roles played by organizations, cultures, and ethical systems in enabling individuals to predict the...
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- April 12, 2022
- Article
Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States
By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models...
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Health Pandemics;
Mathematical Methods;
Partners and Partnerships
Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li, and et al. "Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States." e2113561119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (April 12, 2022). (See full author list here.)
- 25 Oct 2004
- Research & Ideas
Planning for Surprises
The train wreck that was Enron's collapse is only one big, blatant example of how some disasters catch us unawares—but shouldn't. In fact, according to Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins, many surprises in all types and sizes of organizations are View Details
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by Martha Lagace
Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World
Why are some firms better and faster than others at adapting their use of customer data to respond to changing or uncertain marketing conditions? A common thread across faster-acting firms is the use of AI models to predict outcomes at various stages of the customer... View Details
- Forthcoming
- Article
Is There Too Little Antitrust Enforcement in the U.S. Hospital Sector?
By: Zarek Brot-Goldberg, Zack Cooper, Stuart Craig and Lev Klarnet
From 2002 to 2020, there were over 1,000 mergers of U.S. hospitals. During this period, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) took enforcement actions against 13 transactions. However, using the FTC’s standard screening tools, we find that 20% of these mergers could have...
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Keywords:
Monopoly;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Competition;
Health Industry
Brot-Goldberg, Zarek, Zack Cooper, Stuart Craig, and Lev Klarnet. "Is There Too Little Antitrust Enforcement in the U.S. Hospital Sector?" American Economic Review: Insights (forthcoming).